President Biden Faces Battle Fatigue – “The Sunday Political Brunch” July 14, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
President Biden Faces Battle Fatigue – “The Sunday Political Brunch” July 14, 2024
LATE ADDITION AFTER THE SHOOTING: "I turned 65 years old this year. I was 4-and-a-half when President John F. Kennedy was assassinated. Even at that young age, it is still seared in my memory as if it was yesterday. I was nine when Martin Luther King, Jr., and Robert F. Kennedy were murdered. As a teenager, I well remember the two assassination attempts against President Gerald Ford. And I was a senior in college when President Reagan nearly died after being shot. I don't care about anyone's political stripes. Violence of any kind, like we saw against these citizens, and former President Donald Trump on Saturday is simply unacceptable. Political races need to be settled peacefully, at the ballot box, and without bloodshed. It is why this nation has stood strong for 248 years and will stand strong as far as the eye can see and our minds can dream!"
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“NATO News Conference” – Representatives of 32 nations gathered in Washington, DC, this week for a 3-day NATO summit. Towards the end of the event, President Biden was introducing the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, but introduced him as “President Putin,” then awkwardly corrected himself. Ouch! Hours later, President Biden held a much-anticipated news conference for approximately one hour (though he was an hour late starting). Very early on, he referred to Vice President Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump.” Ouch again! He coughed a few times, and his voice was hoarse at times, but on balance, it was a much better showing than his debate and last week’s ABC interview. But the misnaming of Zelensky and Harris were the two most talked-about items in the post-news conference analysis.
“He Insists He’s in for the Long Haul” – “I’ve got to finish this job. I’ve got to finish this job because there is so much at stake!” Biden said defiantly, after he was repeatedly asked if he might drop out. He said he’s held about 20 public events since the bad debate two weeks ago, trying to show supporters he’s still vibrant. Biden said, “I’m determined on running. It’s important I allay fears, by them seeing me out there.” Biden spoke in great detail about relations with China, Russia, and the Israel-Hamas War, so his grasp of the issues remains. Though I believe he will eventually depart due to major donors and party leaders pressing him to do so, it won’t happen tomorrow. But I predict support will continue to erode over time.
“Polls Continue Going South” – The latest ABC News-Washington Post-Ipsos Poll is not good news for Biden. 67 percent of people responding to the poll say Biden should withdraw from the race, including 54 percent of Democrats. This comes two weeks after his disastrous debate with former President Donald Trump, and a week after a less than convincing interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. 85 percent think Biden (age 81) is too old to hold the office, but only 60 percent think Trump (age 78), is too old. Despite these numbers, Trump only leads the race by one percentage point, 47 to 46 percent.
“President Harris?” – The big surprise in the ABC poll, was that if Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the nominee, she might beat Trump. The poll has her leading the ex-president 49 to 46 percent. This makes me wonder if this information might sway Biden to just drop out of the race, or might he choose to resign for health reasons? Having Harris run as the sitting president, rather than as vice president may strengthen her position as the nominee.
“Holding the Party Together?” – As of press time, 19 members of the U.S. House and just one member of the U.S. Senate have called on Biden to relinquish the nomination. While that may not seem like many, some of the names are nearing the top of party leadership. For example, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) New York, is also ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee. Rep. Adam Smith (D) Washington is ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee. And Rep. Jim Himes (D) Connecticut is the rank ing member of the House Intelligence Committee. That’s getting about as close as you can get to the party’s hierarchy. They carry influence. On Thursday House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries met with Biden. Various sources say he did not reaffirm his endorsement of the president, nor did he rescind it. He was there to express the concerns of his caucus.
“Manchin Calls for Patience” – Sen. Joe Manchin (I) West Virginia, has often been a thorn in Biden’s side, but this week he cautioned against a rush to judgment. "For everyone to start calling for the end of whatever, is wrong I think, basically. Right now, we should be looking at how this unfolds this week. We're coming back, the first time for ten days, and Senators are in tough reelections. They're up in their cycle. We'll see what they have to say," Manchin said when pressed on whether he still supported Biden. The former Democrat is right on one point. A politically wounded Biden could cause some Democrat members of Congress to lose seats in close races.
“The First Senator Bolts” – Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D) New York, has kept his caucus from cracking for almost two weeks since the CNN debate. However, Sen. Peter Welch (D) Vermont is the first to bolt. Welch said, “The stakes could not be higher. We cannot unsee President Biden’s disastrous debate performance. We cannot ignore or dismiss the valid questions raised since that night.” How many more may follow, especially those in tight races? Schumer did send out a fundraising email this week, asking people to donate to Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio, who remains in a tight reelection bid. Schumer said, “Here’s why I’m so worried about this race: Experts are calling Sherrod one of the most vulnerable senators on the ballot, and national Republicans smell blood.”
“And it Could Get Worse” – As mentioned, Sen. Brown of Ohio is in the political fight of his life. At the same time, former President Trump says his short list is down to three names for a possible running mate. That list includes Sen. J.D. Vance (R) Ohio. If Trump picks him, the ex-president will likely win the crucial battleground state of Ohio. That could also propel Ohio Republican Senate nominee Bernie Moreno to victory over Sen. Brown. It also helps Gov. Jim Justice in his Senate bid from neighboring West Virginia. Convention delegate and Republican National Committeewoman Beth Bloch said, "And J.D. Vance would be a very smart choice for President Trump. He has a real connection with, certainly, our region, being so close to us in West Virginia.” If Justice and Moreno both win their races, the GOP will likely control the U.S. Senate. The Republican National Convention is in Milwaukee this week, where the VP could be announced. The other finalists are Sen. Marco Rubio (R) Florida and Gov. Doug Burgum (R) Nebraska.