New Coronavirus Mutation Is Both More Deadly and More Contagious - Nick Landekic

New Coronavirus Mutation Is Both More Deadly and More Contagious - Nick Landekic

A number of new mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus have been emerging around the world, including here in the U.S. Many of them are more contagious and easily spread than earlier forms of the virus. A new study has found that at least one of them is also more deadly, with a 35% higher death rate.

One of the variants, B.1.1.7, was first identified in the United Kingdom. It is about 50% more transmissible than earlier versions of the virus. A study just published by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has now shown that in addition to being more easily spread, the B.1.1.7 mutation is also more lethal, causing up to 35% more deaths. The combination of being more easily spread and higher mortality is very dangerous, and a worst case scenario.

The B.1.1.7 variant has become the dominant strain in the U.K. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-risk-related-to-spread-of-new-SARS-CoV-2-variants-EU-EEA-first-update.pdf. This led to a dramatic rise in deaths there, increasing more than 400% since November 1.

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The B.1.1.7 variant has been confirmed in 33 states in the U.S., including Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York. It seems likely that it is also already in Rhode Island (but not yet confirmed here because of the specialized testing procedures needed to identify it). It is predicted to become the dominant strain in the U.S. by next month.

Infection rates have declined across the country in recent weeks, including in Rhode Island. This is certainly welcome news, but it is much too early to declare victory. The infection rate in Rhode Island is still at a critical level. The recent declines have only brought the infection rate back down to where it was in November. Our current infection rate of 47.7/100,000 is still higher than the worst we experienced of 36.9/100,000 during the spring crisis. We still have presently the 9th highest infection rate in the country, and more worryingly, the 4th highest death rate. The level of infection in Rhode Island is still high, much higher than the rate of 2/100,000 some experts such as Dr. Michael Fine believe is necessary before reopening can safely be considered.

At least one of the coronavirus variants is now shown to be more lethal plus more easily spread. That’s literally a deadly combination. Given the rise of mutations such as B.1.1.7, we may be in the calm before the storm. Rhode Island’s recent relaxation of safety measures in restaurants, gyms, offices, and recreational facilities could be leaving the door wide open for the mutations to tear through us with devastating consequences, and risk a disastrous repeat of what happened in the U.K.

Reopening too soon in Rhode Island came back to bite us before, and resulted in the horrific increase in infections we experienced last fall. The result was that for a time in December, Rhode Island was literally the most highly infected place in the entire world.

It seems like we may be repeating the same mistakes. If we’re not careful, we might pay for this impatience with our lives. 

Nick Landekic a retired scientist and biotechnology executive with over 35 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry.