Navigating Some Murky Political Waters - “The Sunday Political Brunch”—June 1, 2025
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Navigating Some Murky Political Waters - “The Sunday Political Brunch”—June 1, 2025
"The DOGE Dodge!" – Tech giant Elon Musk, who was called on to lead DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, said his time in the Trump administration has come "to an end." Musk oversaw significant cuts to the federal workforce, some of which are being challenged in court. He said on his social media platform X, "As my scheduled time as a Special Government Employee comes to an end, I would like to thank President @realDonaldTrump for the opportunity to reduce wasteful spending." Musk added, "The @DOGE mission will only strengthen over time as it becomes a way of life throughout the government." This comes as Musk drew criticism last week for appearing on national TV and questioning the wisdom of Trump's so-called "big, beautiful bill" and whether it would reduce the deficit. Privately, some of Musk's businesses are in serious financial trouble and need his full attention. Like him or not, it made for a fascinating first four months of Trump's return to the White House. Musk said at a joint appearance in the Oval Office with Trump, “I’m confident over time, we will see a trillion dollars in savings.”
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"Legal Losses Mount" – The president wasn't just dealing with the loss of Musk. Trump was also getting beat in the courtroom. One federal judge said Trump could not bar Harvard University from enrolling international students, as he had done in an executive order. That came down as Harvard was holding graduation ceremonies, which included a lengthy standing ovation for University President Alan Garber, who has been fighting Trump. Meanwhile, another federal court ruled that Trump does not have the authority to impose the tariffs he wants on imported goods. The District Court of Appeals quickly overturned that decision. Both cases are likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court. This becomes even more interesting because the Supreme Court traditionally concludes its term on June 30 and does not reconvene until the first Monday in October. Some of these legal issues could remain unresolved for months unless the high court decides to convene in a rare emergency session. On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that Team Trump could end a special immigration program that could lead to deportation of half a million people from Cuba, Haiti, Venezuela, and, Nicaragua.
"Oh, to Be a Fly on the Wall!" – In a surprise meeting, Trump hosted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the White House Thursday. The president has been pressuring the Fed chair to lower interest rates. At times, it's gotten personal with Trump calling Powell a "fool" and a "major loser." Of the recent meeting, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, "The president did say that he believes the Fed chair is making a mistake by not lowering interest rates, which is putting us at an economic disadvantage to China and other countries." In the past, Powell said the Fed will not engage in "politics." His office issued a statement Thursday saying in part, "Chair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.” So, will interest rates be lowered? Maybe it's a coin flip!
"The Physics of Politics" – What did they teach us about the meaning of inertia in school? For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The "push and pull" of politics has a similar effect. President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on goods imported from many countries for weeks, sparking a market reaction. Many U.S. companies are now threatening to raise prices to pass the costs of the tariffs onto consumers. They include retailers Walmart and Temu, Ford and Subaru carmakers, Mattel toymakers, Adidas, Procter & Gamble, and Black & Decker. Trump has promised to delay 50% tariffs on European Union countries until July 9.
"The Political Give and Take" – Let's assume the tariffs cause inflation to spike, at least in the short term. As of Tuesday, June 3, we are just 17 months from the 2026 midterm elections. Trump is hoping the tariffs will prompt U.S. companies to stop making items overseas and bring many of those manufacturing jobs back to America. But how long might that take to show up positively in economic data? Most states will have primary elections well before the November showdowns. Bad news usually hurts the party in power. With Republicans holding a slim three-vote majority in the U.S. Senate and a similar slim majority in the U.S. House, one can see the party potentially losing control of one or both chambers. Neither scenario benefits the final two years of the Trump agenda. He very much needs the GOP to hold both chambers.
"Trump Impeachment III?" – Given the slim majority in the House, many Democrats are chomping at the bit to regain control. If they do, we will likely see another impeachment inquiry of President Trump. One of Trump's most outspoken critics is Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D) Texas. Crockett is now running for Chair of the House Oversight Committee if her party wins the majority. Crockett says Trump will be scrutinized, saying, "We will conduct oversight, that means that we will investigate, we will look at whether or not this president himself has violated the Emoluments Clause as relates to say such things as getting a $400 million plane from the Qataris." He was impeached twice in his first term, but was never removed from office by the Senate. "What the hell did I do? Here they go again, they want to impeach me," Trump said to jeers at a recent rally. He added, "No, they've gone totally crazy."
"Big, Beautiful Bill in Trouble?" – Here's the reality of the political math. With a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate, Republicans can lose three GOP votes but still have Vice President JD Vance come in and break a 50-50 tie. Already, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) Wisconsin is one of those likely no votes. Johnson said of the House-passed measure, "I'm hoping now we'll actually start looking at reality." He added, "I know everybody wants to go to Disney World, but we just can't afford it." Other Republicans agree the bill does not do enough to reduce spending and debt. Sen. Rand Paul (R) Kentucky said, "I think if you're going to raise the debt ceiling $4 or $5 trillion, it indicates that the project afoot isn't going to fix the deficit at all." Look for Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska or Susan Collins (R) Maine to be that third no vote. And if both say no, it's dead.
"The Politics of Planes" – As a frequent traveler, I have been somewhat unnerved by the radar and radio outages at Newark Liberty International Airport, as well as some more brief problems at airports from Denver to Atlanta. A significant amount of infrastructure is outdated and has not been upgraded or modernized. So, when I see a phenomenon such as DOGE coming to slash the budgets of federal agencies, I maintain that public safety must be the first priority. To that end, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is pushing a $12.5 billion upgrade to the air traffic system as part of the "big, beautiful bill." Duffy said, "We have an antiquated and old air traffic control system, anywhere from 25 to 35, 40 years old in some places." Duffy added. "It is in desperate need of a brand-new build." I don't mean to "cherry-pick" here, but I think it's money well spent. Aviation is a huge part of the U.S. economy. Please don't mess with it!