Truth or Consequences of the Variants for Rhode Island - Landekic

Truth or Consequences of the Variants for Rhode Island - Landekic

The continued rise of coronavirus variants is creating an increasingly dangerous situation in Rhode Island. If we are not careful and take safety measures now, we have only to look to the health disaster happening across Europe for a forecast of what could be in store for us.

There are several important developments happening:

 

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1. Coronavirus variants have become dominant in Rhode Island.

Variants have become dominant both in Rhode Island and the U.S. overall. Last week Dr. Philip Chan of the RIDOH commented that about 40% of COVID cases in Rhode Island were due to variants.

A top-line review of Rhode Island’s variant tracking data infers that 66% of COVID cases are now due to variants (93 variant cases out of the last 141 genomic sequences completed). The most common variant in Rhode Island is B.1.1.7, typically called the “U.K. variant” although it most likely independently emerged in the U.S.

 

2. The variants are more dangerous.

The B.1.1.7 “U.K.” variant is both more contagious and more lethal. A recent study this week showed that the B.1.1.7 variant is 60% more contagious.

This is literally a deadly combination that makes this time of pandemic different and more hazardous than before, especially when combined with the high level of infection in Rhode Island.

B.1.1.7 has been shown to increase very fast and quickly become the dominant strain. Studies have shown that it can double in just 7 days. In European countries, B.1.1.7 now accounts for 75%-100% of infections, and is causing a great deal of suffering to many people. We can expect it to increase even further in Rhode Island. By next month, it may be the cause of most infections here.

There are other variants of concern found in Rhode Island as well, including B.1.351 (“South African”), to which vaccines have shown decreased effectiveness, and P.1 (“Brazilian”) which is both more contagious and against which vaccines appear less effective. The B.1.525 and B.1.526 (“New York”) variants also being found here all contain the same mutation called E484K that can make the virus less susceptible to vaccines and antibodies.

Because of how differently these variants sicken people and resist vaccines, Dr. Sebastian Funk, professor of infectious disease dynamics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine recently said, “The best way to think about B.1.1.7 and other variants is to treat them as separate epidemics.”

 

3. Rhode Island continues to have a dangerously high level of infection.

The level of infection in Rhode Island continues to be critically high. For the past 7 weeks RI has been stuck at an infection rate of about 33-37/100,000 per day https://covidactnow.org/us/rhode_island-ri/?s=1744665. This is about the same as was briefly experienced at the peak of the first surge last spring. Last year this level of infection resulted in lockdowns and other safety measures. Now the same rate of illness brings reopenings of bars, indoor dining in restaurants, and further pull back of safety measures and celebrations of the pandemic ‘being over’.

As much as we desperately want this to be the case, it just isn’t. 

Our elected leaders seem to be OK with Rhode Island having a critically high level of infection as an acceptable ‘new normal’. It’s not. 300-600 new infections daily is unacceptably and irresponsibly high and continues to be the fourth-worst in the country.

Continuing this level of infection could result in 150,000-200,000 cases and 2,000-4,000 deaths per year, as well as create the perfect breeding ground for new mutations that could render our hard-earned vaccinations ineffective. Surges of new variants in the future combined with the elimination of health safety measures could once again propel Rhode Island into the dubious distinction of being the most highly infected place on Earth, as it was last December.

 

4. Young people in Rhode Island are the ones now getting infected.

COVID infections continue to increase among younger people. At this same time last year, only 3% of cases were in those under 18, and 14% in those under 24. In the past week 24% of COVID cases were in youths under age 18, and an additional 16% in those between 19 and 24. A staggering 40% of all cases in Rhode Island – approaching half - are now in people under age 24.

The proportion of infections afflicting young people is rising, and is up from even just last week. These are not the conditions under which it is prudent to remove safety measures and talk about resuming graduations and proms, unless one wants to risk creating multiple super-spreader events and further sickening young people.

Remember it’s not just getting through the acute infection. Having COVID could follow you for the rest of your life. 76% of people still have health problems six months after their infection, and 85% of survivors have been found to have long-term neurological problems such as cognitive impairment and brain damage.

Rhode Island is now doing a much better job with vaccinations, ranking 2nd in the country for fully vaccinated and 9th for first shot . But the persistently high infection levels and rise of variants are painfully showing us that vaccines alone cannot do it all. As Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University said, “If you’re looking for a magic wand, you won’t find one in vaccines”.

Just because other people or states are doing something doesn’t mean it’s a smart or safe thing to do. Even former Governor Gina Raimondo, whose calamitous pandemic policies resulted in Rhode Island becoming the most infected place on the planet, this week at a White House press conference said, “Just don’t jump the gun… I just have lived it, and every time you jump the gun, you live to regret it.” 

The hardest thing for all of us to accept is that life will never go back to the ‘way things were’ before the pandemic. The virus is here to stay. Life going forward means having to accept this unpleasant fact and adapt to the new reality and figure out how to safely live in a world with the coronavirus in it. Because if we don’t, the virus is going to win.

This will require a level of competence, wisdom, and leadership our elected officials have not yet shown. Otherwise, the path we are on risks turning Rhode Island into a no-mans land, a permanent disaster zone of infection. Who would want to live in a place where any visit to a bar, indoor restaurant dining, or being in enclosed spaces with other people runs a risk of getting infected?

At the next election, think about if you would rather vote for someone whose highest priority is your health and life, or other people’s money.

These are the hard, unpleasant realities before us. We must find prudent, sensible ways forward, or we will all, together and individually, face the consequences.

Nick Landekic a retired scientist and biotechnology executive with over 35 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry.