Be Careful What You Wish For! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – Nov. 24, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Be Careful What You Wish For! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – Nov. 24, 2024
“Gaetz Out; Bondi In” – As I predicted last week, former Rep. Matt Gaetz would not make the cut for U.S. attorney general. On Thursday, he withdrew his name from consideration, and former Trump defense lawyer and former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi was nominated in his place. Two female Republican senators came out immediately against Gaetz, and if two more GOP senators of either gender joined them, Gaetz was toast. His real problems were bipartisan, gender-based, and math-based. There are now 25 women in the U.S. Senate, the most in history. There was no way they were going to give a guy suspected of trafficking a teenage girl for sex a pass, even if the case was not criminally prosecuted. Gaetz denied the claims, but the accusations were just too toxic. Even though he was reelected in November, he will not take office.
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“Reviewing My Predictions” – OK, two weeks ago, I beat my chest, saying, “Look how good my predictions were.” Well, not so much. Yes, I predicted Trump would win the Electoral College and popular vote, but I predicted Harris would win Michigan and Wisconsin. I was wrong on both states. The Senate was my best, as I “leaned in” on the possible 53-47 majority with Republicans possibly with upsets in Ohio and Pennsylvania, which is my backyard. I was spot on! But my biggest failure was predicting Democrats would retake the House. In fact, Republicans will likely wind up with a 221-to-214 majority, with a one-seat gain. So, my bad, as my crystal ball got a bit foggy. But all this portends to possible troubles ahead for the GOP in 2026.
“A Short Lame-Duck Majority” – Normally, a president’s second term is a four-year lame-duck session, but Trump’s second term is non-consecutive with his first. It’s only the second time in U.S. history that has happened. But, when Grover Cleveland did it in 1892, there were no term limits. Those only came after FDR’s fourth term in the White House, when the Constitution was amended to a two-term maximum. I predict Trump’s lame-duck session will only last two years and he will be handcuffed beyond 2026.
“Let’s Look at the Senate” – The numbers favored Republicans this year. Of the 34 contested seats, Democrats had 19, plus four independents who caucused with them for a total of 23. Republicans were only defending 11 seats. With those odds, it was not a surprise to see the GOP take control with a 53-47 majority. But in 2026, the numbers will be reversed with Republicans defending 20 incumbent seats to only 13 for Democrats. That gives the Democrats a fair shot at retaking the upper chamber, depending on what happens over the next two years. Republicans need to be concerned about the math.
“Let’s Look at the House" – Before the 2024 election, Republicans held a net majority of 5 seats. While I predicted they’d lose control, it appears they’ve actually gained a little ground. Going into the 2024 vote there were 220 Republicans to 213 Democrats with two vacant seats. The totals are still undecided, but my best guess is Republicans will have a 221-to-214 majority. Like the Senate, the margin could be easily flipped in 2026. The bottom line, the Trump-Vance team needs to work fast and pass as much of its agenda as it can in the next two years. Again, they face a challenging math problem in the 2026 midterms.
“The Supreme Challenge” – For months, I have been predicting that either Justice Clarence Thomas and/or Justice Samuel Alito would be the next to retire from the U.S. Supreme Court. Now that’s on the fast track and I bet both will retire in the next year, or so. That will give Trump the opportunity to nominate and confirm two more conservative justices, but he must do so before the 2026 Senate elections. If Senate Democrats take control, they will shut him down. By the way, this will also be true for many federal judges at the District Court level and in the District Courts of Appeal. With three Trump nominees on the U.S. Supreme Court already, the federal court system is where Trump will likely have his longest-lasting influence, and perhaps for two or three decades to come.
“Where Else Does this Matter?” – Some of the 2017 income tax cuts will end in the next year or two. The GOP needs to put them on the fast track and get them done before the 2026 election, or they may never happen. If tax cuts truly put more money in the average person’s pockets and collectively stimulate the economy, then it’s in the Republican Party’s best interests to do this ASAP. Even if they retain their majority in 2026, it may be more difficult to pass in the final two Trump years, based on how the overall economy is doing. Again, as with the courts, it’s a high-speed agenda.
“The Reagan Parallel” – The only similar elections in my lifetime were the Ronald Reagan landslide over Jimmy Carter in 1980 and then Walter Mondale in 1984. Republicans swept control of the U.S. Senate in 1980, and had a philosophical majority with Southern Democrats in the U.S. House. Reagan could reign as he wished, with huge tax cuts and huge increases in defense spending. But by 1986, Democrats seized control of the U.S. Senate, and Reagan, handcuffed by the Iran Contra scandal, was largely neutralized in his final two years in office. Trump could see a similar fate. Again, the goal is to hit the agenda with lightning speed.
“The Road Ahead” - Donald Trump’s second term will mark the 14th presidency in my lifetime, as I was born within Eisenhower’s final two years. Since we count Trump twice (as we did with Cleveland), I have lived under 14 of 45 presidents, so almost one-third of U.S. presidencies. And I have covered all, or part of, every presidential campaign since 1980, which totals 12 elections. Yikes! Not that anyone’s counting. It’s been the most fascinating ride of my lifetime and career!