Despite Win Over Creighton, PC Still Has a Complicated Path to Big Dance - McMahon
Robert McMahon, Sports Columnist
Despite Win Over Creighton, PC Still Has a Complicated Path to Big Dance - McMahon
Is the Creighton win enough, though, for PC to slide into the NCAA tournament? An unexpected road victory against the Butler Bulldogs almost happened which would have really given PC a likely chance to punch their ticket to the dance.
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So many “ifs” with the loss to Butler. If Oduro had been able to suit up for this game? If the Friars had been able to keep it closer in the first half? If the Friars had figured out how to score one more basket when they went up 71-64? If the Friars hadn’t missed 6 free throws? If the refs had called a Butler foul on Corey Floyd’s last-second drive to the basket instead of ruling it a clean block? An expected road loss to Butler ended up being a game PC could have won.
As great a job as Coach English has done with the Friars this year, the loss to Butler really exposed a team-building issue for the first-year Friars coach. This team has very little depth at the big man position and that has been a huge issue since Bryce Hopkins went down for the season. And the depth at the big man role was really magnified in the game against Butler when Odura was unable to play because of the birth of his first child. You can’t develop new players like Castro in the thick of the Big East season. Castro has raw talent but needed minutes and game experience before Big East play. He didn’t get nearly enough playing time when PC was blowing out teams like Wagner, Brown, Lehigh, and URI. He got 15 minutes in the Wagner game, but only averaged 8 minutes in the Brown, URI, and Lehigh games.
It is likely that only 6 Big East teams are likely to be chosen for the NCAA’s. Some years it has been 7 teams, but that is highly unlikely this year, in part, because of the number of strong teams in the Big 12 conference. PC, in fact, lost to two Big 12 teams early in the season, Oklahoma and Kansas State.
If only 6 Big East teams get selected, PC may be in trouble. UConn, Marquette, and Creighton are locks for the NCAA. There are 6 Big East teams vying for the other 3 Big East spots in the NCAA: Providence, Butler, Seton Hall, Xavier, Villanova, and St. John’s.
There are a lot of moving parts in the Big East that all affect PC chances now of getting into the Big Dance. First, here are the remaining Big East games the Friars have to win. At home: St. John’s (this Tuesday night), DePaul, and Villanova. On the road: Georgetown. This would give them a 10-10 Big East record and a 19-12 regular season record, including wins against rated teams at the time of the wins, Marquette and Creighton. The early season PC win against Wisconsin, who has been a nationally ranked team most of the season, looked good most of the season. But now, the Badgers are really tanking, so that win is beginning to look less important on the PC resume.
I’m not sure a 10-10 Big East record and an overall regular season 19-12 record will be good enough to get PC into one of the last 3 Big East slots to be selected for the NCAA tournament. The loss to Villanova was a crusher, and the recent loss to Butler could haunt PC come selection Sunday.
There is, of course, the Big East tournament that will give the Friars at least one or more opportunities to put more Big East wins on their resume.
The Friars need to win the remaining games in the regular season mentioned above. To really firm up their NCAA chances, and not rely on the Big East tournament, I’m convinced the Friars also have to win either the road game at Xavier or the final home game against UConn. A win over #1 UConn will certainly give the Friars a spot in the NCAA. And frankly, given PC’s play against the Huskies in Storrs in their first match-up, I think the Friars have a good shot at an upset at the AMP against Dan Hurley’s team. But, first things first, got to beat the Johnnies and old friend Rick Pitino.