Will Harris Momentum Turn to “Slow-mentum?” - The Sunday Political Brunch August 25, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Will Harris Momentum Turn to “Slow-mentum?” - The Sunday Political Brunch August 25, 2024
“Biden Passes the Torch” – If Kamala Harris ultimately wins the White House, the departure of Joe Biden may go down as one of the most selfless acts in the history of American politics. In my heart of hearts, I believe he really wanted to stay in the race, but he realized (after some high-level prompting), that he could not win. Many of those same forces persuaded him that Harris could win, so for the good of his party, he stepped aside. After 36 years in the U.S. Senate, and then 12 years in the White House, he learned something about being a political tactician. "I love the job, but I love my country more," Biden said toward the end of his remarks. You got the sense he knew Democrats would lose had he stayed on the ticket. In Harris, he saw a fighting chance that few else did initially.
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“Kamala’s Speech” – By their very nature, the DNC and RNC are echo chambers and pep rallies. Yes, they are exciting at the moment, but can candidates hold the momentum? A poll from Survey USA shows that after the first three days of the DNC, Harris is now leading Donald Trump in swing state North Carolina, 46 to 45 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Trump once led Biden there by 7 points. In her acceptance speech Thursday night, Harris saw opportunity saying, “It is now our turn to do what generations before us have done, guided by optimism and faith to fight for this country we love.”
“The Trump Retorts” – Former President Trump was quick to attack Harris’s economic agenda on social media and in various interviews. He said, “She wants to raise the taxes on corporations. What they’re going to do is pick up and move to another country,” Trump added, “They’re international companies. If she raises taxes like she wants to do on companies, there goes those jobs. I’m more interested in the jobs than the companies.” As for debates, Trump says he will participate in the ABC debate on September 10 but challenged Harris to debate on Fox News on September 6.
“The Kennedy Factor” – On Friday, former independent candidate (and former Democrat) Robert F. “Bobby” Kennedy, Junior dropped out of the race. Over the past year Kennedy, on average, has been polling about five percent nationally. As I have written about before, he is well-liked by certain constituencies on both ends of the political spectrum. Many liberal-Democrats love his tough environmental record, while many conservative Republicans cheered his hard-right stands against vaccination policies. Where his voters go could be crucial especially in the closest swing states, where Trump and Harris are tied. Those states include Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia – all of which supported Biden-Harris in 2020.
“Milwaukee Momentum” – It was the cleverest political convention stunt I have ever seen. I have watched every political nominating convention since 1964 and covered ten of them in person. It is always a site to behold, but what Democrats pulled off Tuesday night was epic. While the convention continued in Chicago, Harris and running mate Gov. Tim Walz (D) Minnesota, took off for a jam-packed rally a the very same convention center Team Trump packed in Milwaukee just weeks ago. The split screen of the two cheering mobs was compelling, especially since Wisconsin is one of the top swing states in-play this year. Trump won the Badger State in 2016, while Biden took it back in 2020. Whoever came up with this idea was brilliant!
“Tim Walz” -- I am not endorsing or condemning any of Gov. Tim Walz’s political positions, but on a base level he sure seems like a nice guy. Maybe it’s our shared Midwestern roots, as I grew up in neighboring Wisconsin. Walz grew up in a town in Nebraska of 400 people, with just 24 of them in his high school class. Walz said, “Growing up in a small town like that, you learn how to take care of each other. That family down the road, they may not think like you do. They may not pray like you do. They may not love like you do. But they’re your neighbors, and you look out for them, and they look out for you.” He just seems so genuine, not cut from the DC loincloth.
“Republicans for Harris” – Every political cycle has its defectors. Usually, it makes lots of headlines but is of little consequence. I remember Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) Connecticut endorsing Sen. John McCain (R) Arizona for president in 2008, over fellow Democrat Barack Obama. It didn’t payoff, as Obama won big anyway. This year Trump nemesis and former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) Illinois endorsed Harris-Walz saying, "Donald Trump threatens the future of America.” And former Trump Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham did the same. Grisham was incensed at Trump’s actions on January 6, 2021, and resigned that day. "I love my country more than my party," she said. On Election Day, exit polling may tell us how many defectors there were.
“Restoration PAC” -- As I’ve been predicting the attacks ads against Harris would target her role of being put in charge of securing the Southern Border. During the DNC, Restoration PAC, a conservative group based in Illinois, launched a blister attack ad that aired during some commercial breaks in the convention coverage. The spot includes a news clip of Harris in September of 2022 saying, “We have a secure border.” And then the announcer weighs in saying, “Kamala Harris was, and is, a complete failure at her job.” The imagery of people breaching the border is scattered throughout the one-minute ad.
“Abortion Next Rounds” – Abortion continues to be a key issue in the presidential race. Eleven states will be holding ballot initiatives in November, to determine the legality of abortion rights. They are Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota. Three are battleground states: Arizona, Florida, and Nevada. Trump has a dwindling lead in Florida, and the two nominees are deadlocked in Arizona and Nevada. Abortion has been a bigger turnout driver for Democrats since Roe was overturned. Another state where abortion is crucial is Montana where the two U.S. Senate candidates are tied. Control of the Senate may rest with this seat, and the abortion issue.