A Political Hodge-Podge Three Weeks Out! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - October 13, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
A Political Hodge-Podge Three Weeks Out! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - October 13, 2024
“Weathering the Storm” – As we wait and watch for the damage estimates from Hurricane Milton, I can’t help but wonder about events prior to Milton’s arrival. Vice Presidential Kamala Harris reached out to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida by phone to offer federal assistance and guidance in terms of emergency response. A source told NBC News he was dodging the Democratic presidential nominee’s calls because they “seemed political.” A DeSantis aide said, “Kamala was trying to reach out, and we didn’t answer.” The aide said DeSantis had instead been in direct contact with FEMA Director Deanne Criswell.
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“A Dangerous Approach” – In my career, I have been in 22 tropical storms and hurricanes, not just in Florida, but up the East Coast including Washington, DC. We even had five tropical systems that affected New England when I lived there. It’s not anything to fool around with. There is no such thing as a Democrat hurricane or a Republican hurricane. They kill indiscriminately. Gov. DeSantis said, "I didn't know that she had called." He added. "I'm not sure who they called. They didn't call me. Their characterization of it was something that they did. It wasn't anything that anybody in my office did, in terms of saying it was political." Folks, the communication lines between the White House and all 50 state governors are pretty free, clear, and unobstructed. If anyone on either side ignored an offer to help, that could put many lives in jeopardy. Shame on anyone, on either side of the aisle, for turning this into a political one-upmanship.
“Donald and the Jets” – After two failed assassination attempts and death threats from Iran, the campaign of former President Donald Trump has requested military jets escort the Trump campaign plane and other unspecified security measures. On Friday, President Biden told reporters, “I’ve told the department to give him every single thing he needs … as he were a sitting president,” Biden added. “If it fits into that category, that’s fine.” Biden also directed the Secret Service and Department of Homeland Security to increase protective measures. Given the severity of the threats, this is a wise step. Protecting our current and former presidents should always have bipartisan support.
“The Polls: Three Weeks Out” – Nationally, things have not changed much in the Real Clear Politics Composite Poll showing Harris with a 2-percentage point lead, 49 percent to 47.2 percent. On the other hand, Trump is barely inching up his lead in the Electoral College Composite Poll of the seven battleground states. He leads Harris 48.4 percent to 48.1 percent, a .3 percent margin up from .1 percent last week. That’s a paper-thin advantage. It’s a statistical tie. As of today, Harris only leads in the battleground states of Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump is up in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and even Michigan. The edge for both candidates in all of these states is just 1.5 percent or less. It’s a race to the wire!
“Senate Scares and Scurries” – I get fundraising emails from many campaigns. As I predicted last week, I believe Senate control lies in just two states – West Virginia and Montana – which are likely to flip two seats from Democrat to Republican, thus giving GOP control of the upper chamber. That said, I get multiple fundraising pitches from Sen. Jon Tester (D) Montana. “Tim Sheehy - (R) Senate Nominee - is a rich out-of-stater who doesn’t know the first thing about Montana values. But he’s already dropped $2.5 million of his personal wealth to defeat me, and this race is too close for comfort.” Tester asks for donations of $10 or more. He’s down 5 points in the polls, in a red Trump state. He’s clearly on the bubble.
“Ohio Could Go Bye-oh!” – Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio is also locked in a competitive race with Bernie Moreno (R) Ohio Senate Nominee. The latest Washington Post Poll has Brown barely leading the race 48 percent to 47 percent for Moreno. Trump is widely anticipated to carry Ohio with VP running mate Sen. JD Vance (R) Ohio helping seal the deal. I get sometimes twice-daily fundraising emails from the Brown campaign. Senator Brown says, “Political experts are calling me one of the most vulnerable senators running for reelection, which is why Donald Trump is doubling down on Ohio by picking JD Vance as his running mate and riling up his GOP megadonors to spend record-breaking amounts to attack me on the airwaves.
They know the path to the Senate runs through Ohio.” Brown is asking for donations of $5 or more.
“An Unstable House” – No, we are not talking about a house made unstable by Hurricane Milton. We are talking about a U.S. House of Representatives that has a fragile Republican majority. Democrats need only a net gain of six seats to retake control of the House. That’s a very doable margin. Rep. Scott Perry (R) Pennsylvania has served in Congress for 12 years and is the former Chairman of the rebel House Freedom Caucus that has disrupted the Republican Party House leadership at times. Well, Scott is being challenged by former TV news anchor Janelle Stelson (D) Pennsylvania. A recent Susquehanna Poll had Stelson ahead of Perry by nine percentage points, before they held their first debate. The seat is in play and could be a gain for Democrats. The GOP is so worried about losing this seat that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) Louisiana, will campaign in the district for Perry.
“It’s the Economy, Stupid!” – The old bromide from Democrat strategist James Carville will ring true this presidential election, as it almost always does. Right now, it’s a mixed bag. The Biden-Harris White House is no doubt pleased that inflation hit a three-year low, dropping to 2.4 percent. On the other hand, unemployment claims rose by 258,000 last week, the highest spike in a year. So, Republicans will attack the White House on that. Perhaps the thing making Democrats most nervous is that gas prices have spiked by fifty cents a gallon in the past week, likely on the heels of back-to-back Gulf Coast hurricanes. But Helene and Milton are not on the ballot, so fair or unfair, the blame usually falls on the party in power. Democrats don’t need that with just over three weeks until Election Day.
“Who is Endorsing Whom?” – As my regular readers know, I don’t think much of celebrity political endorsements. Yes, they make splashy headlines, but they rarely translate to significant voting results. So, I was amused this week when I received a campaign email announcing that former Indy race car driver Danica Patrick would be the moderator for a town hall meeting in North Carolina, on behalf of Republican Vice-Presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance. While not a flat-out endorsement, the obvious is implied. Patrick also raced in NASCAR, which is huge in North Carolina, which is a swing state where the polls have tightened. We’ll see.