Looking for Campaign Traction – “The Sunday Political Brunch” September 22, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Looking for Campaign Traction – “The Sunday Political Brunch” September 22, 2024
“Close Polls” – The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll of all recent polling has the race 48 percent for Vice President Kamala Harris and 46.4 percent for former President Donald Trump. That is a thin, 1.6-point lead. Key state polls include Pennsylvania, where Harris is up by just .6 percent; Wisconsin, where Harris leads by 1 percent; Georgia where Trump leads by 3 points; and Arizona where Trump is up 1.3 percent. All this is important now because, by the end of this week, people in 26 states will be receiving absentee ballots, so voting is underway!
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“But That’s the Popular Vote!” – And that is the correct response. This race is really about the Electoral College. In 2000 and 2016, the candidate who won the popular vote did not get enough Electoral College votes to win the White House. Right now, there is a consensus among pollsters and pundits (including me), that Harris is leading or leaning in enough states to have 226 Electoral College votes. Trump is leading or leaning in enough states for 219 Electoral Votes.
“Take it Down to Battleground!” – Here are the seven battleground states that will decide this race and their corresponding number of Electoral Votes: Nevada (6); Arizona (11); Georgia (16); North Carolina (16); Pennsylvania (19); Michigan (15); and Wisconsin (10). I predict Trump will win four of these states: Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. I predict Harris will win three of these states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That puts the Electoral College at 270 for Harris and 268 for Trump, “and Harris is President.”
“But There’s an Oddity this Year!” – In 48 states, it is winner-take-all when it comes to Electoral College votes. Two states, Nebraska and Maine, award Electoral College votes based on who wins in each Congressional district. While Trump is anticipated to carry four Electoral votes in Nebraska, there is one urban district which includes Omaha, and leans blue. Right now, many predictions have Harris winning that, but if Trump captures that swing district, it will tie the Electoral College at 269 votes for each! In a tie, the U.S. House of Representatives would decide the outcome.
“Republicans Hold the House; Big Advantage?” – This is where it gets dicey. While the 12th Amendment to the Constitution provides that the House decides, it is the newly elected House members that meet in January. Right now, Republicans have a slim, nine-vote lead and control the House. So, if Democrats flip ten seats, which is quite doable, they will control the new House in January and could tip the race to Harris. This is quite intriguing and very possible. By the way, the House has only decided two presidential races in American history, and they were Thomas Jefferson in 1800 and John Quincy Adams in 1824.
“The Air War” – Without the prospect of any more presidential debates, the only excitement might come in the lone vice-presidential debate on October 1. What I think we will really see is the saturation bombing of the airwaves like we’ve never seen before. Harris has a war chest of $400 million, while Trump lags a bit behind at $300 million. That’s a lot of money for national ad campaigns on multiple networks, plus huge ad buys on local TV and radio stations in the key battleground states.
“Turn Down the Rhetoric” – This was the plea from both parties last week after the second assassination plot against former President Trump in two months. I disagree with the premise, though. There is harsh language and tone in every campaign, but it does not usually lead to violence. These failed assassins appear to be lone wolves with no political agenda. The young man who shot Trump in Pennsylvania was actually a Republican, and the sniper on Trump’s golf course in Florida was upset about the Ukraine War, which only took place during the Biden administration.
“A Concerning Pattern?" - The only thing the two events have in common is the failure of the Secret Service protection. In Pennsylvania, it was on a nearby roof where the sniper lay in plain sight but went undetected. He even used a drone to surveil the area earlier in the day, but it raised no eyebrows. In Florida, the would-be assassin camped out in the bushes for 12 hours, before Secret Service agents saw the barrel of his rifle and fired upon him and later captured him. This is inexcusable. Congress needs to hold more hearings on the Secret Service and make necessary changes.
“The Weird New Warfare” – I was both fascinated and mortified by the two incidents in Lebanon in the past week where people were blown up with their own pocket pagers and walkie-talkies. Yes, a good many of them were Hezbollah terrorists, but many innocent civilians were killed or injured as well. I worry about retaliation against Israel, and by extension its allies, including the United States. Terrorists will not care if there was complicity or not. Both presidential campaigns need to address how they will handle possible retaliation.
“Empty Endorsements” – Celebrity endorsements get a lot of media buzz, but I do not think they ever amount to much influence. Last week the world was abuzz with Taylor Swift endorsing Harris. This week, domestic maven Martha Stewart was throwing her support on Harris. Then, the “Scientific American” magazine endorsed Harris. This is only the second time the magazine made a presidential endorsement in 179 years of publication. The Teamsters Union, whose president spoke at the Republican National Convention, declined to endorse either Trump or Harris. We’ll see a lot more endorsements in the coming weeks, and probably a lot of yawns, too!