Trump Tames His Tailspin, Temporarily – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - June 9, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Trump Tames His Tailspin, Temporarily – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - June 9, 2024
“The Trump Bounce Trounce” – A poll by Morning Consult was one of the first taken after Trump’s convictions. It had Trump at 44 percent to 43 percent for Biden. Hardly a tsunami, but still a lead. On the other hand, a composite from all recent polls conducted by Newsweek shows Biden leading with 46.3 percent of the vote, to Trump's 46.1 percent. We’re splitting hairs here. This race – despite all the negative press and consternation – remains a tossup.
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“Trump Trials: One” – Trump is facing so many legal proceedings you almost need a scorecard to keep track. But the trick is to estimate how many of them play out before Election Day. While Trump is facing federal charges in Florida for allegedly stashing classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate, the judge in that case has revised the court calendar. Judge Aileen Cannon is set to rule on the merits of that case, but also the more sprawling legal question of whether or not Special Counsel Jack Smith has exceeded his authority in trying to prosecute this case. Given the fact that Trump and Biden are scheduled to debate just six days later, this case will most certainly be continued until a later date.
"Trump Trials: Two” – Trump also won a temporary victory in his State of Georgia trial on whether he tried to interfere with the state election certification process. The case has already been clouded by the fact that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Wallis admitted to having an affair with a special prosecutor hired in the case. He is now gone, she is not, and was in fact just reelected to her post. Still, a stench remains, and the case has been delayed pending a motion to the Federal Court of Appeals. Like, the above-referenced Florida case, it may not be heard until after Election Day. If that’s true, it’s a Trump legal victory.
“Why Does This Help Trump?” – The short answer is that it may move most of this legal drama until after the November election. Yes, Trump was found guilty on all 34 felony counts in New York, but that will be appealed, and some could be overturned before Election Day. With delays, the other two cases may not be tried until after November 5th. Regardless of the schedule, Trump may be put back in office by the voters and that is pretty hard, if not impossible, to undo. He remains viable. New York prosecutors are also trying to get his gun permit revoked as he is now a convicted felon. That will just further embolden 2nd Amendment backers who are lining up behind him.
“Biden’s Legal Woes” – The saga over Hunter Biden’s federal gun charge played out in a Delaware courtroom this week, with an ex-wife and ex-girlfriend testifying about his drug use and gun ownership. He even had an affair with his former sister-in-law. Why does any of this matter? It doesn’t because he’s not the candidate. And for Trump backers who claim their candidate is being selectively prosecuted? Well, the same U.S. Justice Department is overseeing the Biden matter. Both sides can chant, “No one is above the law.” But at its worst, Hunter may only be found guilty of being the “Billy Carter” or “Roger Clinton” of the Biden clan.
“A Criminal Referral” – More problematic for the Bidens is that on Wednesday, the Republican chairmen of the House Oversight, Judiciary, and Ways & Means committees sent a letter to the Justice Department recommending the prosecution of presidential son Hunter Biden and presidential brother James Biden. The House is running an impeachment inquiry into the president, suggesting he helped get his son and brother sweetheart international business deals. Joe Biden “never had any involvement” in the business dealings of other members of his family, James Biden testified earlier this year on Capitol Hill. Of course, if Democrats retake the House in November – and they have a very strong chance – the impeachment attempt vanishes.
“Lame Duck vs. Lame Duck” – Here is something important to think about, although it’s getting zero media coverage. This will be the first time in American history, that both nominees will be lame ducks. Neither can run or serve as president again. So, how do you set an agenda that the American public will back, knowing that you won’t be back? The other big questions fall on the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. How loyal will each party’s members be, given the razor-thin majority either will hold in each chamber? This will affect key votes on things such as immigration and the economy. Trust me, we are five months away, but party allegiance to the agenda will gel fast.
“The Independent Bandwagon” – This week indicted Sen. Bob Menedez (D), New Jersey, who announced he would launch a third-party bid for reelection in November, but as an independent. Last week, it was Sen. Joe Manchin (I), West Virginia, bolting the Democratic Party. They join Sens. Angus King (I) Maine, Bernie Sanders (I) Vermont, and Krysten Sinema (I) Arizona. While they all caucus with the Democrats, I believe it’s the first time in my life (65 years), that we’ve had five independents in the U.S. Senate While we believe Manchin won’t launch a third-party bid for his current seat, what if he does? This power structure in the U.S. Senate is on the line right now.
“Rest in Peace” – The weird political story of the week was the June 5th primary win by Rep. Donald Payne, Jr., (D) New Jersey. This despite his death in April. Before his death after 12 years in Congress, his dad Donald Payne, Sr., held the same Congressional seat for 24 years. Apparently, the people of the 10th Congressional District loved the collective 36 years of service from the Payne family, they gave him one last posthumous term! Details of a special election are pending. In the death of a House member, no Governor has the power to fill the vacancy. It can only be done with a special election, or on the next regularly scheduled election, which in in November.
