An Early Look at Trump’s Second Term – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - November 10, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
An Early Look at Trump’s Second Term – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - November 10, 2024
“My Predictions?” – Hey, I don’t think I did too bad! I picked Trump to win on the strength of his win in Pennsylvania. I picked the GOP U.S. Senate takeover, even the possibility of winning the Ohio and Pennsylvania seats, which they did! The jury is out on the final House numbers, with neither side having a majority at press time. Not bad! Maybe I’ll go buy some Lotto tickets as I’m feeling lucky! As for his legal troubles, I predict a lot of the federal issues will be dropped, and disposition of the state cases will be handled once he’s out of office. Civil judgments against him will stand, though.
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“My Biggest Concern?” -- I am worried about President-elect Trump’s safety. Two domestic assassination attempts against him this year failed, although one came within an inch of killing him. Friday, more details of an Iranian-backed assassination plot were revealed. Then, there are the failures of the Secret Service in some of these instances. Quite honestly, I would be worried about VP Harris’s safety, too, had she won. This remains deeply troubling.
“Some Supreme Choices” – Over the past year, I have written extensively about Trump’s imprint on the U.S. Supreme Court. With three young appointees who helped overturn Roe v. Wade in his first term, it’s really his longest-lasting legacy and could be for decades. Associate Justice Clarence Thomas is 76, and Associate Justice Samuel Alito is 74. Had Harris won, I predicted they would have dug in their heels and stayed until the next Republican president. Well, Harris lost, and at the same time Republicans have seized control of the U.S. Senate which has the sole authority to approve judicial nominees. I bet Thomas, Alito, or both will resign in next year to 18 months and allow Trump to replace them. They can’t risk Democrats retaking control of the Senate in 2026. This court shuffle is on the fast track now!
“Ground Zero for the Senate Takeover” – In my 48-year broadcasting career, I’ve had a penchant for being in the “right place at the right time.” Such was the case Tuesday night, when all eyes of the nation were on three of the states where I broadcast: West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. I had long predicted that Gov. Jim Justice (R), West Virginia, would replace popular Sen. Joe Manchin (I), West Virginia, who chose not to seek reelection. And in the last two weeks, I predicted that Bernie Moreno (R), Ohio, might have a last-minute surge and upset Sen Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio. Both events occurred and gave Republicans control of the U.S. Senate. Then they picked up another seat as Tim Sheehy (R) beat incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) Montana. On Thursday, the race between Sen. Bob Casey (D) Pennsylvania and David McCormick (R) was called, and McCormick won. The next Senate will have a solid 53-47 Republican majority.
“Is the Cycle 1980 All Over Again?” – As a senior in college, I was riveted to the TV on Election Night in 1980. With one of the worst economies in U.S. history and 52 American hostages being held in Iran, President Jimmy Carter was in serious trouble. In fact, Reagan won in a historic landslide, with one of the worst incumbent losses in American presidential history. But what no one predicted that night (including me), was Republicans sweeping seat after seat in the U.S. Senate, giving the GOP control for the first time in nearly 30 years. No one saw it coming back then, but many of us pundits thought something similar might happen this year. It was truly remarkable to see up close from my vantage point on Tuesday night.
“So, Who is the New Senate Majority Leader?” – As the new Republican Senate Majority moves in, a familiar face is moving out. Current Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky already announced he would retire when his current term ends, so he would not be a candidate again for the leadership position. The room is now getting crowded. Current Minority Whip Sen. John Thune (R) South Dakota, who’s been a Trump critic at times, is in the race. Sen. John Cornyn (R) Texas, a solid Trump supporter, is also in. Sen. Rick Scott (R), Florida, was just elected to a second term Tuesday night and is Trump’s home state senator. Sen. John Barrasso (R), Wyoming, won his third term Tuesday night and is a long-time Trump ally. He is the third highest-ranking GOP senator. My gut says this is a fight between Cornyn and Barrasso, and given the battle between Texas and Wyoming, Cornyn has the edge.
“Moving to Canada, Eh?” – As with every presidential election in my lifetime, there are pledges from supporters on the losing side who say, “If so-and-so wins, I’m moving to Canada.” It is especially stark when the opposing candidate is highly disliked. In 2004, when I was a reporter in San Franciso, I did a story on opponents of President George W. Bush saying they would move to Canada, Costa Rica, or elsewhere if he won a second term. By then, emigration records were easily accessible online. So, I dug back through 28 years of previous emigration records coinciding with U.S. presidential elections. In NO case, was there any significant outmigration of U.S. citizens to other nations. It didn’t happen then, and I predict it won’t happen now. I get peoples’ frustrations, but this is just blustering every four years. The more common theme among the losing side is, “We’ll beat ‘em next time!” which is more emblematic of the American spirit.
“A New Term; A New Face” – President-elect Trump has named his campaign director, Susie Wiles, as his incoming White House Chief of Staff. No woman in either party has ever held that title. She is widely credited with reining in his off-the-cuff campaign appearances with a more disciplined, “on message” approach. It worked. Trump went through four Chiefs of Staff – Reince Priebus, John Kelly, Mick Mulvaney, and Mark Meadows – in just one term, so she’ll be interesting to watch. Ms. Wiles has very little Washington, DC, experience, so I wish her well in what is a real “shark tank.” She makes history, no matter how it goes. By the way, she is the daughter of the late legendary NFL broadcaster and placekicker Pat Sumerall.
“Who’s Next?” – Just weeks ago, I predicted Trump might name his nomination rival, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina, as Secretary of State. She served him well as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations early in his first term, and that job is often a launching pad for the Secretary of State. Haley was tough as nails on Iran back then, which may prove useful now with Iran lobbing missiles at Israel.
“Why Demographics Matter” – I know that many people feel it’s distasteful when pundits break voting patterns down by gender, race, ethnicity, and orientation. Critics accuse us of trying to pit people against each other. I say, “That’s not true.” All I seek is to understand voting patterns. Each political party has strategists doing the very same thing. To me, certain trends are telling. Hispanics are now the largest minority group in America and their loyalties are often more evenly split between the two parties, than African Americans. Considering this trend: In 2016 Latino men favored Hillary Clinton by 31 percentage points. In 2020, they favored Joe Biden by 23 points. In 2024, they preferred Donald Trump by 12 points. That’s a huge sea change. Forget about Florida and Texas, where Trump won big, but this likely explains his winning margins in states such as Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Successful politics involves building a mosaic in both parties. It will be critical again in 2028.