Riley: Time to Worry About Stocks

Michael G. Riley, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

Riley: Time to Worry About Stocks

Stock junkies like me are always on the lookout for bubbles or any sign of over-speculation. In college I studied the crash of 1929 and the events surrounding the top of markets like Ivar Krueger (the Match King) and broker call rates of 20% caused by margin speculation on Wall Street.

We even look for today’s version of Joe Kennedy’s "shoe shine boy" - Kennedy claimed he understood the rampant stock speculation of the late 1920s would lead to a market crash. Supposedly, he said that he knew it was time to get out of the market when he received stock tips from a shoe-shine boy. Kennedy survived the crash "because he possessed a passion for facts, a complete lack of sentiment and a marvelous sense of timing."

The 2000 - 2001 dot com bubble was huge and there were plenty of stories of extreme speculation culminating and bursting with Enron's accounting fraud and bankruptcy. You would have to have been dead from the neck up or be on the Federal Reserve board, not to notice rampant stock Speculation and that resulted in 90%+ crashes. 

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1987 - 2007

I was up here in Rhode Island to witness the real estate bubble of 2006-2007, when it seemed that everyone in Rhode Island was a real estate broker, appraiser or mortgage broker. The low level of sophistication and knowledge of speculators across the state was frightening. Some of us read those signs and figured out who would be the losers and shorted those stocks. So obvious. 

The top in 1987 wasn’t that hard either, I remember Dan Akroyd and the Blues Brothers band in July 1987 throwing Hard Rock Café money over the balcony of the Stock Exchange into a six-foot-high mountain of cold Shrimp Cocktail to celebrate Hard Rocks listing on the exchange.

The #1 billboard song “The future is so bright I gotta wear shades” spent months on the charts in 1986 and early 1987. With interest rates at only 6.5% investors were told there is nowhere else to put your cash. Then the Dow dropped from 2700 in September 1987 to 1700 in October, ending with a sickening one day decline of 22.61% on October 19,1987. I was there and my partners and I thought we were out of business. 

My Sense: We Are Near Another Top

There does not seem to be the level of euphoria that surrounded the dot com bubble or even the 1929 top. But there are definitely unusual things going on so my radar is up.

Like 1972, very few stocks are producing the bulk of Market returns. In 1972 it was Polaroid, Eastman Kodak, and Avon among others. Now in 2017 its Amazon, Facebook, Netflix and Google otherwise known as “FANG”.

It's not usually a good sign when certain stocks develop a theme or following. We all remember when the “BRIC’s” fell like a ton of bricks and the nifty 50 collapsed. I can clearly see a couple of speculative bubbles out there and one potential calamitous AIG like meltdown. First, Canadian house prices are out of control, a tax has even been place on foreign buyers to slow down speculation. 

Similar to real estate speculation in Japan in the late 1980s it will not end well. The Japan stock market is still down 40% since the peak in 1989. Can you imagine that happening in Canada or the U.S.? A 40 year bear market?

Keep an eye on any type of collapse in real estate there as a sign to get out of stocks here. There is hyper speculation in penny stocks connected with marijuana or Bitcoin. Just Google it. 

Black Swan

Something ominous is taking place in China and it concerns an insurance company with spectacular growth suddenly spending big money to buy land marks like the Waldorf Astoria. Familiarize yourself with this story and you can’t help but think this could be the “black Swan” that causes worldwide panic.

Michael G. Riley is vice chair at Rhode Island Center for Freedom and Prosperity and is managing member and founder of Coastal Management Group, LLC. Riley has 35 years of experience in the financial industry, having managed divisions of PaineWebber, LETCO, and TD Securities (TD Bank). He has been quoted in Barron’s, Wall Street Transcript, NY Post, and various other print media and also appeared on NBC News, Yahoo TV, and CNBC. 
 

Rhode Island’s 50 Wealthiest and Most Influential - 2015 Edition

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