Last week, we printed prominent market forecasts that fell well short of Treasurer Seth Magaziner expected Pension Plan rate of return of 7.5%. I guaranteed in the article that I would beat Magaziner’s return from January 31, 2017, thru January 31, 2018, using only one investment, a Beach Street Buffer based on the S&P 500 (Exchange Traded Fund known as SPY).
But, I also want you, interested Rhode Islanders above age 21, to challenge the Treasurer by selecting your own mix of Cash, Equity Indices and Fixed Income.
Beach Street Financial Services LLC is announcing a contest to outperform the State of Rhode Island Pension Plan over the next year. Entries will be free but limited to 2 per person. This is one reader's chance to win $500 dollars and to have $500 dollars contributed to their favorite charity.
As you know, the Treasurer pays lots of fees to professionals to manage Private Equity investments, Hedge Funds, Real Estate and Venture Capital funds. We believe he doesn’t need any of these investments and that they are politically driven and that he can achieve higher returns with less risk and at lower costs. Just last week despite claims of “back to the basics” he and Cliffwater and the Investment Commission put $57.5 million into alternative energy investments.
Entrants will be asked to create a portfolio of Stock Indexes, fixed income Exchange Trade Fund AGG and/or cash. A sample Portfolio entry would be chosen from the following financial instruments:
1) SPY – the first Exchange Traded Fund, introduced by my father Ivers Riley, tracks the performance of the S&P 500.
2) IWM – an ETF tracking the Russell 2000 index of small cap Stocks.
3) AGG – an ETF, the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond -The investment seeks to track the investment results of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. The index measures the performance of the total U.S. investment-grade bond market. The index includes investment-grade U.S. Treasury bonds, government-related bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed pass-through securities.
Sample Portfolio Entrant 1
57% SPY, 14% IWM, 23% AGG and 6% cash.
All contestants will be competing against the portfolio return of Treasurer Magaziner, determined over a one year period from 1/31/2017 until 1/31/2018.
Contestants will also be competing against the traditional Prudent Portfolio for Pension Assets known as “60/40” which will consist of 60% SPY and 40% AGG. In addition to those portfolios, contestants will be competing with Beach Street Financial Services (me) and a “Beach Street Buffer” available only to clients of Beach Street. The Beach Street buffer is mathematically designed to produce a pre-defined outcome based on either the SPY or IWM indices.
Importantly, Magaziner can and will continue to actively manage his portfolio in order to navigate the markets, the rest of us will stay with our picks on January 31, 2017, and can make no changes all year. Treasurer Magaziner's current portfolio composition and track record can be found here.
Over the last 3 years ended October 31, 2016 (because the site is not updated) ERSRI (Magaziner) produced 3.9% returns versus 60/40 return of 3.5% and versus expected returns of 7.5%. While we wouldn’t be surprised if many of you outperform Mr. Magaziner in 2017, we would absolutely be shocked if any of you outperformed both Magaziner and our Beach Street Buffer, but if you do manage to beat us both, that one entrant with the best return that also out beats us will receive $500 from me. If you beat both of us and the expected rate of return I will also contribute $500 to your favorite Charity.
Final rules and values will be subject to what we can legally offer and in the interim questions can be directed to [email protected]. Details and standings will be available here.
Good luck to all of you. Maybe we can teach the Treasurer something.
Michael G. Riley is vice chair at Rhode Island Center for Freedom and Prosperity and is managing member and founder of Coastal Management Group, LLC. Riley has 35 years of experience in the financial industry, having managed divisions of PaineWebber, LETCO, and TD Securities (TD Bank). He has been quoted in Barron’s, Wall Street Transcript, NY Post, and various other print media and also appeared on NBC News, Yahoo TV, and CNBC.
Timeline - Rhode Island Pension Reform
2005-2010
In the five years before Raimondo was elected, pension changes included a decrease in established retirement age from 65 to 62, increased eligibility to retire, and modified COLA adjustments.
Rhode Island increased mandatory employee contributions for new and current employees. New Mexico was the only other state to mandate current employees to increase their contributions.
Gina Raimondo defeats opponent Kernan King in the election for General Treasurer of Rhode Island using her platform to reform the structure of Rhode Island's public employee pension system. She received 201,625 votes, more than any other politician on the 2010 Rhode Island ballot.
