You Just Cannot Make This Stuff Up! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - June 2, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
You Just Cannot Make This Stuff Up! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - June 2, 2024
“Trump Verdict” -- I have covered a lot of trials in my career, including high-profile cases with dozens of counts. I figured, at best, it would be a mixed bag, perhaps 14 guilty and 20 not guilty. But guilty on ALL 34 counts? I was floored, but it’s not over as the flood of appeals is coming. Former President Donald Trump’s reaction was not a surprise. "This was a disgrace… the real verdict is going to be November 5th by the people, and they know what happened here, and everybody knows what happened here," the former president told reporters again, saying this was a political prosecution from the Biden Justice Department. President Biden fired back, “It’s reckless, it’s dangerous, it’s irresponsible for anyone to say this was rigged just because they don’t like the verdict.” Mr. Biden added, “Our justice system has endured for nearly 250 years, and it literally is the cornerstone of America.
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“What’s Next?” – Can Trump still be president? The answer is simply, “Yes.” He can still vote; he can still be nominated; and he can still take the oath of office if the people so choose. But it could be a bumpy ride. Trump is scheduled for sentencing on July 11, just four days before the Republican National Convention begins in the key swing state of Wisconsin. As a first-time, non-violent offender, prison time is unlikely. Most lawyers I talk to doubt there will be any kind of jail sentence. Even if one is imposed, everything is stayed pending appeals, which will drag out long past Election Day in November.
“Watch the Polls” – As I have said before, convictions just embolden Trump supporters. It seems like every time he faced more criminal charges, his poll numbers went up, not down. The big question lies among the independents, not registered Republicans. The latest Real Clear Politics Composite Poll (of all polls taken before the verdict), has it Trump at 42 percent, Biden at 40 percent, and Bobby Kennedy Jr., at 10 percent, with four percent backing minor party candidates and four percent undecided. Statistically, the race is still a tossup, with the undecideds being the potential “kingmakers.” I can’t wait to see the first post-verdict polls.
“The Biden Circus Arrives in Town” – The whole Trump case is fascinating from what transpired inside the courtroom, and then out on the courthouse lawn. When the trial resumed on Tuesday, the Biden campaign sent a caravan of first responders who protected the Capitol from assault on January 6, 2021. And they were accompanied by actor Robert DeNiro, a Biden supporter. “I don’t mean to scare you. No, wait, maybe I do mean to scare you,” DeNiro said. “If Trump returns to the White House, you can kiss these freedoms goodbye that we all take for granted.” DeNiro also shouted, “You are gangsters!” at the Trump supporters.
“The Trump Side Show” – Not to be outdone, Trump and family members responded in kind. The former president said on Truth Social, “I never knew how small, both mentally and physically, Wacko Former Actor Robert De Niro was,” Trump wrote early Wednesday morning. “De Niro, who suffers from an incurable case of TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME, commonly known in the medical community as TDS.” Donald Trump Jr., who was also at the courthouse, counterpunched De Niro by saying, "Apparently he needs attention because it's been a while since he's cranked out a good movie."
“The Side-by-Side Circus Analysis” – Truth be told, nasty, slappy soundbites from both sides don’t really sway voters. All they do is cement the beliefs of the true believers. The Trump and Biden die-hards are going to love their candidates’ quotes. But does any of this sway the key independents? I doubt it. I believe true independents are concerned about issues such as the economy, immigration, education, and more. Yes, the dueling trial circuses were amusing, but hardly informative or mind-changing.
“Manchin Switch” – On Friday Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), quit the Democratic Party and is now an independent. He issued a statement that read, in part, “I have seen both the Democrat and Republican parties leave West Virginia and our country behind for partisan extremism while jeopardizing our democracy. Today, our national politics are broken and neither party is willing to compromise to find common ground.” There is speculation he may run for Governor of West Viginia as a third-party option.
“The Ohio Express” – It’s one of the most bizarre developments of Campaign 2024. As of now, President Biden is not on the November ballot in Ohio, for various technical reasons. But Gov. Mike DeWine (R) Ohio, whom I’ve known since 1992, is a fair and reasonable man. He called the legislature into special session to make sure Biden’s name was on the ballot. Unless that happens, Biden will be formally nominated as the Democratic presidential nominee through a virtual roll call ahead of the party’s official convention in Chicago in August. The issue is because the Democratic National Convention, where the president would otherwise formally be nominated, comes after Ohio’s ballot deadline of Aug. 7.
“Waving the Alito Flags” – One of the weirdest political stories of the past few weeks just keeps on giving. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito remains under fire after a U.S. flag hung upside down outside his Virginia home. A flag upside down is an international sign of distress, and this one was flown after the January 6th Capitol attacks. Alito says it was his wife – not him – who chose to fly old glory upside down. This week Alito issued a three-page statement saying, in part, “My wife is an independently minded private citizen. She makes her own decisions, and I honor her right to do so.” The problem was compounded by Alito’s flying an “Appeal to Heaven” protest flag outside a New Jersey vacation home. The flag was popular with January 6th protesters, and again the justice cited his wife.
“The Call for Resignation” – Democrats seized on the Alito controversy, with some calling him to resign, while others want him to recuse himself from all cases involving Trump and/or the January 6th cases. A lot is at stake. For example, he could be a key swing vote on President Trump’s claim of absolute immunity for decisions while in office. Alito says his wife enjoys unfettered free speech on these matters like any other U.S. citizen. "I am therefore duty-bound to reject your recusal request," he wrote in a letter to Congress. I’ve predicted the next two justices to resign are Alito and Clarence Thomas. If Biden wins, I believe both will dig in their heels and stay. But if Trump wins, both will go and allow him to appoint their successors.