I Beg Your Pardon? Pardon Me! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - January 26, 2025

I Beg Your Pardon? Pardon Me! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - January 26, 2025

Over the past few months, I’ve written a few times about my disdain for pardons and clemencies from those on both sides of the aisle. Generally speaking, I find them to be disrespectful of the hard work put forth by investigators, prosecutors, judges, and juries. And I think they are a downright slap in the face to crime victims. I basically only support pardons, if new evidence is put forward that casts grave doubts on the guilt of the accused. Anyway, I think we’re on a dangerous path, so let’s “brunch” on that and other political nuggets this week.

 

“The Tit for Tat” – Did you ever have a childhood fight with a sibling? Inevitably, a parent would intervene and try to assess blame. “He started it!” my sister would yell, and I would counter with, “No, she started it!” This now sounds like former President Joe Biden and now President Donald Trump and their supporters on the pardon issue. Since Trump was president before Biden, some of his first-term departure pardons may have stirred a “get even” philosophy. Then both Biden and Trump signaled there would be more pardons this week and the avalanche came. I think both men have set a bad precedent for their successors. What’s coming next, a new TV game show or reality program called “Un-Jeopardy?” I’m not being cute. One can imagine convicts on both sides of the aisle, promising to support a certain candidate in exchange for a pardon. This is nuts!

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“And We’re Not Done Yet” -- Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, in New York City. It was launched five years ago, and it takes odds on economic activity, weather forecasts, elections, sports, and more. It is now even handicapping who else Trump may pardon next. It correctly put Ross Ulbricht, who founded the black-market firm Silk Road, at the top of the list. The 40-year-old tech and crypto wizard was serving a life sentence for online drug trafficking, computer hacking, and various conspiracies. He’s something of an online celebrity in the tech and libertarian communities, who many feel was railroaded by the FBI and wrongly convicted. Elon Musk was among those pressing Trump to free Ulbricht, and he did.

 

“Others Up for Clemency” – Former White House aide and Trump loyalist Steve Bannon, is all but certain to be pardoned. He is serving federal time for contempt of Congress for refusing to testify about the January 6 Capitol riots. Roger Ver, another cryptocurrency genius known as, “Bitcoin Jesus,” is also being put forth for a commuted sentence.  New York Mayor Eric Adams and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani may get clemency. Even whistleblowers Edward Snowden and Julian Assange are mentioned for potential Trump pardons. One thing the Biden and Trump lists have in common, is the presence of wealthy, influential people who can afford a different standard of justice. Again, I think these two presidents are setting the gold standard for what future “pardon parades” will look like, and I don’t see the poor and powerless getting equal standing. Meanwhile, post-conviction pardons are clearly Constitutional, but the issue of pre-emptive pardons for someone not even charged could face a court battle.

 

“The Rebirth of Birthright Citizenship” – During his flurry of Executive Orders on Monday, Trump banned the practice of “birthright citizen.” Simply put, the 14th Amendment says if you are born on U.S. soil, you’re a U.S. citizen, even if one or both of your parents are not here legally. By Thursday, a federal judge issued a restraining order. Judge John Coughenour – a Ronald Reagan appointee - said, “I have been on the bench for over four decades. I can’t remember another case whether the question presented was as clear.” The judge ruled Trump’s order as “blatantly unconstitutional.” I’m not a lawyer, but I expect this to go all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, where I predict a 9-0 vote upholding the lower courts. I believe it’s that clear!

 

“Trump is Everywhere! Why?” – In the first 100 hours of the second Trump presidency, he was everywhere and was not shying away from reporters, with seemingly constant press availabilities. He even went to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, which is normally a liberal hangout. Why? My educated guess is that Trump is on the fast track. Yes, he has a four-year term, but in truth and practicality he has just two years to get his agenda done, and so it’s pedal-to-the-metal time. Thirty-three Senate seats are up for election on November 3, 2026. Of those, 20 are held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats. The new Senate majority could be short-lived, and we already have our first example.

 

“Pardon Me if I Change Topics!” – Obviously, there is a ton of other political news to chew on, so let’s go there. Last week I opined that Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth probably had the votes to get through the Senate confirmation process. Friday night, he did, but only by the skin of his teeth. Late in the process, members of the U.S. Senate were provided with a signed affidavit from Hegseth’s former sister-in-law. She says Hegseth was abusive to his second wife. U.S. Senator Jack Reed (D) Rhode Island, the Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Service Committee, said, “The alleged pattern of abuse and misconduct by Mr. Hegseth is disturbing. This behavior would disqualify any service member from holding any leadership position in the military, much less being confirmed as the Secretary of Defense.” Hegseth’s lawyer Tim Parlatore denied the allegations, saying, "Samantha (Hegseth) has never alleged that there was any abuse, she signed court documents acknowledging that there was no abuse and recently reaffirmed the same during her FBI interview.”

 

“She Said! He Said!” – I take the allegations and denials seriously. I give both sides a fair shake in saying their peace. But as I often say in this column, “Politics is as much as much about math, as it is about ideology.” In other words, you may have the best idea, or best candidate for a job, but if you don’t have the votes, it doesn’t get done. Going in to the final vote we knew Sens. Susan Collins (R) Maine and Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska would oppose Hegseth. That made the outcome appear to be 51-49, but then more drama unfolded.  Former Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky and President Trump despise each other, and McConnell came forward and also voted no on Hegseth, citing his lack of experience. With a 50-50 deadlock Vice President JD Vance was summoned to break the tie, and Hegseth will now run the Pentagon.

 

“You Guys in the Same Party? -- Do you want some context for the Trump v. McConnell feud? In 2021, Trump called McConnell a "dumb son of a bitch". Trump adding, "I hired his wife (Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao). Did he ever say thank you?" And McConnell blamed Trump for the January 6 Capitol riots, saying on the Senate floor, “Former President Trump's actions preceding the riot were a disgraceful dereliction of duty... There is no question that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day.” You can expect two more years of these fireworks, but McConnell is not running again in 2026.