Ric Santurri: What the Solomon Poll Really Says about the Providence Mayor's Race
Ric Santurri, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™
Ric Santurri: What the Solomon Poll Really Says about the Providence Mayor's Race
The poll, taken mostly days before last Friday's stunning announcement that fellow Democrat Brett Smiley would be withdrawing from the race and throwing his support to Jorge Elorza, has Solomon at 36%, Cianci at 35%, and Republican Dan Harrop at 6%, with 25% undecided, in a general election race. It has Cianci at 38%, Elorza, at 31%, with Harrop at 6% and 27% undecided. The Solomon campaign felt compelled to release this poll to beat back growing speculation that Solomon wasn't the best choice to block Cianci from getting back into the mayor's office.
Are those numbers going to convince undecided primary voters that Solomon is the Democrat who can hold back Cianci? One would expect that a sitting City Council president, who has solid name recognition and has been on Providence television constantly, would at this point have better than 36% support in a head to head with Cianci in this overwhelmingly Democratic city. That number should be a huge disappointment to the Solomon camp, whose campaign has been stalled by ethics disclosure complaints and a troubled city insider loan.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTGoLocalProv broke the story of Solomon's numerous violations of RI Ethics Commission disclosure law, and East Side Ward 1 Republican Council candidate Michael Long's ethics complaint charged Solomon with 25 violations of ethics disclosure law, many regarding Solomon's controversial, troubled 25 year old, half million dollar insider city loan (at the 6 minute mark of this video), and Solomon not reporting his business relationship with the city regarding this loan. After the complaint Solomon amended his reports, self-admitting to 43 violations of the ethics disclosure law for the past six years, by making 43 changes to those reports. Yesterday, Long alleged more ethics disclosure violations.
Elorza's Numbers – Plenty of Room to Grow
On the flip side, Elorza supporters should be thrilled that the little known former Providence Housing Court judge is over 30% in a match up with the former mayor. Elorza’s name recognition is still low, and his television ad presence has been non-existent as of yet. If Elorza wins the primary, he should receive a huge bump in name recognition, and can easily grow those name recognition numbers with newly found campaign contributions that should flood in if he becomes the Democratic nominee. One has to wonder about the political influence of the Providence Journal, but on Sunday Elorza picked up their glowing endorsement, adding more momentum to his upwardly trending campaign.
Taking these poll numbers as valid, the first questions become which candidate can better grow his number against Cianci. Providence voters already know Mike Solomon, from his campaign ads and stint as council president. They also know the last name, from his father's long and respected run as general treasurer. If his general election support is barely above a third of the electorate, how does he grow that number significantly? It would be a difficult task for any well known pol without all the negatives reports swirling around him, like Solomon.
Cianci Can More Easily Exploit Solomon's Negatives
What happens to Solomon's numbers after a constant barrage of negative Cianci ads? Imagine what Cianci could do to Solomon's favorable rating with a $200,000 negative ad campaign media and mailer buy. However, Cianci doesn't have much negative fodder to use against Elorza. He could run an attack campaign based on Elorza's lack of experience, but is it wise to spend campaign money to even mention the name of your relatively unknown opponent? I see Solomon losing much general election support after a two month constant barrage of strong Cianci attack ads over the Solomon troubled insider city loan, disclosure lapses, bankruptcy, sketchy business history, etc. If Cianci succeeds, it becomes a simple race: With both candidates tarnished by ethical troubled, which one is more able to run a city? When it comes to which one is more capable, that's a battle Solomon cannot win. Does anyone doubt that Cianci knows how to be mayor of Providence?
Of course, Solomon has the funds to run a negative campaign against Cianci, but would that work? Is there anyone who doesn't know Cianci's last reign as mayor ended up in a federal prison sentence? Solomon would have to hope that East Siders would hold their noses and vote for him despite his sketchy ethics and personal business history. It's certainly possible, but with this kind of choice, East Side voters might decide to hold their noses and vote for the most competent candidate instead of the least tainted. Then it's game over for Solomon and the Anybody But Cianci forces.
General Election Path to Victory Better For Elorza
Elorza doesn't have any of these problems. If he wins the primary, he will get a huge bump in both fund raising and name recognition. He has little negative baggage to attack, and is smart enough and a good enough debater to stand on a stage with the great debater Cianci and hold his own. Solomon, on the other hand, would get cut to ribbons by Cianci. Elorza is a much tougher out for Cianci. He can dominate on the vote rich East Side as well as the South Side, and hold his own in formerly strong Cianci areas like Silver Lake, Hartford and Olneyville, which are now heavily Latino, and also do well with good government voters in Mt. Pleasant and Elmhurst.
