Down to the Wire in Campaign 24 – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - October 27, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Down to the Wire in Campaign 24 – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - October 27, 2024
“From Adolph to Arnold” – The past week featured just bizarre comments and alleged comments by former President Donald Trump. For unexplained reasons, he spoke of the reported size of golfing legend Arnold Palmer’s genitals. “When he took the showers with other pros, they came out of there. They said, ‘Oh my God. That’s unbelievable,’” Trump said with a laugh. “I had to say. We have women that are highly sophisticated here, but they used to look at Arnold as a man.” Then, former White House Chief of Staff John Kelly told the New York Times that Trump had praise for Adolph Hitler. “He commented more than once that, ‘You know, Hitler did some good things, too,’” Kelly said he would usually stop the conversation by saying “nothing (Hitler) did, you could argue, was good,” but that Trump would still argue the point anyway.
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“Why at the 11th Hour?” – The Trump campaign vehemently denied the Hitler story as published by the New York Times and the Atlantic. I mean why would you want this to come out less than two weeks before the election unless it was strictly “agenda-based journalism” by the media outlets? Trump’s support is entrenched as the needle of public opinion has not moved against him. But in a razor-thin race, the slightest blip could influence key votes at the eleventh hour. But I maintain the Trump base is rigid, and so this is likely only influenced by the still undecided voters. It could be a turning point, but my guess is, “It’s a too little, too late scenario.” Trump’s defenders also point out he has a Jewish son-in-law in Jared Kushner, and Trump has strong support from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in its strife with Hamas. So why would he be touting Hitler?
“Hitler’s ONLY Good Idea” – I address this issue with the utmost abhorrence, as he was probably the WORST human being to ever inhabit Planet Earth for killing millions of innocent Jews in an attempt to rid them from Earth. But in fighting Hitler, then General Dwight D. Eisenhower noticed a Hitler creation known as the Autobahn Highways System. The evil Hitler built it as a way to move weapons, missiles, and troops quickly across Europe so he could seize the entire continent. Eisenhower was impressed. After winning the war and getting elected president in 1952 and 1956, Eisenhower pioneered the Federal Highway Aid Act of 1956. The idea was not designed to get us to beach vacations faster but rather to quickly mobilize our national defense in a crisis. The U.S. Interstate Highway System was brilliant and perhaps the most enduring and consequential policy from the Eisenhower presidency. Maybe some will call Eisenhower a “plagiarist” for steeling Hitler’s idea, but I am among many who call “Ike” a hero for being a copycat, albeit for noble reasons.
“So Where Are the Polls This Week?” – First of all, the above two stories are too fresh to be reflected in any polling yet. Give it about five more days before we see a spike in either direction, if any. In the latest Real Clear Politics Composite Poll, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 48.8 percent to 48.5 percent, a .3 percent paper-thin lead in the popular vote, within the margin of error. It’s a coin flip! Trump continues to inch up, albeit slightly, in the poll of Electoral College votes in the seven battleground states. Two weeks ago, his lead was .1 percent, and it went up slightly to .4 percent last week, and this week, he now leads at .9 percent. He leads in all seven battleground states, by the following margins: Wisconsin and Michigan 0.2 %; Pennsylvania 0.6%; Nevada 0.7%; North Carolina 0.8%; Arizona 1.5%; and Georgia 2.2%. Yes, they are all thin, but all have grown for Trump over the past three weeks. That’s a trend. The Harris camp must be concerned.
“Who is More Exhausted?” – Another odd debate is about whether either side is physically or mentally flaming out. Former President Barack Obama campaigned for Harris at two rallies, and Trump, age 78, thought Obama, age 63, looked weary and tired with Trump saying, “I’m glad they’re bringing him out. The reason they’re bringing him out – because he doesn’t even want to do it. I think he’s exhausted,” Trump said. Trump added, “I watched him talking. I think the guy’s exhausted.” Well, for one, Obama’s just a surrogate. He’s not the nominee. Obama, for his part, fired back at Trump, saying he “looked exhausted.” And the Democrats noted Trump had canceled recent campaign appearances with former rival-turned-endorser, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) Hawaii. The only thing I will say is the “exhaustion debate” has left me exhausted. Could we debate some serious issues here? Inflation? Immigration? The Mideast?
“Is Election Day November 5th Overrated?” – Call me a dinosaur, but I was not an early adopter of early voting. I liked the ritual of getting up on Election Day and voting in person at my precinct at 6 am and then treating myself to breakfast afterward. It was Americana to me. So, when early voting arrived, I pushed back. My logic was, “What if my candidate X does or says something wacky on the Sunday before? I want the option to switch votes at the last minute.” I think those days are gone. As of this past Thursday, more than 23 million Americans (including me) have already voted. I say this because for many, many people, issues like the above-mentioned Arnold Palmer and Adolph Hitler sideshows are rendered moot by a lot of people who’ve already voted. I was always disappointed when we only achieved 40 percent voter turnout, even in a presidential year. Now with early voting, including two Saturdays of early voting, as in my current state of residence in West Virginia, we have more people participating.
“What About Absentee Ballots?” – In close elections, the results often come down to the hand count of absentee ballots in the week after Election Day. Now there is an interesting legal challenge that could affect that. Mississippi accepts ballots that are delivered up to five business days after an election, so long as they are postmarked on or before Election Day.
The Republican National Committee argues that this "effectively extends Mississippi's federal election past the Election Day established by Congress " and results in valid ballots being "diluted by untimely, invalid ballots." Republicans are challenging rules on absentee ballots in a number of southern states because absentee voters are more likely to vote Democrat. I disagree. When I lived in Florida, absentee ballots skewed heavily Republican because so many of them were military ballots from people deployed. I don’t believe a ruling in this case will affect the 2024 election but could affect other elections down the road. Let’s await the court decision, which will likely be appealed and end up at the U.S. Supreme Court a couple of years from now.