COVID-19 in Rhode Island Is Worse Than You Think - Nick Landekic
Nick Landekic, Guest MINDSETTER™
COVID-19 in Rhode Island Is Worse Than You Think - Nick Landekic
Officially there have been 117,891 positive SARS-CoV-2 cases in Rhode Island to date, about 11% of the population, around 1 out of every 9 people. It’s been widely believed that the actual number of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus is higher than the official test numbers show.
A new study suggests that reality is even worse than previously thought. Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, professor and infectious disease specialist at Columbia University, along with others at and affiliated with Columbia, recently evaluated many forecast models of COVID-19 and created a new model to try and create a more accurate picture of how many people are really infected. The result is an estimate that on any given day, about 10 times more people are actually infected than is shown by official tests.
Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University points out that what is crucial to ascertaining our own risk is how many people are infected and spreading virus on any day. “When I'm out and about, how many people around me are infectious? How many people around me are potentially spreading the virus?”
For Rhode Island, this suggests that the 450 positive tests results on Friday means there were actually more like 4,500 people shedding virus and capable of spreading disease.
This new analysis suggests that on January 5, there were more than 16,000 infected people in Rhode Island capable of spreading disease.
The new model also estimates how many people in each state have already been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. For Rhode Island, the answer is a staggering 41% - more than 2 out of every 5 people - the 15th highest of all states in the U.S.
Having had COVID-19 before is not a guarantee of immunity. If you are part of the 41%, you are probably not protected. New mutations bring a risk of reinfection for those that have been previously infected. As Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said, “If it becomes dominant, the experience of our colleagues in South Africa indicate that even if you’ve been infected with the original virus that there is a very high rate of reinfection to the point where previous infection does not seem to protect you against reinfection.”
This new work also underscores the vital importance of not reopening too soon, as it leaves the doors open for the virus to spread. As Dr. Shaman observed, "If we let up now, given how much infection is out there, we're going to make it so that many, many more people are going to get the virus before they ever have the chance to get the vaccine."
