One of the Wildest Political Weeks Ever! – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
One of the Wildest Political Weeks Ever! – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
“$1,000 Departure Bonus” – Will it be scoffed at, or might we be seeing the “art of the deal” when it comes to immigration reform? The Trump administration is offering free airline tickets, plus a $1,000 stipend for anyone in this country illegally, to leave. They would return to their country of origin, but would still be able to apply for legal U.S. citizenship, via the proper channels. One thousand dollars may not sound like much, but that kind of U.S. currency in many of these nations is gold. It will be fascinating to watch how many people sign up!
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“Re-Opening Alcatraz?” – It strikes me as odd in the era of DOGE, the budget-slashing Department of Government Efficiency, that President Donald Trump would propose reopening the former federal Alcatraz Penitentiary. While he is trying to save billions by cutting or closing agencies, including the Department of Justice, reopening the legendary prison would cost millions, perhaps billions. It was closed in 1963, and while it remains a popular place for tourists to visit by boat, its infrastructure in crumbling into sad disrepair. Trump says his intentions are to house America’s “most ruthless and violent” offenders. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose district includes Alcatraz, wrote on X, “It is now a very popular national park and major tourist attraction. The president’s proposal is not a serious one.”
“No Third Trump Term” – After teasing the public and press about the possibility, President Trump says he will not attempt to win a third term in the White House. Trump told NBC News, “I’ll be an eight-year president; I’ll be a two-term president.” Back in March, Trump said he was thinking of running again, but was apparently unaware that the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution forbids it. He added, “It’s something that, to the best of my knowledge, you’re not allowed to do. I don’t know if that’s constitutional that they’re not allowing you to do it or anything else.” The only way it could happen is if the term-limit amendment were repealed, a highly unlikely, tedious, and time-consuming effort.
“The New Pope” – A lot of people believe religion and politics shouldn’t mix, but that’s not realistic, as their agendas often overlap. Pope Leo XIV was selected this week, and many feel he is a progressive like his predecessor, Pope Francis. It will be fascinating to watch as Pope Leo sits down with world leaders, including President Trump. Prior to Leo’s selection, Trump joked with reporters that he, too, wanted the job, even posting a meme photo of Trump as pope. Trump said, "I'd like to be pope. That would be my number one choice." Many, including lots of Catholics, were not amused. The Archbishop of New York, Cardinal Timothy Dolan, said, "It wasn't good." Still, after Leo’s selection as the first pope from the United States, Trump said, “It is such an honor to realize that he is the first American pope. What excitement, and what a great honor for our country. I look forward to meeting Pope Leo XIV.”
“Mid-Air Scare” – The most frightening story of the past week was the 60 to 90 second outage inside the air traffic control tower at the Newark International Airport, one of the “big three” that serve New York City. During that time, controllers lost both radar and radio communications with pilots and their planes, in one of the world’s busiest airspaces. Officials say a piece of old copper wire burned, and that short-circuited the system. Critics on Capitol Hill abound. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D), New York, said, “The technology is old and must be updated. One of the things that happened at Newark is a copper wire burnt. Why are we using copper wire in 2025? Have they heard of fiber?” On Friday, there was another 90-second outage. The good news is it wasn’t terrorism, which is my big fear for our entire utility and transportation grid. In an era of DOGE budget cuts, including at the FAA, we cannot be risking public safety. Upgrades to such critical infrastructure needs should be a priority.
“International Tensions” – There are two new hot spots on the globe in recent days, that I fear could escalate into a very dangerous situation. The bitter rivals of India and Pakistan are lobbing military attacks. Both nations have nuclear weapons. Israel has also launched strikes on Houthi rebel targets in Yemen, and other Arab nations, such as Iran, are not happy about it. Say what you want about U.S., Russia, and China relations, but I think “the big three” powers are restraining themselves because they know how bad an all-out nuclear battle would be. I don’t think India and Pakistan have that same degree of restraint. One bad decision, by one reckless leader, and we could have a smaller-scale nuclear battle which could then escalate out of control.
“Trade and Tariffs Market Impact” – We’ve spent weeks debating the pros and cons of tariffs and trade. In a recent development, the United States and the United Kingdom have agreed to a new trade deal. The financial markets have posted modest gains all week, but really shot up Thursday when the U.S.-U.K. deal was unveiled. Trump is also talking about cutting the 145% tariff on goods from China, down to 80%. For now, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. After some initial volatility over the past month, things have stabilized economically, which is an advantage to the party in power. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the “techie” Nasdaq all made solid gains, overall, in the past week, although there was a modest decline or flat Friday. What ultimately happens in the economy will weigh heavily at the polls in 2026.
“Transgender Military” – The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled the Trump administration can begin dismissing transgendered people from the military, at least temporarily, pending further appeals and review. Trump entered the fray with an executive order that banned transgender military service. There is case law that as Commander-in-Chief, a president, can issue such an order just as President Harry Truman ended racial segregation of the armed forces with an executive order in 1948. President Bill Clinton’s policy of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” on sexual orientation was codified into law by Congress and signed by Clinton. President Barack Obama was able to get Congress to repeal “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” by simply passing his own bill to allow all LGBTQ+ people to serve. The high court’s ruling was 6 to 3 along party lines of appointment. I believe that, on final review, the court will allow Trump’s ban to remain in effect until a future president alters it or Congress codifies the order into law.
“Trump on the Stump” – While he is termed out, President Trump plans to be active in 2026, working to hold his party’s slim majorities in the Congressional midterm elections. A fascinating online poll of 23,000 voters by Civiqs has some interesting results. Voters in 23 states approved of the Trump agenda at the 100-day mark, while voters in 26 states disapproved. Oddly enough, Texas was the only state with a tie at 48 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove. Four key states that Trump won in 2016 and 2024 now disapprove of his job performance. They are Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. He barely won his home state of Florida with 49 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving. Many of these states have key, close Congressional races next year. Trump is also trying to get GOP House and Senate members to raise income taxes on people making $2.5 million a year or more. Raising any taxes could be a tough sell back home, especially since Trump is not on the ballot. Some GOP candidates may ask him not to campaign for them.
“Senate Race Fades” – Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) Georgia is considered by many to be one of the most vulnerable U.S. Senators up for reelection in 2026. Two-term Gov. Brian Kemp (R) was strongly considering a challenge to Ossoff and was polling well. Not anymore. On Monday, Kemp opted out. This is another big blow to Republicans, who are hoping to increase their slim, three-vote majority in the upper chamber. Current or past Republican governors in New Hampshire, Maryland, Arizona, and Vermont have also declined to run for Senate in 2026. That puts the GOP at 0 for 5, in an election cycle with an electorate worried about Trump’s policies. The trend could hurt the party overall.