How Protected Is RI Against the COVID Omicron Variant? About 32% of Population, Not 73%
Nick Landekic, Guest MINDSETTER™
How Protected Is RI Against the COVID Omicron Variant? About 32% of Population, Not 73%
A great deal of hope is being placed on protection with vaccination. The two key issues regarding vaccines are, declining effectiveness over time and the need for booster shots, and the degree to which Omicron may be resistant to vaccines.
It has been shown in many studies and widely reported that vaccine effectiveness declines over time and therefore booster shots are crucial to maintain protection.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTA recent study in Sweden found the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to decline from 92% initially to 47% by 6 months, and no detectable protection after 7 months. Protection of the Moderna vaccine declined to 59% by 6 months.
How many Rhode Islanders are protected by vaccination?
The Rhode Island Department of Health represents that 73% of Rhode Islanders are fully vaccinated, and 82.4% are partially vaccinated. Given the well-documented waning effectiveness of the vaccines over time and need for booster shots, and the impending arrival of the Omicron variant, a more important question would be, how many Rhode Islanders are as protected as they can be?
Since multiple studies have shown that a booster shot is needed after six months and the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control have approved boosters after six months, it is reasonable to assume that those who have either received their initial vaccination or a booster shot within the past six months are the ones most protected. If more than six months have passed since the initial vaccination and a person has not received a booster shot, the data show they are not fully protected.
To date, 164,831 vaccine booster doses have been administered in Rhode Island. Furthermore, since June 1, 2021, 174,538 people have received both of their initial vaccine shots. Thus, it seems that only 339,369 Rhode Islanders are actually benefiting from full vaccine protection – about 32% of the population, not 73%.
Looked at another way, 561,816 Rhode Islanders were fully vaccinated by June 1, 2021, and are now eligible for booster shots. Of those, 164,831 have received booster doses – leaving 396,985 Rhode Islanders eligible for booster shots who have not yet received them, and thus do not have the best protection against the Omicron variant. And there are tens of thousands who have yet to receive any vaccination.
Will the current vaccines work against the Omicron variant?
It’s not yet known how well the current vaccines will work against the Omicron variant. The first information will come from laboratory tests measuring how well the antibodies generated by vaccines neutralize Omicron, with results expected within a couple of weeks. Actual clinical data assessing breakthrough infections in people will take longer.
However, there are signs that the effectiveness of current vaccines may be reduced against Omicron.
Vaccine effectiveness against COVID is rarely an absolute yes or no, but a degree of protection based on how high of an antibody level is required to neutralize the virus. The Delta variant is somewhat less susceptible to antibodies and requires a higher amount to neutralize it, resulting in slightly reduced but still high vaccine effectiveness.
Vaccine antibodies bind to a part of the virus called the ‘spike protein’. Mutations in the spike protein change its shape and make it more difficult for antibodies to bind and neutralize the virus. A critical part of the spike protein is the ‘Receptor Binding Domain’. The Delta variant had two mutations in this region – the Omicron variant has 15. Omicron has a total of 32 mutations in the spike protein, and over 50 mutations overall, more than has ever been seen before with any COVID variant. The large number of mutations in the spike protein makes it likely that vaccine antibodies will have a more difficult time binding to the area and neutralizing the virus, meaning that protection might be less or last for a shorter period of time than against Delta.
This makes it even more important for everyone who is eligible to get a booster shot as soon as possible to maximize their vaccine effectiveness and be as protected as they can be against the Omicron variant.
“There are a lot of unknowns right now. Keep in mind we have been preparing for something like that for months. I think the results could be - which we don’t know yet - that the vaccines protect less," said Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla.
"It is highly possible that the efficacy of the vaccines - all of them - is going down," said Stephane Bancel, CEO of Moderna.
The good news is that doctors in South Africa report that the Omicron is mostly "mild" symptoms.
On Monday, the CDC strengthened their recommendations and said that all adults should get a COVID vaccine booster shot 6 months after the initial Pfizer or Moderna vaccination and 2 months after a Johnson & Johnson vaccination.
“Everyone ages 18 and older should get a booster shot either when they are 6 months after their initial Pfizer or Moderna series or 2 months after their initial J&J vaccine. The recent emergence of the Omicron variant further emphasizes the importance of vaccination, boosters, and prevention efforts needed to protect against COVID-19," said CDC Director Rochelle Walensky.
Some countries are revising their definition of a ‘fully vaccinated’ person to now also require a booster shot after 6 months, including the U.K. and Greece. The Governor of New Mexico believes full vaccination means getting a booster shot when eligible. It may become a broader requirement elsewhere.
As of late Monday afternoon, Omicron has been confirmed in 17 countries around the world, with 200+ more probable. Public health experts believe the variant is already in the U.S. but not yet detected.
“We have not detected it yet, but when you have a virus that is showing this degree of transmissibility and you’re already having travel-related cases that they’ve noted in Israel and Belgium and other places, when you have a virus like this, it almost invariably is ultimately going to go essentially all over,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, senior COVID advisor to President Biden.
New York State has declared a state of emergency as a result of the Omicron variant threat, and today issued a new mask advisory strongly recommending everyone, regardless of vaccination status, wear masks in all public indoor settings ahead of an expected increase in COVID cases because of Omicron.
In addition to getting booster shots, wearing masks indoors would seem to be a very good idea right now for everyone, not just in New York but also in Rhode Island.