Roe Goes South, Biden’s Money Problems & Trump’s Truth Problems – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Roe Goes South, Biden’s Money Problems & Trump’s Truth Problems – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
“Issue Prominence” – A year ago, you’d be hard-pressed to find abortion as a top-tier political issue. Maybe it would have made the bottom of a Top Ten list, but now it has rocketed to the top three. It will be a particularly big issue in U.S. Senate races because the Senate has the sole authority to confirm Supreme Court justices. With the Senate currently tied 50-50, abortion will be a litmus test in some of the key battleground state Senate races. Those states include: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Florida and perhaps others. The losing side in the Roe ruling may suddenly be more motivated in these Senate Races. Advantage Democrats.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST
“Trump Gets a Bump” – I have said here often that the most consequential accomplishment of the Trump presidency is that he successfully appointed three conservatives to the U.S. Supreme Court. In Friday’s 6-3 ruling against Roe, that was evident. The Trump Court will be his legacy, whether he gets another term in the White House, or not. But it will help Trump’s slates of 2022 House and Senate candidates, and his efforts if he runs in 2024. Like it or not, advantage Trump.
“Gunning for Reelection” – The latest efforts at anti-violence legislation, with a focus of school security, deeper background checks, and a focus on mental illness, never would have happened if not for 15 GOP Senators who drove the bipartisan compromise bill to passage. Does it solve everything? No. But it provides cover when the public is shouting, “Do something,” after recent mass shootings. No major gun rights were lost, and the GOP guided the bill to victory. In November, advantage Republicans
“Money Matters” -- There’s an old saying about cash in politics… “Money is the mother’s milk of politics!” It’s stated as gospel, but election after election tells us that the person who has the most cash, doesn’t always win. Why? Well the statement is about donors and attempts to influence. The other side of the coin is money in the pockets of the voters or, the lack thereof. Donors don’t matter to average voters. People vote their wallets and purses, especially if times are as tough as they are now for so many. 8.6% inflation is tough to defend and run on. Disadvantage: incumbents, especially in marginal districts.
“The $5 Dollar-A-Gallon Blues” – I’ve seen voter backlashes a few times in my life, and it can whipsaw back and forth between Democrats and Republicans, depending on who is in power. Republicans were kings in 1980, 1994, and 2010. While Democrats made big inroads in 1992, 2006, and 2008, in great part due to economic tough times. 2022 is shaping up for a repeat of that. Democrats control the White House, the Senate, and the House. As I always say, in the Oval Office, there are no corners where you can hide. This is looking like 1980 all over again. Big advantage Republicans.
“Brother Can You Spare Two Dimes?” – On Wednesday President Biden addressed the nation and implored Congress to suspend the federal gas tax of 18.4 cents per gallon (yes, roughly the two dimes I was asking for). Biden also asked states to individually create their own gas tax holidays. The average state gas tax in the nation is 28 cents. Biden’s request met with a thud on Capitol Hill. Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia told me, that he would be voting “no” which will likely doom the bill with the current 50-50 split in the Senate. But, the Democrats tried to, “Do something” and Republicans are traditionally the party of tax cuts. Slight advantage Democrats.
“Defending the Defenseless” – The average price per gallon of regular gasoline hovers at $5, approximately double from a year ago. Whether it’s fair or not, the party in power gets blamed. It’s the reality of politics. Only five states have approved a gas tax holiday (suspending their state tax for a period of time). Other states such as West Virginia and Virginia gave it thoughtful consideration, but ultimately decided against the gas tax holiday, which surprises me in an election year.
“Finding 12,000 Votes” – The Washington Post published a recording of President Trump telling Georgia's Secretary of State to "find" enough votes to overturn the election. "I just want to find 11,780 votes," he told Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Raffensperger, Gov. Brian Kemp, and the Georgia Attorney General - all fellow Republicans - rebuffed Trump. He ran a slate of candidates against them in the primary, but all the Trump picks lost. Many Republican appointees to the Justice Department recounted Trump’s efforts to pressure them to overturn the election. Their testimony before the January 6th Committee was damning. Trump’s credibility on voter fraud claims is in tatters. Advantage, the truth!
“Switching Horses in Mid-Stream” – We’ve often discussed what I call, “The Trump Factor,” or how much influence the former president has on the 2022 Congressional elections. Nowhere is this more interesting than in Alabama, where Rep. Mo Brooks (R) Alabama, was a key supporter of Trump and his notion that the 2020 election was stolen. Brooks even encouraged the Capitol rioters on January 6th. All this brought a Trump endorsement of Brooks in the U.S. Senate race. Brooks then said something that offended Trump, who promptly withdrew his endorsement. Trump flopped to candidate Katie Britt, and sure enough she won Tuesday’s runoff over Brooks, 63 to 37 percent. Wow! Advantage Trump, especially if the GOP captures control of the Senate.