Debating the Debate Preps – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - September 8, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Debating the Debate Preps – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - September 8, 2024
“Debate Strategy” – Basically, by all accounts, the race is dead even in the national popular vote, and they are splitting hairs in the Electoral College for the votes that really matter. There are a number of toss-ups in the seven battleground states, so this is anyone’s race. They need to strategize their debate plans knowing that. It’s a tightrope to walk.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST
“What Trump Needs to Do” – He needs to be more positive. He needs to talk about the perceived benefits of his first term in office. He needs to brag about lower inflation, unemployment, and the benefits of tax cuts. He should compare statistics. What he should not do is make it personal. This week he called Kamala Harris “dumb” in a number of speeches. That’s mean-spirited and personal. Trump’s critics have often painted him as sexist. If he talks down to Harris or is condescending to his female opponent in the debate, that could prove a key negative to moderate, suburban women voters who are a key toss-up group this year. His better route is to portray her as incompetent. She was put in charge of fixing the Southern Border and look at the results.
“What Harris Needs to Do” – She needs to argue that the economy is going in a positive direction, as inflation has dropped from 9 percent to 2.6 percent. She needs to find some prominent cases she prosecuted as California Attorney General at the Southern Border. She claims she attacked the drug cartels, well then, she should talk about specific cases and prosecutions. She also needs to underscore that Trump was convicted of 34 felonies, but not make it a personal attack. As a lawyer, she needs to frame it as “a jury of his peers listened to the evidence, and it decided.” I don’t see any benefit in terms of attacking his private, personal life, because it will just open the doors for him to criticize hers.
“What Say the Polls?” – The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has Harris leading with 48.3 percent of the vote to 46.5 for Trump. That is a slight 1.8 percent advantage. When you look at the seven key battleground states, the picture is even more stark. The headline is that Trump and Harris are tied at 47.2 percent in Pennsylvania, the state that I predict will decide the outcome of this race. Meanwhile, Trump leads in Arizona by 1 percent and in North Carolina by 0.7 percent. Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin by 1.4 percent and Michigan by 1.1 percent, as well as Nevada by 0.6 percent and Georgia by 0.1 percent. It’s a nailbiter and this debate could be a make-or-break event.
“The Party Crashers” – Last week, I wrote about some Democrats who spoke at the Republican National Convention and some Republicans who were endorsing Harris-Walz at the DNC. Now the plot thickens. Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R), Wyoming and a Trump nemesis while in Congress, has come out swinging with an endorsement of Democrat Harris. And former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) Hawaii, who ran against Harris for the Democratic nomination in 2020, has endorsed Republican Trump. She’s even the “Harris stand-in” for his debate preps. It’s fun for chatter, but I think it’s a neutralizing standoff. Neither was a very influential officeholder. On the contrary, late Friday former Vice President Dick Cheney (Liz’s father), announced that he, too, was voting for Harris. Of course, Cheney left office in 2009. A lot of older voters who supported him back then are dead, and most voters under age 35 today, probably have little recollection of his time in politics. I don’t think his endorsement will be that influential. We’ll see!
“Veep Peep, Beep-Beep?” – A fascinating poll says the vice-presidential running mate is of little influence with youth voters. A study by Generation Labs, says 48 percent of voters, 34 and younger, say they are not swayed by Harris’s choice of Gov. Tim Walz (D) Minnesota. And 54 percent of Republican voters say they are not influenced by Trump’s pick of Sen JD Vance (R) Ohio as his VP. This is interesting because the poll was conducted in just the seven key battleground states. As I have pointed out, both VP nominees were picked as geographic choices to help win states in the upper Midwest rust-belt states. That’s where this race will be won. Biden-Harris won the youth voters in 2020, but if they don’t show up in these states again, Trump will win.
“The Hunter Biden Factor” – The president’s son chose to change his plea from not guilty to guilty in a federal tax evasion case. What’s the political impact? Probably zero. His dad is no longer the nominee and is a lame-duck president. Unless someone can clearly show – with two months until Election Day – that Hunter benefited financially from his dad’s role as VP and president - then this issue is off the table. Yes, it’s been embarrassing to the Biden family, but hurts the Harris-Walz ticket by a margin of zero.
“On the Other Hand” – Former President Trump got a potentially huge boost on Friday when a judge decided to delay his sentencing for his hush money convictions. Trump argued that sentencing him on September 18th would amount to election interference, just seven weeks before people vote. In his delay order Judge Juan Merchan said that he was postponing the sentencing “to avoid any appearance - however unwarranted - that the proceeding has been affected by or seeks to affect the approaching presidential election in which the Defendant is a candidate.” The judge added, “The Court is a fair, impartial, and apolitical institution.” The new sentencing day is November 26th.
“Gov. Walz and COVID-19” – Could there be an explosive COVID-19 issue at the eleventh hour? A Minnesota-based nonprofit, Feeding Our Future, is accused of misusing $250 million of taxpayer dollars from a COVID-19 relief fund intended to feed children in need. The House Committee wants to know the old Watergate cliche, “When did he know, and what did he do about it.” Congress wants a proper accounting of the funds. "As the chief executive and the highest-ranking official in the state of Minnesota, you are responsible for the MDE (Minnesota Department of Education) and its administration of (federal child nutrition programs)," said Rep. Vivian Foxx (R) North Carolina who chairs the House Education Committee. Red meat or red herring? We shall see.