States and Cities Must Counter Expected Trump Retreat on Climate - Horowitz

States and Cities Must Counter Expected Trump Retreat on Climate - Horowitz

From one vantage point, President Biden’s submission last week of a 2035 national goal for the new round of target setting under the Paris climate agreement of reducing net carbon emissions by at least 61% below 2005 levels could be viewed as a futile gesture.  After all, his administration has one foot out the door and it is highly likely that his successor, Donald Trump will withdraw from the global climate agreement once again, returning to the short-sighted, heat-up-the-planet anyway we possibly can policy agenda that characterized his first term.

 

In President-elect Trump’s first term, however, states, cities, and businesses stepped into the void, at least limiting our retreat on the climate. These efforts, combined with an admittedly big boost from severely curbed demand for energy during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulted in a net greenhouse gases emissions reduction over the 4 years.

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 Going forward, states, cities, businesses, and the rest of us will need to do even more to continue the progress underway on combating climate change in the face of President Trump’s commitment to reversing course.  These state and local efforts have become substantially more robust over the past 4 years, fueled in large measure by incentives and funding provided by the Biden Administration to accelerate the transition from carbon-producing fossil fuels to renewable energy.  A large boost has also come from the continuing reduction in the costs of renewable energy as economies of scale are being reached. Today, more than 40% of electricity in the United States is generated from non-carbon producing sources.

 

In fact, if state and local governments step-up, a University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability analysis that factors in Trump’s victory, finds that the 2035 national greenhouse gas emissions goal declared by President Biden is achievable. “It concluded that the United States could achieve 54 to 62 percent greenhouse gas emissions reductions by 2035 across a range of scenarios for federal action—as long as state and local governments greatly increase climate action,” reported Inside Climate News.

 

This could occur, according to the analysis, only if at least some of the Biden policies and programs were retained.  The good news, though, is that given how closely divided Congress will be and how much of the funding the Biden administration provided in this area is already spent or legally committed, the likelihood is that Trump will have only limited success in his rollback efforts.

 

To send a strong message to the rest of the world, that no matter what President Trump says, the United States is not abandoning its commitment to limiting the increase in global temperatures, it is essential for organizations like America is All In and the US Climate Alliance to re-double their public communications activities.  This worked well during the first Trump administration.  When Donald Trump withdrew from the global climate agreement in 2017, for instance, America is All In enlisted more than 4,000 mayors, governors, university presidents and business leaders in signing the “We Are Still In” declaration, committing to meet our declared Paris emissions reductions targets and heavily publicized this commitment.

 

It is in this spirit that Gina McCarthy, the Co-Managing Chair of America is All In who formerly headed the EPA, told AP, “No matter what Trump may say, the shift to clean energy is unstoppable, and our country is not turning back.”

 

 Similarly, US Climate Alliance co-chair, Governor of New Mexico Michelle Lujan Grisham, declared the organization’s support for President Biden’s ambitious 2035 climate goal. "The only thing clearer than the science and impacts of climate change is the benefit of taking action – and we’re not slowing down,” the New Mexico governor exclaimed. “By continuing to stamp out climate pollution together, we’re safeguarding public health, protecting the environment, growing the economy, and creating good jobs across the U.S.”   Representing 24 states and territories that comprise 54% of the U.S. population and 57% of the U.S. economy, the governors who are members of the US Climate Alliance have collectively committed to zero net carbon emissions by 2050.

 

The election of Donald Trump is certainly a setback for efforts to limit global temperature increases and, unfortunately, comes at a pivotal time for the climate.  We are all too rapidly approaching the 1.5% Celsius or 2.7% Fahrenheit increase above pre-industrial levels that scientists tell us begin to risk the worse consequences of global warming. The building blocks, however, are in place for the robust state and local efforts that can limit the damage, keep us progressing to our climate goals, and send the right message for the rest of the world to do the same.  Governors, mayors, and business leaders, we are counting on you once again to fill the vacuum.