Yes, the 2028 Race for the White House is On! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” November 17, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Yes, the 2028 Race for the White House is On! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” November 17, 2024
“The California Challenge” – It is widely anticipated that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California is a frontrunner for the 2028 nomination. As with Vice-President Kamala Harris, I have known Newsom for 25 years from my days covering California politics. Yes, they are both beloved in their home state, but will Newsom be viewed as too liberal as Harris was, and will that cripple him in a nationwide campaign? Harris lost all seven battleground states to Donald Trump. It’s hard to picture Newsom winning more than two if the political mood swings. That’s not enough.
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“From the Largest to the Smallest” – I’ve covered politics in California and Rhode Island, from the largest to tiniest state, and it’s fascinating to compare and contrast. I believe Commerce Secretary and former Governor Gina Raimondo (D) Rhode Island has a legitimate shot at the next nomination. There were rumors earlier this year that President Joe Biden was considering dropping VP Kamala Harris from the ticket and asking Raimondo to be his running mate. It didn’t happen, but it was a begrudging recognition that Raimondo was a rising star in national party politics. If Sen. Jack Reed (D) Rhode Island decides not to run in 2026, a successful Raimondo senate campaign could put her in the 2028 presidential race.
“Are Harris and/or Walz Viable?” – I say no. Democrats tend to be a “one-and-done” party when it comes to presidential politics. In 1992, no one was asking 1988 nominee Michael Dukakis to run again. Harris lost in a near Electoral College landslide this time and I don’t think can make the case. Gov. Tim Walz was brought in as her VP pick to help secure the “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, yet the Democrats lost all three. Walz’s resume is a challenge going forward. Nonetheless, he sure looked like he enjoyed the national stage, and I bet he runs.
“Republicans Have Their Challenges, Too!” – With Trump “termed out” as soon as he is sworn in, it means the GOP nomination is competitive, too. Vice-President Elect JD Vance does not have an automatic lock on the nomination in 2028. A lot depends on what the new administration accomplishes in the next four years. Vance is just 40 years old, so there will be questions about youth and inexperience. But he’s a Marine veteran with a hardscrabble Appalachian drug-addled family life story that was chronicled by Hollywood. Backstories and images matter.
“Florida Remains a Pivotal Beachhead” – Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida is now in his second and final term, after three terms in the U.S. House. He had a fascinating debate earlier this year with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California, in what many presumed was a precursor to the 2028 showdown. They certainly could be the two nominees, but I think it’s unwise to make that assumption now. Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) will still be a viable candidate, too.
“So Much Depends on What Happens Now” – President-Elect Trump is already making headlines with cabinet selections now. Any successor may live and die on that legacy. Trump nominated Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) Florida to be U.S. Attorney General. Gaetz is a controversial, polarizing figure, who was investigated by both the U.S. Justice Department and the House Ethics Committee. The accusations were sexual in nature, and included allegations of drug use and human trafficking. No charges were ever filed, and the ethics report remains secret, (but I bet it gets leaked). Gaetz resigned from the House Wednesday night, and since ethics complaints are only for sitting members, the investigation has ended. He won reelection on November 5th, so he could take the oath again in January, though he says he won’t. It’s not clear if that could restart a closed ethics investigation.
“The Trump Litmus Test” – There has also been controversy over other Trump cabinet nominations. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was selected for Secretary of Health and Human Services; former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) Hawaii will be put forth as head of the National Intelligence Agency; and Fox News host Pete Hegseth, a military veteran, is up for Secretary of Defense. Critics say these three, along with Gaetz, are highly unqualified for these posts. About the only one earning praise from both parties is the nomination of Cuban American Sen. Marco Rubio (R) Florida to be Secretary of State. Trump will have a 53-47 advantage in the U.S. Senate, so it will be interesting to see who stands with him and who bolts. I think he’s purposely putting forth provocative nominees to test the loyalties of each Republican senator. He believes they won control of the U.S. Senate on his coattails and he’s not wrong.
“Jumping Ship Already” – Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska and Susan Collins (R) Maine are already hard “no’s” on Gaetz. If two more Republicans bolt, that takes them to just 49 yes votes, and he’s done. I predict that happens. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) West Virginia says she’s undecided. Capito thinks Trump wants Gaetz to reform the Justice Department saying, "I'm not surprised that he has appointed somebody to shake it up the way that he would like to." But she wants more information before making any decision on endorsing or opposing Gaetz. Capito told reporters, including me, "It's a grueling process, and it's very much a vetting process. And so, I expect that we’ll be doing that, beginning in January as this process moves forward."
“The Vance Dilemma” – If any of the controversial appointees win nomination but go “off the rails” once in office, then that could hurt Vance. He’s Trump’s partner. DeSantis is not. Bad news tends to only hurt those in power at the time. And it’s possible the Trump-Vance team knows generally what is in the House Ethics report on Matt Gaetz, but again DeSantis is not likely to know. A lawyer for the then-teenaged girl who accused Gaetz, wants the report made public. Attorney John Clune said, "Mr. Gaetz's likely nomination as Attorney General is a perverse development in a truly dark series of events. We would support the House Ethics Committee immediately releasing their report. She was a high school student and there were witnesses.” Wow!
“A Biden ‘Hail Mary’ Pass?” – The weird political rumor of the week was that aides to President Joe Biden were quietly working behind the scenes to get 70-year-old Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor to resign. The concern is that if she died or resigned during a Trump term, he could nominate another conservative and make it a 7-2 high court. The idea was to get a much younger, liberal justice on the bench, while Democrats still had control of the Senate. It’s a fascinating play, but Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) Vermont was one of those who urged Sotomayor to dig in her heels and not bow to the pressure. It’s all part of the skullduggery that is Washington, DC!