Looking Back and Forward in This Political New Year – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Looking Back and Forward in This Political New Year – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
“The Biggest Headline of All” – Trump going back to the White House in non-consecutive terms is nearly unprecedented. The only time it happened was when President Grover Cleveland was defeated for reelection in 1888, but ran and won the presidency again in 1892. The candidates and issues are of no comparison except for one. In 1988, the Republican-led administration of President Benjamin Harrison passed large tariffs on foreign goods. By 1892, many imported items were so expensive people could not afford them, and Harrison was defeated. Fast forward to 2024, and Trump promised big tariffs on good from China, and even Mexico and Canada. This could be a huge issue again in 2026. More so for Congressional candidates as Trump is term-limited.
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“The Congressional Challenge” – As I pointed out in a recent column, the House is essentially tied at 215-215. Even though Republicans actually won 220 seats, at least five will be vacated due to Trump nominating some to be in his cabinet, and those seats will be filled by special elections. Trump may not have the votes in the House to pass tariffs, and perhaps not in the Senate either. For example, I can’t fathom moderate Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska and Susan Collins (R) Maine, voting for big tariffs on their Canadian neighbors. If there are two more “no” votes from Republican senators, the tariffs die.
“Will Florida Flop?” – Two of the House seats being vacated are former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) Florida, who was blown out of the running for U.S. Attorney General after much opposition from his own Republican Party. The other race is for the seat, which includes Daytona Beach, which is now held by Rep. Mike Waltz (R) Florida. Waltz has been nominated for National Security Advisor, with a possible bump-up to Secretary of Defense.
“Can Democrats Flip the U.S. House?” - The Gaetz seat is in the conservative Panhandle that has a heavy Navy and Air Force presence. Fifteen Republicans have filed for the special election, with just one Democrat. I lived and covered news in that district for five years. It will stay in the Republican fold. The Waltz seat is more viable with seven Republicans and three Democrats in the primary. This has been historically a more moderate seat. In a tight House majority, Democrats could possibly have a gain here, as well as in a Republican seat in moderate upstate New York. The big question is whether there will be 218 votes to keep House Speaker Mike Johnson (D) Louisiana in office.
“Speaking for Matt Gaetz” – The House Ethics Committee report was released this past week and proves quite damning. The 42-page report says there is “substantial evidence” that Gaetz violated House ethics rules, as well as state and federal law. It mentions prostitution, statutory rape, and illicit drug use among others. Gaetz has steadfastly denied all allegations, and no criminal charges have ever been filed. My bet is that he will never face trial for any of this, but that his political career is over. While I mentioned the heavy military presence in conservative West Florida, the region is also one of the most deeply religious that I have ever worked and lived in. It’s often called, “The Buckle of the Bible Belt.” I doubt voters there will ever put Gaetz in public office again.
“Pardon Me, Pardons!” – As I wrote recently, I don’t like pardons, commutations, and clemencies from any president departing the White House, Democrat or Republican. This past week President Joe Biden commuted the federal death penalty for 37 of 40 inmates facing execution. Instead, they will remain in prison for life, without the possibility of parole, so these are not pardons. I am not a fan of this and here is why. Prosecutors work hard to try these cases, and juries work diligently to bring verdicts and sentences. That’s how our system works. I think it’s a slap in the face to prosecutors, jurors, and the judges, that a president just vacates their hard work. And you wonder why people try to avoid jury duty!
“On the Other Hand” – I will at least compliment President Biden on the three cases where he did not commute the death penalty. One of the most gut-wrenching stories I have ever covered was the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013. I was two days post-surgery, and ignoring my doctor’s bed rest order, I went back to work as I was living in nearby Providence and we had a lot of Rhode Island victims. The manhunt for suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev and his brother was suspenseful and scary. I remember interviewing his mother-in-law through the mail slot of the door of her Rhode Island home. It was surreal. But most of all I remember meeting so many of his victims who lost family members or limbs. This was Terrorism 101, and should never be forgotten. I covered his trial, where the sentence was death by execution. Justice was served!
“No House of Worship Should be Violated” – The two other people Biden did not spare from execution, are Dylann Roof, who shot up the Mother Emmanuel AME Church in Charleston, South Carolina in 2015, killing nine worshipers, and Robert Bowers, who killed 11 at Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life Synagogue in 2018. The First Amendment of our Constitution guarantees freedom of religion, and the right to assemble. Places of worship and locations of major sporting events such as the Boston Marathon, and the Super Bowl are hallowed ground. It’s what our Founding Fathers intended when they added the Bill of Rights to the Constitution. Anyone who criminally and willfully causes hateful death at these protected locations should face a similar punishment.
“But What About the Other Cases?” – The three I mentioned made national headlines, but what about the other 37 victims who didn’t? On November 11, 2002, 19-year-old Samantha Burns was murdered by two men in Barboursville, West Virginia, not far from Marshall University where she was a student. The two men convicted of kidnapping and killing her had their death sentences commuted by President Biden. U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (I) West Virginia, issued a statement calling Biden’s actions, “horribly misguided and insulting” to the victim’s family. I don’t disagree. Justice is supposed to be mostly about the victims.
“Things that Will Not Happen in 2025” – On Christmas Day, President-elect Trump pondered on his Truth Social platform about the United States acquiring Canada, Greenland, and Panama. Mr. Trump even talked of Canadian Prime Minister becoming, “Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada,” and getting lower taxes and more business for his people, “if Canada was to become our 51st State.” I was born in 1959, just after Alaska was admitted to the union, but before Hawaii was admitted in August of that year. I am one of a relatively small group of Americans born in a 49-state nation. Since then, people have tried and failed to get statehood for Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. Canada is not happening either!
“No Four West Virginia Governors” – Last week, I wrote about the bizarre scenario in which West Virginia could have two regular governors and two acting governors in the span of just 13 days. On Thursday, Governor Jim Justice (R) West Virginia announced he would finish his full term as Governor on January 13th and then be sworn into the U.S. Senate later that day. Normally U.S. Senators take the oath on January 3rd, but you can’t hold both jobs at the same time. Justice said he was worried about, “the continuity of government.” Oh well, it would have been fun to watch!