In a Cianci/Solomon match up, maybe some of the East Side vote goes to the GOP's Harrop, instead of being an anti-Cianci bloc that goes big for the Democrat. Solomon wouldn't have the same home court advantage as Elorza with Latino voters in the South Side and Wards 7 and 14, and would get crushed by Buddy with the Old Providence vote in Mt. Pleasant, Federal Hill, Silver Lake, and Elmhurst. If Cianci can cash in on decades long relationships with many Providence Latinos, he could actually best Solomon with this big voting block. Buddy had been to countless quinceaneras, funerals, and parties over the years, and those relationships should best the more recent support Solomon has been able to cultivate with Latinos.
The Solomon campaign might have thought it wise to release this poll to bolster the feeling that he's the man to best Cianci, but to me it says the exact opposite. The poll was taken the week of the Smiley withdrawal/Elorza endorsement on Friday. For four of the five days where the poll was conducted, Solomon was still the presumptive front runner for the Democratic nod for mayor. For the front runner to poll only a meager percentage point ahead of Cianci, after spending all kinds of money campaigning, this isn't something to hold a press conference and brag about. It should be cause for consternation. Someone who has been on TV and spending as much campaign money as much as Solomon, in such an overwhelmingly Democratic city, should be polling at least five percentage points against Cianci, who not even begun campaigning.
It's not going to be easy for the Democratic nominee to beat Buddy Cianci, who has never lost a race for Providence mayor. For the Democratic primary voter who wants to select the best standard bearer to defeat Cianci, the choice is very clear. Jorge Elorza has the ethical background, the intelligence, and the political chops to go toe to toe with the former mayor, and the electoral path to general election victory is favorable for him. Michael Solomon does not, and his path to general election victory is horrible.
Providence 2014 Mayoral Candidates' Top Priorities
Adrain - Top Issue
"Everything starts with the economy. Real progress will happen when Providence becomes more economically competitive and jobs are being created so that everyone benefits. Schools, neighborhoods and opportunities for all will be improved when our economy takes off."
Adrain - Administration
"The top priority in an Adrain Administration would be to create meaningful and long lasting economic change. This is the biggest challenge facing Providence and my experience allows me to help lead Providence's economic recovery."
Elorza - Top Issue
"Providence must be a city of opportunity where businesses choose to locate, where graduates choose to stay, and where families choose to raise their children."
Elorza - Administration
"My top priority is to make Providence that city and to create opportunities-- strong schools, good jobs, and safe communities-- that will allow families in every one of our neighborhoods to thrive."
Harrop - Top Issue
"City finances: $600 million deficit in pension plan, $1billion deficit in benefits plan, reductions -- because of finances -- in police causing public safety concerns (down 75 from several years ago, when the academy graduates at the end of the year, given further retirements, we will really only be back up about 20-25 new officers), reduced ambulance runs, potholes, crumbling schools, etc., etc."
Harrop - Administration
"Getting the unions into the office and reminding them, again, the city cannot pay the pensions it has promised. Again, the GOP said this 8 years ago, and we were right, the Democrats wrong. We are saying this again (this time, the Dems are silent -- interpret that as you will -- I interpret it that they know we are right, but they have problems admitting their complicity in this problem). We can further negotiate reductions, or move to receivership. Until we acknowledge we cannot pay the pensions, we will be unable to come up with the money for any and all of the spending programs the Democrats are proposing. Further increasing the highest commercial tax rates in the nation is not the answer, and only further depresses the city's economic fortunes."
Smiley - Top Issue
"The most pressing issue facing Providence is our economic well-being, and that's why I've made job creation and economic development a centerpiece of my campaign. We've certainly made progress over the past few years and I'm grateful for the work Mayor Taveras has done to bring us back from the verge of bankruptcy, but we're not out of the woods yet."
Smiley - Administration
"With little left to cut and nothing left to tax, my top priority will be to grow the economy and make City Hall a place where anybody, regardless of whether they "know a guy," can easily start or grow a business."
Solomon - Top Issue
"The most pressing issue is economic development, and there are several components to this: creating jobs, growing our middle class and ensuring that every child has access to a good school. As a small business owner, I understand the challenges of running a business. I want to make it easier to do business in Providence. As City Council President, I've taken on those challenges by supporting a freeze on the commercial tax rate and moving the permitting process online, making it easier for developers to do business. I also want to rebuild our middle class and improve education, goals that can be achieved through my plan - "Rebuilding Providence" - which will invest $250 million to create 2,000 jobs and rebuild our schools."
Solomon - Administration
"As Mayor, my top priority will be creating a city with opportunity for all. I will work together with everyone in the community to rebuild Providence's middle class, create jobs and strengthen our schools. I believe the people who know best how to improve our neighborhoods are the people in living in them. As Mayor, I won't be stuck behind a desk at City Hall. I'll be a Mayor in the neighborhoods, working hand in hand with the community to rebuild Providence."
