President Biden’s Five-Alarm Fire – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - July 7, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
President Biden’s Five-Alarm Fire – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - July 7, 2024
“Damage Control” – Biden made a number of scripted appearances this week, speaking with a teleprompter (as most presidents do). He was, at many times, smooth and forceful, albeit rehearsed. Before a live audience in Madison, Wisconsin, a key swing state, Biden said, “I am running and going to win again…. I am the nominee of the Democratic Party…. Well, guess what? They are trying to push me out of the race. Well, let me say this as clearly as I can. I’m staying in the race. I will beat Donald Trump,” and the crowd cheered wildly.
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“One-on-One, and Undone?” - Friday, Biden also did a one-on-one interview with ABC News Anchor George Stephanopoulos, who once was a high-ranking operative in President Bill Clinton’s campaigns and administration. I think many in the GOP thought Stephanopoulos would throw softballs, but he was tough. While it’s one thing to be scripted with a teleprompter, this interview was spontaneous, and at one point early on, the president appeared unsteady again. The president said it was a “bad episode” and that he was exhausted from a bad cold. Biden said, “I was sick, I was feeling terrible.” Then it got interesting. Stephanopoulos asked, “Did you watch the debate afterwards?” Biden answered, “I don’t think I did, no.” It was only a week ago, and he’s not sure?
“And it Gets Worse” – Shortly after that remark, Stephanopoulos asked Mr. Biden about his debate preps. This is his rambling answer verbatim. Biden said, “The whole way I prepared, nobody’s fault, mine. Nobody’s fault but mine. I prepared, what I usually would do, sit down as I did, come back from foreign leaders or the National Security Council, for explicit detail. And I realized, about part way through, that you know I get quoted, The New York Times had me down ten points before the debate, nine now, or whatever the hell it is. The fact of the matter is that what I looked at, is that he (Trump) also lied 28 times. I couldn’t, I mean the way that the debate ran, not… my fault, no one else’s fault.” Stephanopoulos interrupted, “But it seemed like you were having trouble from the first question in, even before he spoke? Biden responded, “Well I just had a bad night.” These were the first two minutes of the ABC interview. I don’t think members of his own party will find reassurance in this interview. Yes, it was better than the debate, but I don’t think he'll get a bounce.
“Biden’s Battle Intensifies” – On Tuesday, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D) Texas became the first Democrat, to publicly call on the president to step away from the nomination. Doggett said in a statement Tuesday that Biden should “make the painful and difficult decision to withdraw.” Reps. Seth Moulton (D-MA), Mike Quigley (D-IL), and Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ) also called for him to drop out, but that’s only four of 213 House members. And former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi was asked if it was appropriate for people to raise questions about Biden’s mental health. She said, "It is a legitimate question" whether Biden's halting performance is just “an episode or, is this a condition?” She added, “When people ask that question, it’s legitimate -- of both candidates.” That’s hardly a ringing endorsement for Biden. The Democratic National Convention is August 19th to 22nd, in Chicago. That’s where a different nominee could be picked.
“Can Any Democrat Beat Trump?” – While Biden and Trump have been neck-and-neck in so many polls, it raises questions about which replacement Democrat could beat Trump. A poll this week from Reuters/Ipsos shows former First Lady Michelle Obama beating Trump 50 to 39 percent. But the poll shows other Democrats, including Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), and Vice President Kamala Harris, all losing to Trump. So, replacing Biden comes with no guarantees.
“My Prediction” – Based on all of the above, I believe Biden will eventually withdraw his reelection bid, or the party will revolt and replace him. There are three potentially serious consequences here: 1) If he stays in, they could lose the White House; 2) Major Democratic donors are already pulling their money off the table; and 3) Biden could hurt close down ballot races for U.S. House and Senate and cost his party control of both chambers of Congress. The collateral damage is what’s making members of Congress and Democratic governors nervous.
“But President Reagan Had a Bad Debate, too!” – He did, but not this bad. In the first presidential debate in 1984 against Walter Mondale, President Reagan was describing a drive he took in his car down California’s Pacific Coast Highway. Reagan’s speech was meandering, and seemed like he lost his focus, and could not complete the story. There were a couple of other moments when he stumbled. It was brutal, but really only a few miscues in the debate. Still at 73, he was the oldest U.S. president and was seeking a second term. There were lots of questions in the press and public as to whether he could rebound, and whether he was mentally fit enough.
“The Reagan Rebound” – While his staff tried to come up with damage control as they prepared for the next debate, Reagan said, “Don’t worry, I got this.” He knew questions about age and mental health would come up in the second debate. When they did, Reagan said, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth, and inexperience!" The debate audience erupted in laughter, and so too, did Democratic nominee Walter Mondale. Reagan redeemed himself, but keep in mind, the second debate was only two weeks after the first. Biden’s second debate against Trump isn’t until mid-September. That’s a long time for voters to have the impressions from the first debate simmering in their minds. And Biden’s humor and delivery are not on Reagan’s level.
“The Triple-Trump Wins” – The courtrooms have not been kind to the former president but this week that may have changed. On a 6-3 U.S. Supreme Court vote, justices said he did not have total immunity, but rather broad immunity for official actions as president. Will that mean some of the election interference cases and those related to the January 6th attack at the capitol, will never be tried, or pushed until after the election? The judge in the New York hush money trial, where Trump was convicted of 34 felonies, moved the sentencing in that case from this month to September. Some of the allegations in that case stem from actions before he was president, but some stem from actions while in the Oval Office, so will they be tossed out on appeal due to immunity?
“Speaking of History” – I have heard too many network reporters say, “This is the first time in U.S. history that a current president is facing off against a former president.” That is not true! In 1888, former U.S. Senator Benjamin Harrison defeated President Grover Cleveland, who was trying to win a second term. Then, in 1892, Cleveland ran to get his old job back, and he defeated Harrison in the rematch. If Trump wins this year, he will join Cleveland as the only president to serve non-consecutive terms. Now, if you want trivia or history, 2024 will be the first time both nominees will be a lame duck, no matter who wins. That is because back in the Cleveland-Harrison days, there were no presidential term limits.