Trump’s Trials are Trying – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - May 12, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Trump’s Trials are Trying – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - May 12, 2024
“His Contempt for Contempt” – Mr. Trump was again cited for violation of the judge’s gag order in the New York “hush money” trial. So, the billionaire’s fines have reached $10,000 in pocket change, and I doubt he’ll stop speaking out, even though the judge said jail could be the next stop. “It appears that the $1,000 fines are not serving as a deterrent. Therefore, going forward, this court will have to consider a jail sanction,” said Judge Juan Merchan.
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“Is Trump Playing Chicken” – Remember that old high school game, where two cars would oppose each other, then drive head-on? At the last minute, one (or both) drivers would swerve to avoid a collision. I think that’s happening here. Outside the courtroom, Trump said, “That jury was picked so fast - 95% Democrats,” Trump said at the time. "The area’s mostly all Democrat. You think of it as a, just a purely Democrat area. It’s a very unfair situation that I can tell you.” In court, Judge Merchan said, “The last thing I want to do is put you in jail.” Merchan added, “You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president as well. There are many reasons why incarceration is truly a last resort for me.”
“On the Storm Front” – The much-anticipated testimony of adult film actress Stormy Daniels began on Tuesday with Daniels describing one, very brief alleged sexual tryst with Trump in 2006. The judge halted any explicit account of the circumstances and stopped Daniels from giving details a number of times. She was allowed to say “missionary position” and that they were mostly unclothed, but if this description were a movie, it would likely be rated PG-13. For her silence, Daniels said Trump's lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid her $130,000. The real question for the jury is not sex, but whether this constituted an improper accounting of “legal expenses.” The judge did caution Trump not to bash Daniels’s testimony in his hallway interviews as that would violate the gag order.
“The Fallout” -- I think photos of Trump in a jail jumpsuit would only embolden his supporters, just as his New York mugshot photo did. In fact, an ABC News poll last week showed that 80 percent of Trump supporters would still vote for him, even if he were found guilty. In fact, outside the courtroom, Trump appeared to taunt the judge to jail him saying, “Our Constitution is much more important than jail, it's not even close. I'll do that sacrifice any day.” If nothing else, Trump is a riverboat gambler and I bet he rolls the dice.
“A Trump Court Win, For Now” – Meanwhile, in another courtroom, many miles away in Florida, Trump had a victory this week. A judge hearing a federal case about whether Trump retained White House documents illegally after leaving office, said the case would be delayed indefinitely. Judge Aileen Cannon indicated there were some national security concerns about making some documents public at trial, so the delay could be for months and may reach past the November election. Yes, Trump has lost some key civil cases, but if two or three of his criminal cases are delayed past November, he may not face an avalanche of bad news as people head out to vote. Whether it’s sheer luck or good lawyering, it potentially has the same outcome.
“The Speaker Will Speak Again” – On Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson beat back another attempt to topple him. Rep. Marjorie Tayor Greene (R) Georgia led the effort to oust Johnson, but many Democrats joined with Republicans to keep him. I think any more GOP efforts to get rid of Johnson will cause the Republicans to lose control of the lower chamber in November. Even Donald Trump agrees with me, saying on his Truth Social platform, “If we show DISUNITY, which will be portrayed as CHAOS, it will negatively affect everything! Mike Johnson is a good man who is trying very hard.” I think he’s spot on.
“In Other News: Whom Does a Cease Fire Help Most?” – This week came news that Israel and Hamas may have reached a tentative and temporary ceasefire in Gaza and elsewhere. Politically, this is potentially excellent news for President Joe Biden, who needs a win. Critics on both sides of the aisle, and especially on college campuses across the land, have been sharply critical of Biden’s approach with Israel. As I pointed out last week, the campus images could cripple him like similar ones did to President Lyndon Johnson in 1968. Obviously, the situation remains a powder keg, but for now, keeping the peace could be a big boost to the Biden campaign. On the other hand, Biden’s plan to withhold certain weapons from Israel may hurt him among Jewish voters. The dynamics of the whole issue remain in flux.
“Bobby Kennedy Jr. Has Legal Fights, Too!” – Third-party longshot Robert F. “Bobby” Kennedy Jr. has legal fights, but of a different sort. He’s trying to get on as many state ballots as possible to be viable. In Texas, Team Kennedy has hit roadblocks. On its website, the campaign says, “We have until May 13 to collect approximately 200,000 signatures to ensure Kennedy-Shanahan is on the Texas ballot.” Similar efforts are underway in at least thirty other states. There have been alleged efforts by both the Trump and Biden campaigns, to block Kennedy in Texas and elsewhere. “Trump folks want to define Kennedy as the heir to the Kennedy throne and a very liberal Democrat,” said GOP strategist Alex Conant.
“A Split House” – The two political parties share equally that they think Kennedy will hurt each major party candidate. Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX) said on X, “RFK is a WOLF in Sheep’s Clothing!! He HATES our Conservative movement and thinks people from red states are IGNORANT and VIOLENT. Don’t be FOOLED this November – TRUMP 2024!!!’” But another Trump backer believes the Kennedy name pulls more votes from Biden.
“Kennedy Brain Worm?” – It was revealed this week (perhaps leaked by opponents), that Kennedy claimed in a court filing that episodes of brain fog and memory loss in 2010 may have been, “caused by a worm that got into my brain and ate a portion of it and then died.” Kennedy said this in a 2012 deposition, which concerned a divorce from his second wife. Worried about losing support to Kennedy, I fully expect the Biden and Trump camps to seize on this.