Are the Political Winds About to Shift? – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Are the Political Winds About to Shift? – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
“Is Minnesota Up for Grabs?” – It’s simply jaw-dropping. A recent poll conducted jointly by KARE-11 TV, Minnesota Public Radio, and the Star Tribune newspaper, has President Joe Biden at 45 percent and former President Donald Trump nipping at his heels with 41 percent. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling at 6 percent, with two percent choosing another third-party candidate. That leaves 6 percent undecided, and the potential kingmakers. This state is so blue, the last time a Republican nominee won here was Richard Nixon in 1972. And the two before that were Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956. It’s the “bluest of the blue” states and twice produced the Democratic presidential nominee in that period.
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“So, What’s Changed?” – In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, three rust belt states that traditionally voted Democrat. It was Trump’s ticket to the White House. But it is often forgotten that Trump almost swept Minnesota into that fold. He only lost to Clinton by 1.5 percent of the vote. Republicans have been able to tap into a huge economic disconnection among voters in the upper Midwest. So many of the factories of the post-World War Two boom are gone, and people migrated south. This dissatisfaction is particularly high among African-American male voters in these states, who now feel Democrat policies failed them, and they did better financially under Trump. The polling consistently tells us this as the same states are on the bubble in 2024.
“Uh-oh, Ohio!” – For many years, Ohio was THE key battleground swing state, but then it began trending reliably red. From 1964 to 2016, whichever presidential nominee from either party won Ohio, also won the White House. That streak ended in 2020, when Trump carried Ohio again, but lost to Biden in November. That’s quite a run. Historically, no Republican has ever won the White House unless they won Ohio. That’s amazing. I tell you all of this because the latest Marist poll has Trump leading by 7 points, 48 to 41 percent. Considering that Trump won Ohio in both 2016 and 2020 by 8 percent, you might think I am exaggerating a concern. I’m not.
“Why Ohio May Be An ‘Outlier’ in 2024 – Reason One” – I firmly believe the state is in play. Here’s why. Ohio is one of a handful of states that put the abortion question to voters in a statewide ballot initiative, after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, that legalized abortions nationwide. The high court left it up to individual states to decide and many have on both sides of the issue, and Ohio voters backed reproductive choice.
“Why Ohio May Be An ‘Outlier’ in 2024 – Reason Two” – Ohio also has a highly competitive Senate race between incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio and businessman Bernie Moreno. Control of the U.S. Senate, which has sole authority on approving or rejecting high court nominees, hangs in the balance. The abortion issue is a “top three” issue in my estimation this year and what happens in Ohio could have far-reaching consequences. Moreno has some mixed baggage on Trump. In 2016 Moreno described Trump as a "lunatic invading [the Republican Party]" and said he could not support a Republican Party led by "that maniac". In 2024 Moreno said, "I wear with honor my endorsement from President Trump," who helped him win the primary. Now, he’s on the Trump train as, “politics makes for strange bedfellows,” as the old saying goes.
“Hunter Biden Guilty” – This past week a Delaware jury found presidential son Hunter Biden guilty on three federal gun charges related to a handgun he bought years ago. On the purchase application is a box where you check whether you are addicted or under the influence of drugs. Hunter checked no, even though the answer was yes. While we were told he might testify in his own defense, he did not, and as a legal observer with thousands of hours in courtrooms, I think it was a big mistake. But I’m not a lawyer. His lifetime story of bitter family tragedy might have swayed jurors, especially in his own words.
“The Fallout?” – Switching my hats from legal analyst to political analyst, I don’t think there will be any political fallout for President Biden. This won’t even bump Biden’s numbers up or down an inch. My guess is Hunter will be given probation and/or community service and that will be the end of this for a first-time offender. It’s a sad story of substance abuse and addiction that many families have had to deal with. President Trump’s brother died of alcoholism for example, so it’s hard to see this as any kind of wedge issue. It’s sad but has nothing to do with voters’ top-tier issues of inflation, immigration, education, and abortion.
“On the Other Hand” – There continues to be a Congressional impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives, but it is really not progressing anywhere. At the same time, there are continuing rumors and innuendo that President Biden will pardon his son or commute his sentence. On Thursday in Europe, the president said, "I said I abide by the jury decision. I will do that. And I will not pardon him." But if Biden loses in November, there is no downside to a pardon or commutation, as Biden will probably never appear on a ballot again. This is an issue to keep an eye on.