Putin on the Fritz – “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- February 27, 2022

Putin on the Fritz – “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- February 27, 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine this week will have major international consequences, but it will also have potential consequences to our economy, and perhaps elections, here at home. Suddenly it becomes a big political football in the 2022 election cycle. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

 

“Déjà vu All Over Again” – The famed Yogi Berra line is appropriate to this conversation. In 1979, the United States was dealing with the double-digit inflation of economic misery. Then there was an international crisis and Iranian militants stormed the U.S. embassy in Teheran. By 1980, the economic mess and the international chaos sealed a one-term deal for President Jimmy Carter. Fast forward 42 years, and we are now seeing 7.5 percent inflation and rising, and another international crisis facing the White House incumbent. Will the “double-whammy” keep the Biden White House to one term? Stay tuned!

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“Manchin Weighs In” – He is the most powerful Senator in the United States but, doesn’t have his usual swing-vote leverage on this issue, at least so far. As Commander-in-Chief, a president has a lot more leeway on international issues and only needs the advice and consent of the Senate to take certain actions, but not the House. Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia said, “Protecting the rights and stability of self-determining nations around the world is a long-held American priority and cannot be forgotten. In direct response to the invasion of a sovereign state, the United States and our allies around the globe must take immediate actions and impose crippling sanctions to address Russia’s anti-democratic aggressive actions.” So far, there is no mention (or apparent stomach), for U.S. military action.

 

“Energy Independence” – There are predictions that oil and natural gas prices will rise sharply in Europe, and perhaps to a lesser degree in the U.S., now that that Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany has been blocked.  Crude oil was briefly more than $100 a barrel, the highest in years. But U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R) West Virginia says the Biden Administration could have avoided shortages and price increases by not shutting down U.S. initiatives such as the Keystone Pipeline from Canada into the U.S. “You know we need to open up our own domestic resources, more. We know this administration is clamping down on pipelines and drilling on federal lands. You know we could be energy independent, and we should be. And so, this shouldn’t have any impact on us. We should be able to sustain ourselves, because of the proliferation of oil and natural gas we have in this country. That’s what we need to do,” Capito said.

 

“Market Reaction” – The biggest immediate concern in the U.S. was how financial markets would react. To use a wartime analogy, maybe it was “shock and awe.” On Thursday, following the initial invasion, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 2 percent, but later rebounded and finished the day up 92 points. The NASDAQ was jittery at first but finished up 436 points for a 3.34 percent increase. Crude oil hit $105 per barrel for the first time since 2014 but ended the day under $100 a barrel. So far, there were initial jitters only to have the markets rebound with the announcement of sanctions. But it’s a day-by-day performance we need to watch. It’s the old bromide of “past performance is not an indicator of future results.” A long, drawn-out war could take away this week’s market rebound. Eyes wide open!

 

“Public Polling” – There is very little stomach among the American people for the U.S. interceding in this war, especially any incursion of U.S. troops. According to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, just 26% say the U.S. should have a major role in the conflict; 52 percent say a minor role; and 20% say no role at all.

 

“Trump’s Praise of Putin” – As a potential presidential comeback contender in 2024, many people were wondering what former President Donald Trump had to say about the Russian Ukraine invasion. At a fundraiser at his Florida Mar-a-Lago estate Wednesday, Trump said, "This all happened because of a rigged election." He continued his praise of Putin, calling him "pretty smart" in "taking over a country for $2 worth of sanctions." Quotes can have consequences as this all plays out.

 

“The Death of Chicken Kiev” – Okay, I know this is a very serious international issue and people are dying. But can we have a little room for levity to relieve the stress? For years, the Ukraine capital of Kiev, was pronounced “KEY-ev.” But now the recommended pronunciation has changed to “KEEVE.” I don’t truly know which is correct, but it’s unsettling from my hobby as an amateur chef. I’ve occasionally made a dish known as “Chicken KEY-ev”, which sounds a lot classier than “Chicken KEEVE” (which rhymes with sleeve). The spelling has also changed from Kiev to Kyiv. I’m so confused and am wondering if anyone can explain. I know, minor first world problems! Bon Appetit!

 

“Supreme Court Pick” – As promised, President Biden nominated a Black woman to the U.S. Supreme Court Friday. She is Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson from the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, where so many justices come from. Barring any surprises, I bet she is confirmed.

 

What should the U.S. do about the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Add a comment below.

 

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.