Momentum Shift Continues in Presidential Race – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Momentum Shift Continues in Presidential Race – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
“Harris’s ‘Poll’ Vault” – The polls remain airtight, but VP Kamala Harris is inching ahead, but by tiny margins. When did this shift? Well, up until August 5th, former President Donald Trump was comfortably ahead of President Joe Biden, and then ahead of Harris when Biden stepped away. But on August 5th, Harris finally took the lead in the Real Clear Politics Composite Poll, albeit, by just .2 percent of the vote. That was the day she announced her pick of Gov. Tim Walz (D) Minnesota as her running mate. A week later, the Democrat’s lead had inched up to 1.0 percent, with Harris favored by 48.1 percent to 47.1 for Trump. Yes, her lead is small but is slowly growing.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST
“The Biden Factor?” – Thursday, President Biden and VP Harris appeared in public for the first time since he dropped out. It was at a campaign rally in Maryland, so it was a “hometown crowd” with people chanting, “Thank you Joe, thank you Joe!” He is also supposed to speak on the first night of this week’s Democratic National Convention, in Chicago. It will be interesting to see how much the Harris team will have him be active in the campaign. Biden is running hot and cold right now, and they certainly do not want a “Debate Joe” appearance that could turn off wavering voters. The party faithful still loves him, but you risk losing undecided or independent voters if it looks like he’s too involved.
“Chicago Convention” – The Democratic National Convention convenes in Chicago this week. We will hear more about the Harris-Walz economic agenda laid out Friday, that could lead to caps on prices for certain items. "Extreme consolidation in the food industry has led to higher prices that account for a large part of higher grocery bills," the Harris campaign said in a statement on Friday. Trump characterized government price limits as “full communist.”
“Trump’s Troubles” – There have been multiple reports over the past few weeks, that there are internal conflicts within the Trump campaign. Some advisors are said to be dissatisfied with Trump’s focus on side issues and personal attacks. I cannot say I disagree. Wednesday in North Carolina, Trump said of Harris, “She’s crazy. She’s not smart. She’s not intelligent.” In the past week, he has also criticized her and her campaign for exaggerating crowd sizes at her rallies. No one cares!
“Trump’s Need to Refocus” - His two best issues have been the economy and immigration, and those are the two issues voters care about the most. Here’s an easy campaign commercial: show video of illegal border crossings and remind voters that Biden put Harris in charge of the Southern Border. Here is another: show prices at gas pumps and at grocery stores, then talk about how inflation was lower four and five years ago. These are issues voters care about, not crowd size! And he wonders why his lead has vanished. A wandering, rambling two-hour discussion on X with Elon Musk did him no favors either.
“Harris’s Counter Punch” – As mentioned, immigration is Harris’s Achilles Heel. It is the issue on which she is most vulnerable. Her counter is that she and Biden had a bipartisan bill in Congress for immigration reform. They had enough votes to pass it, but then Trump intervened and appealed directedly to certain vulnerable House and Senate Republicans, that they should reject the bill or feel his wrath. It worked and Trump effectively killed the bill. On the economy, Harris needs to zero in on the fact that inflation in August dropped to 2.9 percent. Yes, Republicans will point to 9 percent inflation a few years ago, but 2.9 percent makes a nice, “What have you done for me lately bumper sticker.” Medicare prescription drug prices are down as well. You can see that the sides will go back-and-forth on these issues in a debate.
“Abortion in Arizona” – I have said repeatedly in this column over the past few months, that I believed abortion and reproductive rights have now risen to the top three issues, along with the economy and immigration. It could play a key role in swing states, including Arizona. State elections officials now have enough signatures to put an abortion initiative on the November ballot. The same for Missouri, but right now it’s a solidly red state. Trump had a solid lead over Biden in Arizona, where Biden-Harris won in 2020. Now the polls in Arizona have tightened into a dead heat. A ballot initiative is something that motivates people to get out and vote, and states that have put the issue on the ballot were often driven by pro-choice voters, motivated by the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Even voters in the red states of Ohio and Kansas approved a legal abortion initiative. Arizona is now a linchpin on this issue and on determining who sits in the White House. Right now, this is a potentially big Harris advantage.
“Manchin on Walz” – Where are independent voters likely to go this year, or those who are not enamored with either party? One bellwether on these questions is Sen. Joe Manchin (I) West Virginia, who opted out of a third-party bid this year and quit the Democrat Party. One indication is Manchin’s praise of Harris’s VP pick Tim Walz. Manchin said, “My friend Governor Tim Walz will bring normality back to the most chaotic political environment that most of us have ever seen. All of the candidates were strong and any one of them would have been a great pick, but I can think of no one better than Governor Walz to help bring our country closer together and bring balance back to the Democratic Party.” That sounds like an endorsement to me.
“Speaking of the VP Race” – CBS News has confirmed that Sen. J.D. Vance (R) and Gov. Tim Walz (D) have agreed to a vice-presidential debate on October 1. There have been times when the VP gabfest was far more entertaining than the presidential debates. Remember the Lloyd Bentsen v. Dan Quayle “smackdown” over a Jack Kennedy comparison in 1988?; the Admiral James Stockdale, “Who am I? Why am I here?” meandering quote in 1992. Then there was Sen. Bob Dole (R) in 1976, saying more Americans died in “Democrat wars,” as if it were a contest. I believe the Vance v. Walz contest could be lively. As I mentioned last week, they were both regional candidates picked to help score as many industrial, upper-Midwest states for their teams as possible.
“Timing Could be Crucial” – Sen. Vance has also challenged Gov. Walz to debate on September 18. That is interesting since that is the same day Trump is scheduled to be sentenced for his money-laundering conviction. Speaking of which Trump has asked the judge to move the sentencing until after the November 5th election, claiming a sentencing seven weeks before voting would amount to “election interference.” The judge has yet to rule. Meanwhile, Trump and Harris have also agreed to debate on September 10th. It is going to be a busy month!