Four (or Five) Issues Shape Presidential Polls – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - April 14, 2024

Four (or Five) Issues Shape Presidential Polls – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - April 14, 2024

 

For the moment, coverage of the presidential race is being dominated by abortion, and former President Donald Trump’s legal problems. That will change because the public is interested in far more than those two key issues. Then, there is the new threat of military conflict overseas. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

 

“Abortion: Having it Both Ways?” – President Trump’s biggest legacy is appointing three U.S. Supreme Court justices who led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a 49-year-old decision that legalized abortion in the entire United States. Now, some groups would like to see that decision codified into law by Congress, with an outright nationwide abortion ban. On the other hand, many want the decision left up to each state, which was the original GOP argument. Trump is being pinched by both sides. He even said he would not sign a national abortion ban into law.

 

“The Push and Shove” - Trump said in a video released by his campaign, “My view is now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation or both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land. In this case, the law of the state.” The problem for him is that some states have bans ranging from 6 weeks to 15 weeks, and so there is no consistent policy. Trump has also supported exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother. Ardent pro-life groups are upset he appears to be straddling the fence. Former Vice President Mike Pence called Trump’s statement, “A slap in the face to the millions of pro-life Americans who voted for him in 2016 and 2020.”

 

“The Arizona Problem” – In 2022 the Arizona Legislature approved, and Gov. Doug Ducey signed a 15-week abortion ban, with no rape or incest exceptions. But this past week, the Arizona State Supreme Court overturned that by reinstating a state abortion ban from 1864, that only has an exception for saving the life of the mother. President Trump criticized the ruling and said what the state legislature and governor decided should stand based on state’s rights. Now reproductive rights supporters are gathering signatures to put a voter initiative on the ballot to let the public decide. Democrats very much want that, because of its success elsewhere. Joe Biden carried Arizona in 2020, but right now Trump has a 5-point lead in the latest Wall Street Journal poll. Arizona is the swing state that could decide who moves into the White House, and abortion could be the linchpin issue.

 

“Trump Troubles Trifecta” – The legal battles involving the former president are soon going to require a scorecard. Three federal courts of appeal have now rejected Trump’s attempt to delay the start of this Monday’s criminal trial in New York City, which says Trump paid “hush money” to adult porn actress Stormey Daniels, via then-Trump fixer and attorney Michale Cohen. Trump wants the case moved out of Manhattan, but the judge said no. Trump wants the trial moved to Florida, where he now lives and where a “jury of his peers” is, in theory, a lot more right-leaning. Trump is still awaiting word from the U.S. Supreme Court on whether his actions as president are covered by “immunity” since they fell under his official duties. More rulings to come.

 

“It’s the Economy, Stupid!” – The campaign mantra of 1992 Bill Clinton advisor James Carville again comes to the fore. The consumer price index came in at a 3.5 percent annual increase for the month of March. That means prices are still up sharply. Most notably the price of gas per gallon has really shot up in the past month. At the same time, some analysts are saying the unexpected sharp inflation rate may cancel a planned decrease in lender interest rates in June. In short, all this means is people have less to spend, and less to invest. When politicians say, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” the answer for many at the ballot box in November is, “No!” This could be a big GOP advantage, but economic numbers still have time to change.

 

“Latest Immigration Numbers” – Despite what I’ve just said about the economy and Trump’s legal woes, I predict illegal immigration will still play a critical, possibly pivotal role in this campaign. The numbers for the end of the fiscal year in 2023 are staggering. Nearly 270,000 people tried to, or successfully entered the United States illegally at the U.S. Southern Border with Mexico. These are the highest numbers ever recorded, according to the House Committee on Homeland Security.

 

“The Importance of Imagery” – The crush of migrants at the Southern Border, provides searing images on the nightly news, especially the heart-tugging pictures of little children trying to cross with their parents. The photos are emotional and heartbreaking. But what are the images of inflation? Is it someone holding a gas pump with $3.49 on the screen? And what about Trump’s legal troubles? All we usually get is the ex-president’s scowl at the cameras. So, which of these images resonate with average voters? Folks, the polls tell us it’s immigration. The sheer number of images of grandparents, parents and kids trying to safely cross is gut-wrenching. By comparison, pictures of gas pumps and Trump in court seem trivial. I predict immigration will decide the November elections, for both the White House and control of Congress.

 

“Impeaching Homeland Security” – The issue of illegal immigration could come front and center this week if the Senate begins an impeachment trial against Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas. The charges allege dereliction of duty in terms of preventing illegal crossings at the Southern U.S. Border. Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R) West Virginia is very much for the impeachment inquiry, saying, “First and foremost, the Biden-Mayorkas DHS has failed to uphold the law and secure our borders.” Capito, with others, still wants a border wall. Critics say the issue is tinged with racism. Vanessa Cardenas of America’s Voice said, “The right-wing impeachment of Secretary Mayorkas was pre-baked from the start and has always been about political attacks instead of public policy.”

 

“The Wild Card Issue” – By week’s end, Iran was shooting missiles at Israel, which in turn was mobilizing its “Iron Dome” missile defense system. If a more widespread war breaks out in the Mideast, how the U.S. responds will rocket to the top of the presidential race issue agenda.