The Politics Flip-Flopped – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - August 4, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
The Politics Flip-Flopped – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - August 4, 2024
“Harris VP Pick Comes this Week” – No one has been more vocal on the national stage about restoring women’s reproductive choice than Kamala Harris. It’s her signature issue and one of the main reasons why she has raised more than $300 million in two weeks as the lead on the ticket. Her running mate pick matters. Here are some clues: a) Gov. Roy Cooper (D) North Carolina has dropped out; b) VP Harris has scheduled a campaign event in Philadelphia this week to announce her pick. I can’t imagine she’d go to the Keystone State to announce she’s selected Gov. Andy Beshear (D) Kentucky. I’m certain Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) Pennsylvania is the pick. Harris needs to win Pennsylvania to win the White House. So, too, does Trump!
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“Do the Math; Show Your Work” – I grew up and was educated in the Catholic school system. The nuns and priests were relentless. It wasn’t enough to have the correct answer, we also had to do our mathematical steps and show the work and logic that brought us to that correct answer. They were tough, but the lessons were golden. I work to apply those same standards to my political analysis. I’ve always said, “Politics is as much about the math, as it is about the ideology.” In other words, you can have the BEST idea in Congress, but if you DON’T have the votes, it won’t pass.
“A Theoretical Case in Point: What if Biden Won a Second Term?” – It’s theoretical since Biden has already dropped out. But let’s assume President Biden won a second and final term. The two most senior justices on the U.S. Supreme Court are Associate Justice Clarence Thomas, age 76, and Associate Justice Samuel Alito, age 74. Neither would resign during a second Biden term, and the only way to replace them would be for them to die in office.
“What if Trump Wins?” – Well, he will be a lame duck from day one, and I’d think he’d want an assessment of their health and whether they intended to stay. Thomas and Alito could also signal to the White House through back channels that they may be thinking about retirement. The point is all three men want to preserve the conservative majority and their retirements would let Trump appoint some much younger justices who might be on the bench for decades.
“What if Harris Wins?” – My guess is both Thomas and Alito would dig in their heels and stay during the first Harris term. At the end of that term, Thomas would be 80 and Alito 78, and the chances of them leaving by retirement or death only heightens. If both men left and Harris was able to get two liberal justices confirmed, the Democrats would have a 5-to-4 majority. A lot could be changed, including overturning the Roe v. Wade reversal. It’s not out of the question. I think about how both Ronald Reagan and Trump were able to get three appointees, and how much that changed the face of the court. Additionally, a president gets to appoint a lot of District Court judges and judges to the District Courts of Appeal, so the imprint is farther reaching than the Supreme Court alone.
“The U.S. Senate Balance Looms” – All of these scenarios are heavily dependent on who controls the U.S. Senate, which has sole authority on judicial appointments. Right now, Democrats have 47 seats, plus the four independents who caucus with them, for a total of 51 votes. Republicans have 49 members, so the margin is close, and control of the body is a toss-up. Republicans will most likely win the seat now held by U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin (I) West Virginia. That would tie the body at 50-50, but the GOP would have the majority in a tiebreaker vote if Sen. J.D. Vance (R) Ohio, becomes Vice President (which means he’s the Senate President). If Kamala Harris becomes U.S. President, her VP would be the tiebreaker in the Senate. It’s tight!
“Biden Court Reforms” – All of this Supreme Court discussion is framed in the context of major changes proposed by President Joe Biden this week. First off, the president is proposing an 18-year term limit for U.S. Supreme Court Justices. In truth, I don’t think either party really wants to give up the footprint of a lifetime appointment. In contemporary times, Justice Clarence Thomas has been on the high court for nearly 33 years. But iconic justices such as William O. Douglas served 36-plus years, Hugo Black 34-years, William Brennan 33-plus years, and John Paul Stevens 34-plus years. Black and Douglass were appointed by Democrat President Franklin Roosevelt, while Justice Brennan was appointed by Republican President Dwight Eisenhower, and Justice Stevens by President Gerald Ford. My point is neither party wants to give up that footprint and impact of such longevity. I predict nothing here will change!
“What Say the Polls?” – Kamala Harris has gained some traction, momentum, and donations. The last Real Clear Politics Composite Poll with Biden in the race, had Trump with a 3.1 percentage point lead. Now, Trump is up on Harris by only 1.2 percentage points, so she has clearly closed the gap. Here in Florida, Trump has a 7-point lead over Harris in a new University of North Florida Poll. He carried Florida in 2016 by just 1.2 percent, and 2020 by 3.3 percent. He appears on a path to another win in 2024. The key race in Florida is for U.S. Senate, and it’s tightening. Current Sen. Rick Scott (R) Florida leads his challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) Florida by only four percentage points, 47 to 43 percent. Ten percent remain undecided. The GOP needs Scott to win reelection to have any realistic chance at a Senate majority.
“Truth is the First Casualty in Politics” – On Wednesday, the Harris campaign went on X to say, “Breaking: Due to the plummeting of Donald Trump’s poll numbers, many on the Trump campaign are panicking and are now considering dumping JD Vance off the ticket.” FALSE: As noted above, the polls are tightening, but “plummeting” is inaccurate. Also on Wednesday, Trump spoke at the National Association of Black Journalists convention. He addressed Kamala Harris’s race. Trump said, “She was always of Indian heritage, and she was only promoting Indian heritage. I did not know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black.” FALSE: Harris’s multi-racial background has been well documented since I covered her first race for District Attorney in San Francisco in 2003. Her dad was Black; her mom was Indian. Period! It made banner headlines when she was nominated for VP in 2020.
“The Wildcard Issue” – The unrest in the Mideast could have an impact on the White House race and Congressional races. This past week, Hezbollah launched an attack against Israelis in the Golan Heights. Tuesday, Israel fired a missile into Beirut, Lebanon, targeting a Hezbollah, terrorist leader, it felt was responsible for the attack on the Golan Heights. Wednesday, a Hamas leader was killed in Iran, presumably by Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a close relationship with former President Trump, but a frosty, strained relationship with the Biden-Harris team. Jewish voters in the U.S. have considerable influence, and that could be a key factor in a lot of very close races. It’s something to keep an eye on.