It’s All about Epstein and the Economy - “The Sunday Political Brunch” - August 3, 2025

It’s All about Epstein and the Economy - “The Sunday Political Brunch” - August 3, 2025

 

The two Es dominate the news in the nation’s capital this week. “E” for Epstein and another “E” for the economy. The two issues are certain to remain front and center as we head into the midterm election cycle. Let’s “brunch” on that and more this week.

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“The Epstein Chronicles Continue” – Lawyers for Ghislaine Maxwell, the girlfriend of the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, are taking her sex trafficking conviction to the U.S. Supreme Court. Maxwell, who was convicted in a Manhattan Federal Court, argues that she should have been protected by a federal non-prosecution deal that Epstein signed in Florida. Her attorney, David Oscar Markus, said, “We are appealing not only to the Supreme Court but to the president himself to recognize how profoundly unjust it is to scapegoat Ghislaine Maxwell for Epstein’s crimes, especially when the government promised she would not be prosecuted.” In a brief filed with the U.S. Supreme Court, the U.S. Justice Department argued, “Petitioner (Maxwell) was not a party to the relevant agreement.” Justice lawyers added, “Only Epstein and the Florida USAO (U.S. Attorney’s Office) were parties.” Other aspects of the Epstein case will likely be in the high court, too. Meanwhile, Maxwell was moved from a federal prison in Florida to one in Texas on Friday, but no reason was given.

 

“Ghislaine Maxwell Before Congress?” – Yes, she may testify before the House Oversight Committee this month, but she and her lawyers have laid out conditions. As noted, Maxwell is trying to get the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn her conviction. In a letter to the committee, lawyer David Markus wrote, “Any testimony she provides now could compromise her constitutional rights, prejudice her legal claims, and potentially taint a future jury pool.” So, he wants complete immunity for Maxwell, meaning no more prosecutions. A spokesperson for the committee was quick to respond. “The Oversight Committee will respond to Ms. Maxwell’s attorney soon, but it will not consider granting congressional immunity for her testimony.” And Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer (R), Kentucky, said, “I don’t think there are many Republicans that want to give immunity to someone that may have been sex trafficking children.” My guess? She’ll get limited immunity going forward, enough to give her a reason to talk. I doubt the Supreme Court will vacate her conviction.

 

“Pardon Me, Mr. President!” – Maxwell’s lawyer also says a presidential pardon would clear her way to testify, but right now, I see that as doubtful. I don’t think Trump wants to do anything to help Epstein posthumously, since he says they had a falling out years ago. Trump said, “He took people that work for me, and I told him, don't do it anymore. And he did it. I said, ‘Stay the hell out of here.’” One of the employees Trump says Epstein stole was a then-underaged girl named Virginia Giuffre, an employee of his Mar-A-Lago resort spa. Giuffre was groomed and trafficked by Maxwell for Epstein’s use. Earlier this year, she died by suicide. I just don’t think Trump is going to throw shade upon himself with a questionable pardon, when he can instead cast more shade on Epstein. Trump has to think about his legacy, and freeing Maxwell, a child-sex trafficker, as he exits his final term, has a very bad look for the history books.

 

“Democrats Push Epstein File Release” – Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D), New York, and other top Democrats are pushing for more files on Epstein to be released. Schumer wrote a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi saying, “After missteps and failed promises by your department regarding these files, it is essential that the Trump Administration provide full transparency.” Democrats are using a 100-year-old Senate rule that allows five or more members of the minority party to request government files, even though they don’t have subpoena power as the majority party does. The procedural rule is rarely used because it has a high rate of failure. The best Democrats can hope for is to be rejected by the Justice Department and then sue in federal court to get the records.

 

“Mixed Economic News” – There was a lot of economic news this week, with some of it good and some of it potentially troubling. We are now just 15 months away from the November 2026 midterm elections, and the economic performance barometers will have a say in the outcome. First off, fears of a recession were abated for now. The second quarter Gross Domestic Product, GDP, grew at an annualized rate of 3 percent. You may recall the GDP had negative growth in the first quarter, and that any two successive negative quarters technically put you in a recession. The Labor Department released a weak report on new jobs, and then Trump fired the official who delivered it.

 

“Economics that Lies Ahead” -- Consumer confidence was up as more people are buying. But was that just to get ahead of paying for new tariffs on goods beginning August 1? The spending numbers next month could be telling. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Board voted to keep interest rates where they are, while President Trump wanted a rate cut. Many countries saw new tariffs go into effect on August 1, but the Mexican tariff was paused for 90 days. Trump also threatened India with a 25 percent tariff. The financial markets ended Friday down sharply.

 

“Harris Out in 2026” – In maybe the biggest political surprise of the week, former Vice President Kamala Harris announced Wednesday that she is not going to run for Governor of California next year. In a statement, Harris said, “I love this state, its people, and its promise. It is my home. But after deep reflection, I’ve decided that I will not run for governor in this election.” Harris also announced she is writing a memoir of her 2024 campaign. “107 Days” will be released in September. The title reflects the shortness of her run after President Biden bowed out. Harris said, “In writing this book, one truth kept coming back to me: sometimes, the fight takes a while.” Given the two announcements, I get the sense that she is seriously considering another bid for the White House in 2028. But I think not adding the title of governor to her resume is a gamble.

 

“Senate Sway” – There is a significant development concerning which party controls the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), North Carolina, has announced he is running for an open U.S. Senate seat. Sen. Tom Tillis (R), North Carolina, who often sparred with President Trump, is declining to run for reelection. Trump carried the state in the past three presidential elections, but North Carolina is still a purple state. Cooper served two terms as governor and four terms as attorney general, and has been on the political landscape for 40 years. He’s a Democrat who has proven he can win statewide, in a state that mostly leans conservative. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate. It’s doable. So far, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who hails from North Carolina, is also in the race. A new Emerson College Poll has it 47 percent for Cooper, 41 percent for Whatley, and 12 percent undecided.

 

“Presidential Campaign Underway Already?” – Sen. Ruben Gallego (D), Arizona, will be visiting New Hampshire in late August. Gallego is seen as a rising star in the national Democratic Party. At 45, he is in his first term in the U.S. Senate, after serving a decade in the U.S. House. He grew up in Chicago, graduated from Harvard, and then spent four years in the U.S. Marines, including deployment to Iraq. Ostensibly, he is going to New Hampshire to campaign for U.S. House and Senate candidates, but is he also testing the waters for a vice-presidential bid? Like North Carolina, Democrats must also win back Arizona if they are to regain the White House in 2028. Gallego is someone to keep an eye on. His resume is very much like that of Vice President JD Vance.