Prediction: Trump to Return to the White House – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - November 3, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Prediction: Trump to Return to the White House – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - November 3, 2024
“The Numbers Then” – In the states where they are certain to win, Harris has 226 Electoral College Votes, to 219 for Trump. Here are the seven battleground states that will decide this race and their corresponding number of Electoral Votes: Nevada (6); Arizona (11); Georgia (16); North Carolina (16); Pennsylvania (19); Michigan (15); and Wisconsin (10). I predicted Trump will win four of these states: Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. I predicted Harris will win three of these states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That puts the Electoral College at 270 for Harris and 268 for Trump, “and Harris is President.”
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST
“The Numbers Now” – It’s called the “Blue Wall,” and it consists of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and my home state of Wisconsin. If Harris wins all three as I predicted five weeks ago, we’ll call her, “Madame President.” I no longer think she’ll carry all three. Perhaps, just two. My gut and my analysis of recent polls suggest Trump will win one, and I suspect it’s Pennsylvania. Last week in the Real Clear Politics Composite Poll, Trump was ahead in all seven battleground states, but this week he leads in just five. Harris has achieved a razor-thin lead, in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump is up by 0.8 percent in Pennsylvania. It appears that Trump ads attacking “Border Czar” Harris blaming her for the increase in illegal Fentanyl smuggling have struck a nerve. I predict it’s the decisive issue in the waning days of the campaign, and Pennsylvania will decide the outcome. My final count has Trump with 287 Electoral College votes, to 251 for Harris.
“What Say the Polls at the 11th Hour?” – Last week I reported on the Reel Clear Politics composite polls of all recent polls. It had Trump leading in all seven battleground states, albeit by razor-thin margins in four of them. This week, VP Kamala Harris pulled back ahead in two states – Michigan and Wisconsin – by a hair. This is tight, tight, tight, and within all polling’s margin of error. We may not know on Election Day, but I think we’ll have the results soon after, no later than Thursday, November 7th.
“The Effect of Bad Economic News” – The last thing the Harris-Walz team needed at the eleventh hour, was bad economic news. The White House had estimated that 100,000 new jobs would be added in the past month. Instead, the economy only produced 12,000 new jobs. Democrats blamed the effects of two hurricanes and major labor strikes, but bad economic news usually falls in the lap of the party in power. It can’t be discounted just days before the final vote, even though 65 million people already early voted before the bad news was delivered.
“Republicans Take the Senate” – I will stand by my prediction that the U.S. Senate will change hands. Gov. Jim Justice (R) West Virginia, will win the seat to replace Sen. Joe Manchin (I) West Virginia, who still caucuses with Senate Democrats. In Montana, I predict Sen. Jon Tester will lose to businessman and former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy. Those two seats give the GOP control of the U.S. Senate by one vote and by two votes If a tie-breaker, Sen. J.D. Vance (R) Ohio is elected Vice President. Adding to the drama, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio is on the bubble, right now leading GOP Senate nominee Bernie Moreno by just one percentage point. Moreno could increase the GOP Senate majority to 52-48 if he upsets the four-term Democrat Senator Brown. It’s very plausible. Southeast Ohio is in my coverage area and the money the Moreno team and the Trump-Vance team are spending in Ohio is staggering. I say Moreno wins, giving that 52-48 GOP Senate majority.
“The TOP U.S. Senate Race” - The Ohio race is insane. “We're getting drowned out on the airwaves – Republicans have outspent us 3-to-1, so this final ad will punch back at their attacks,” says the mass email from the Brown campaign, asking for a minimal $25 donation. As I live and work in this market, I get many, many similar pitches per day on my TV station email account, which is highly unethical, but be that as it may.” Democrats are rightly concerned this seat may flip.
“It May Get Worse” – The other close Senate race to watch is in Pennsylvania, which I don’t think will flip. Sen. Bob Casey (D) Pennsylvania is locked in a competitive race with Iraq War veteran David McCormick (R), who ran a competitive GOP primary two years ago. If Trump overperforms Harris in Pennsylvania, it could also flip this Senate seat. Casey, who is the son of a legacy politician, may be hard to unseat,
“Flipping the House” – I believe we are headed for a divided government, which is not always a bad thing. The presidential race is a coin flip, but I am solidly confident the Republicans will seize control of the U.S. Senate. On the other hand, my prediction is the Democrats will take control of the U.S. House, and only need to win a net gain of five seats to do so. They are not household names nationwide, but Reps. Brandon Williams (R) New York and John Duarte (R) California, are both in districts that President Biden won by a big margin in 2022. This year their Democrat opponents could reclaim those seats. Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) New York, won in a district that President Joe Biden won in 2020 by more than 15 percent. There are a dozen other House seats across the map that could easily flip the GOP-led House to the Democrats. Keep an eye on this!
“So, is Divided Government so Bad?’ – The clear answer is NO! Let’s just say one chamber of Congress is Republican-controlled, while the other is controlled by Democrats. Regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins the White House, there is the opportunity for joint governance. President Bill Clinton got almost nothing done when his party controlled all three corners of government from 1993 to 1997. But when Republicans seized control of the House and Senate in 1996, the divided government produced the first balanced budget in 40 years and passed the legendary Telecommunications Act of 1996 to ramp up the internet and broadband communications age. It was pioneering! The GOP advantage this time may be the pocketbook issues under the Biden-Harris economy. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) West Virginia said, “I think it’s the economy. We’ve seen inflation, cost of groceries, gas, rent, power, and all those things almost unbearable to the American families.” Polling repeatedly tells us the economy is the number one issue.