Politics: Past, Present, and Future 2021-22 – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - January 2, 2022

Politics: Past, Present, and Future 2021-22 – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - January 2, 2022

One year ends and a new one begins. We transition from a minor, off-year election cycle, into a major, full-blown midterm election year. Control of the U.S. House and Senate are on the line, and this could be one of the most brutal midterms since 1994’s “Contract with America.” Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“By the Numbers” – In the Senate, the math remains easy. There is a 50-50 deadlock, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote. A gain of just one vote in either party, makes that conundrum moot (for the most part, with Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska, still able to muck it up occasionally). But it won’t be the constant Manchin drama of this year. In the House, Republicans need a net-gain of just five seats to retake the majority and unseat Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

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“My 2022 Predictions” – Republicans are in the unfortunate position of defending 20 Senate seats, while Democrats are only defending 14. Historically, the party out of power in the White House gains seats in the first midterm election. In 1994, for example, the GOP used that to huge advantage to win both the House and the Senate for the first time in 40 years. I don’t see that happening in 2022, unless the inflation situation worsens over the next six to eight months. I predict a one or two seat Senate gain for Democrats, giving them firm control of that chamber. But I predict a ten to fifteen seat GOP gain in the House, making Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R) California, the next Speaker of the House.

 

“So, What Does Divided Government Look Like?” – So, I have predicted Republicans will retake the House, but not the Senate. You might think, that’s a big “D” advantage, but hear me out. According to the Constitution, all revenue and tax bills must start in the House. If the GOP is in charge, I can’t imagine tax increases being passed by the House Ways and Means Committee, let alone on the entire floor. Without that, Democrats who may control the Senate are handcuffed. In a rare instance, the House beats the Senate, as “the tail sometimes wags the dog.”

 

“Build Back Bounce” – As I mentioned last week, I don’t think the fight over the so-called Build Back Better bill is over, after Senator Joe Manchin’s promised “no” vote. I predict Senate Democrats will whittle the bill down to an even $1.5 trillion dollar price tag, while including things that will help West Virginia including childcare, monthly extension of the Child Tax Credits, and help with lung disease and economic revitalization in coal communities. Manchin can get ALL he asks for, in exchange for an ultimate yes vote on a lower-priced package. His vote will seal the deal!

 

“Manchin’s Mansion” -- Folks, every week I get calls from reporter friends (and strangers) from all over the country and even overseas, (i.e., The Guardian from the U.K.). I was even texting with my old San Francisco reporter colleague and friend, Cecilia Vega, now Weekend Anchor for ABC World News Tonight. Here’s the deal.  Manchin is for real. He’s not some political phony. He is very protective of the fossil fuel industry in his state (so a natural gas tax increase was a non-starter). He’s concerned about all the additions to the national debt, estimated at 8 to 9 trillion since COVID began, if not more. Manchin said if he won in 2018, this would be his last term, but will he hold to that? I predict he’ll come home and run for governor again in 2024 or change his mind on term limits and run for Senate again in 2024. Either way, he’s not done!

 

“In Memoriam – U.S. Senator Harry Reid” – I worked as a Congressional Aide and then as a reporter on Capitol Hill from 1992 to 1999, before Senator Reid (D) Nevada, came to power, but he was already a force. Reid was a boxer from Searchlight, Nevada, a skill that served him well over the years. He reminded me of frequent Republican presidential candidate Pat Buchanan (also a boxer), a skill that brought the mental and physical toughness needed in politics. Reid was Lt. Governor of Nevada, before serving four years in the U.S. House, before 30 years in the U.S. Senate. Perhaps his greatest legislative accomplishment (whether you like it or not), was the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare in 2010. Without Reid, it likely would have failed.

 

“In Memoriam—Coach John Madden” – Wait a minute? Why are you talking about a sports figure in a political column? The answer is because he was the antithesis of politics. I only met Coach Madden once, but knew his sons Joe and Mike, and in fact, his grandson was one of my wife’s dance students. I liked the Madden family because it had a tough, blue-collar work ethic, despite the fame. Without giving too many details, I am a diabetic, and they and I intersected in that world of fundraising and education. Coach and his family were very supportive of the cause, for which I will be eternally grateful. They cared about helping folks, not about the politics. Coach was also a huge fan of my beloved home-state Green Bay Packers, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and all that involves. RIP John Madden. Thanks for making football fun for millions!

 

What are your thoughts as we head into Campaign 2022? Just click the comment button and let us know!

 

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.