A “Hail Mary” Strategy with Two Weeks to Go? – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

A “Hail Mary” Strategy with Two Weeks to Go? – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

There’s an old play in football known as the “Hail Mary” pass. It usually comes near the end of a very close game, with time running low. The quarterback chucks the football into a crowd of players 40 yards down the field, hoping one of his teammates makes the winning catch. It seldom works, but occasionally pays off. We have a similar event taking place in our current political landscape. And with two weeks to go, the game is tied, so what might each nominee do? Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

 

“Trump’s ‘Hail Mary’ Pass” – I am surprised he hasn’t done something yet, but I feel it’s coming. He should heal intra-party wounds and promise to name former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to be Secretary of State. She was tough as nails on Iran at the U.N. and has the foreign policy chops. We’ve already had three female Secretaries of State, so this isn’t history-making, but it could secure some of the key suburban female voters that Trump is trying to attract and needs in swing states. Trump could also appoint former HUD Secretary Dr. Ben Carson to a key post, such as Secretary of Health and Human Services or Surgeon General. As a brilliant African American surgeon, Carson could help Trump attract key segments of the Black vote.

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“Harris’s ‘Hail Mary’ Pass” – “Harris’s ‘Hail Mary’ Pass” – Like Trump, I think Harris needs to name a few cabinet nominees before the election and be bold about it. Appealing to Hispanic voters is extremely competitive as Republicans have made strong inroads in that demographic. The current Secretary of Health and Human Services, Xavier Becerra, is a former Attorney General of California. Harris could keep him onboard by promoting him to U.S. Attorney General. Current Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg is a Navy veteran having served eight years, including tours of duty in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Could she promote him to Secretary of Defense or Secretary of Veterans Affairs? Harris needs to be outside the box in her picks if she wants to move the needle back in her favor.

 

“What they should BOTH do!” – Former President Ronald Reagan made a brilliant campaign promise in 1980, saying he would appoint the first woman to the U.S. Supreme Court. He chose Sandra Day O’Connor, who was more of a centrist and was beloved on both sides of the aisle. Since then, five more women have been appointed. Today, the court has four female justices, three of whom were appointed by Democrats and one by a Republican. If I were Trump and Harris, I would promise to appoint a woman to replace the next likely men to retire, Justice Clarence Thomas or Justice Samuel Alito. That would give the high court the first 5-4 female majority in history. You’d score a lot of political points! I’m surprised neither nominee has made that promise.

 

“Harris’s Combative Fox News Interview” – This past week Vice President Harris continued her series of one-on-one interviews with prominent journalists, including at times a combative interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier. He pressed her on what she might do differently, and why certain things did not get dome in the first three-and-a-half years of the Biden-Harris administration. “Let me be very clear. My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency.” He hit her particularly hard on immigration, including the murders of four young women, allegedly at the hands of migrants here illegally. Baier said, “You owe those families and apology.” Harris responded, “Those are tragic cases… And I can’t imagine the pain that the families of those victims have experienced.”

 

“The Polls Two Weeks Out” – For the second straight week former President Trump has increased his lead in the Real Clear Politics Electoral College poll of the seven key battleground states. Trump leads Vice President Harris 48.3 to 47.5 percent, a slight lead of .8 percent. But that is up from the .4 percent lead he had last week, and the narrow .1 percent lead Trump had the week before.

Even more significant is that Trump leads in all seven battleground states. Just a few weeks ago Harris had slight leads in four states. Now Trump’s largest lead is 1.4 percent in Arizona, and his narrowest is .1 percent in Wisconsin.

 

“What Say the Independents?” – Okay, Trump and Harris have sealed up 95.8 percent of the vote, leaving 4.2 undecided or choosing a third party. A recent Gallup Poll says that 49 percent of independents are now leaning toward Democrats, while 45 percent lean toward the Republicans. The survey was done between September 16 and 28. But in a previous poll where independents were questioned between September 3 and 15, Republicans were in the lead with 50 percent while 45 percent preferred Democrats. Independents appear to be waffling and are still able to be persuaded to switch. The support that may be “a mile wide, but only an inch deep.” Independents may indeed decide this election.

 

“Mideast Peace or Pieces?” – I have said a number of times the real “sleeper” issue in Campaign 2024 is the violence and instability in the Mideast following the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. Just days ago, Israel confirmed it had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Will this calm the tensions in the region or inflame them? President Joe Biden hopes it leads to peace, saying, "There is now the opportunity for a 'day after' in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike.” Biden added, “Yahya Sinwar was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals. That obstacle no longer exists. But much work remains before us."

 

“What Say the Nominees?” – Vice President Kamala Harris praised the taking out of the Hamas leader in Rafah. She said while campaigning in Wisconsin, “This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.” But as Newsweek reported, back in March the Biden Administration cautioned Israel against making any attacks inside Rafah, calling the city a “red line.” Well, Israel has now taken action anyway. It’s no secret that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not been pleased with what he perceives as weak support from the Biden-Harris White House. Donald Trump, who is much closer to Netanyahu, has yet to publicly comment on Israel’s killing of Sinwar. A lot of the political impact may rest on how Hamas and Iran respond. The volatile nature of all this remains in play.

 

“More Celebrity Endorsements” – This week, former Trump ally and TV personality Geraldo Rivera, came out and endorsed Kamala Harris. On X, Rivera called Trump a “sore loser” over Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 election results were stolen. Rivera said Trump stabbed “the Constitution in the back” on Jan. 6, “by inciting and unleashing the violent attack on the center of democracy, the U.S. Capitol for which he was Impeached.” Rivera, whose career has also been plagued by credibility problems, also asked President Biden to pardon Trump. So far, there have been no warm welcomes from the Harris campaign over the Geraldo endorsement. I don’t think much of celebrity endorsements. I just don’t think they matter.