April 2011
Raimondo leads effort to reduce the state’s assumed rate of return on pension investments from 8.25 to 7.5%.
Her proposal includes plans to suspend the Cost of Living Adjustment (which allows for raises corresponding with rates of inflation for retirees), changing the retirement age to match Social Security ages, and adding a defined contribution plan.
May 2011
Raimondo releases “Truth in Numbers”, a report detailing the pension crisis and offering possible solutions. She continues to work to raise public support for her proposal.
"Decades of ignoring actuarial assumptions led to lower taxpayer & employee contributions being made into the system." - Gina Raimondo (Truth in Numbers)
Governor Lincoln Chafee and General Treasurer Gina Raimondo present their pension reform legislation proposal before a joint session of the General Assembly.
“Our fundamental goal throughout this process has been to provide retirement security through reforms that are fair to the three main interested parties: retirees, current employees and the taxpayer…I join the General Treasurer in urging the General Assembly to take decisive action and adopt these reforms.”- Gov. Lincoln Chafee
October 2011
Head of Rhode Island firefighters’ union accuses Raimondo of “cooking the books” to create a pension problem where one did not exist. Paul Valletta Jr. states that Raimondo raised Rhode Islanders’ assumed mortality rate to increase liability to the state, using data from 1994 instead of updated information from 2008, and lowered the anticipated rate of return on state investments.
“You’re going after the retirees! In this economic time, how could you possibly take a pension away?” Paul Valletta Jr (Head of RI Firefighters' Union)
Read more from the firefighters' battle with Raimondo here.
Check out the New York Times' take on RI's pension crisis here.
November 17, 2011
The Rhode Island Retirement Security Act (RIRSA) is enacted by the General Assembly with bipartisan support in both chambers. RIRSA’s passing is slated to reduce the unfunded liability of RI’s pension system and increase its funding status by $3 billion and 60% respectively, level contributions to the pension system by taxpayers, save municipalities $100 million through lessened contributions to teacher and MERS pension systems, and lower the cost of borrowing.
Governor Lincoln Chafee signs RIRSA into law. According to a December 2011 Brown University poll, 60% of Rhode Island residents support the reform. Following its enactment, Raimondo holds regional sessions to educate public employees on the effects of the legislation on their retirement benefits.
Read about how Rhode Islanders react to RIRSA here.
January 2012
Raimondo hosts local workshops to explain the pension reforms across Rhode Island. She also receives national attention for her contributions to the state’s pension reforms. The reforms are given praise and many believe Rhode Island will serve as a template for other States’ future pension reforms.
Read Raimondo's feature in Institutional Investor here.
March - April 2012
Raimondo opposes Governor Chafee’s proposal to cut pension-funded deposits. She continued to provide workshops on the pension reforms.
“The present law is sound fiscal policy and should remain unchanged.” -George Nee (Rhode Island AFL-CIO President)
See WPRI's coverage of Chafee's attempt to cut pension fund deposits here.
December 5, 2012
Raimondo publicly opposes Governor Chafee’s meetings with union leaders in an effort to avoid judicial rulings on the pension reform package. In response, Chafee issues a statement supporting the negotiations.
Led by the Rhode Island State Association of Fire Fighters, unions protest the 2011 pension reform outside of the Omni Providence where Governor Lincoln Chafee and General Treasurer Gina Raimondo conduct a national conference of bond investors.
Read about Raimondo's discussion of distressed municipalities here.
April 2013
The pension plan comes under increased scrutiny as a result of the involvement of hedge funds and private equity firms. Reports show that $200 million of the state pension fund was lost in 2012.
"In short, impressive educational credentials and limited knowledge of investment industry realities made Raimondo ideally suited to champion private equity’s public pension money grab." - Ted Seidle (Forbes)
Read GoLocalProv's coverage of the State Pension Fund's losses here.
Read Ted Seidle's criticism of Raimondo in Forbes.
June 2013
Reports show that the State’s retirement system increased in 2013 by $20 million despite the reforms being put into effect the previous year.
Read GoLocalProv's investigation into the rising pension costs here.
September 2013
Matt Taibbi publishes an article in Rolling Stone detailing Raimondo’s use of hedge funds as a questionably ethical tool to aid with pension reform.