Debate Could Change Direction of Campaign ‘24 – “The Sunday Political Brunch” June 23, 2024

Debate Could Change Direction of Campaign ‘24 – “The Sunday Political Brunch” June 23, 2024

 

 

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Mark the date on your calendar! June 27, 2024, is the first presidential debate of this season between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. A lot is riding on this debate, as most polls indicate the race is very close at this time. The key for each is to highlight their accomplishments and avoid major gaffes. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

 

“My Common Advice for Both” – First of all, come out and shake hands, and do so at the end. It’s the courteous and professional thing to do. And, they need to remember, they are not just representing themselves, they are also representing the office both have held. So, be respectful of the office, even if you’re criticizing your opponent. Keep criticism factual, not personal. For example, Biden could say “Trump was just convicted of 34 felonies,” instead of saying, “My opponent is a crook!” Trump can suggest Biden’s age is an issue, but should refrain from calling him, “Sleepy Joe” as he does at campaign rallies. It’s about nuance.

 

“Trump Delivery” – The ex-president needs to focus on selling points on issues that matter to large segments of voters. Trump needs to talk about lower inflation and better border enforcement during his tenure. What he should not do is spew conspiracy theories and how the 2020 election was “stolen,” nor should he try to defend calling people to the Capitol on January 6th. He has plenty of things he can take credit for. He can remind pro-life voters he appointed three Supreme Court justices, who helped overturn legal abortion.

 

“Biden Delivery” – Mr. Biden, needs to work on his delivery and practice his lines. He needs to enunciate better and not slur words. He needs to be forceful and confident as he often was in his State of the Union Address. Many people – especially in his own party - are worried about his health and fitness for another grueling term. He can also speak to the pro-choice supporters out there, that if re-elected he may have one or two more Supreme Court appointees, and that could change the balance on issues of reproductive rights.

 

“Immigration” – This, to me, is Biden’s Achilles Heel. The pictures on the nightly news at the border are far, far worse than when Trump was in office. Biden needs to underscore his recent executive orders that could help turn the tide. Time is not on his side on this issue with less than five months before Election Day.

 

“The Economy” – In Trump’s first year in office inflation was 2.13 percent. In his second year, it was 2.44 but dropped to 1.81 percent in his third year. In his final year in office, it dropped to 1.22 percent. He can brag about that. In Biden’s first year in office, it more than doubled to 4.7 percent. It hit 8.00 percent in his second year but dipped to 3.2 percent in time for the 2023 Christmas shopping season.  If it’s trending in the right direction, he needs to claim that. It’s important that each man tries to create visual images, versus mere statistics. It’s one thing to say, “Inflation is four percent.” It’s a whole other impression to say, “Prices at the pump and grocery store have skyrocketed.”

“So, Who is Winning? And Does Momentum Matter?” – The Real Clear Politics composite poll of all polls taken over the past year has the race 46 percent for Trump to 45 percent for Biden. The other nine percent are either undecided or supporting a third-party candidate. The key in this debate is trying to sway some of the undecideds into your camp.

 

“Swing State Showdown” – The election is likely to come down to which candidate wins the most of the ten key swing states. This year they are in Pennsylvania, Ohio. Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Virginia, and Minnesota. Most are close, but there are some shockers. A new Des Moines Register Poll has Trump at 50 percent to just 32 percent for Biden and dropping. That’s an 18-point spread, in a state Trump won in 2020 against Biden 53 to 45 percent. There is clearly major dissatisfaction with Biden in the Hawkeye State.

 

“On the Other Hand” – A new NPR/PBS News-Marist College Poll out this week has Trump and Biden tied at 49 percent each. And it appears Bobby Kennedy Jr. is fading, mostly because he is not on the ballot yet in most states. He has qualified for ballot access in just 17 states. You can’t win, or even be a spoiler, without being on the ballot in all 50.

 

“For the Ages” – For all the concerns about Biden’s age and health, he is polling well within a certain demographic: seniors! A recent Wall Street Journal poll had Trump dropping to 46 percent support among seniors, even though he carried that group in 2020 with 51 percent of their votes. With an 81-year-old candidate, the Biden campaign has been doing aggressive senior outreach in all the swing states and it appears to be paying off for now. By the way, Republicans have carried the senior vote in every election since 2000.

 

“Behind the Scenes” – I’ve spoken with several Democrats in recent months, who are very concerned about President Biden’s chances in November. Then there are those who talk about either replacing Biden as the nominee over Kamala Harris as VP. Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker even opined about replacing Harris, with Hillary Clinton in the number two spot. Parker wrote, "At 76, she (Clinton) might want no part of it, but it’s hard to retire when you feel your job isn’t done" Parker argued that Clinton is one of the few leaders in the Democratic Party who has enough respect to be a serious contender to replace Harris. She says Clinton has “relative centrism” when compared to Harris. Politics can make for strange bedfellows!