Hang on to Your Pocketbooks on this Wild Ride! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” March 16, 2025

Hang on to Your Pocketbooks on this Wild Ride! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” March 16, 2025

We are in an interesting political tug-of-war. The Republican White House makes one move, and the Democrat minority in Congress and elsewhere make a counter-move. Yes, it’s a political chess game, but it has real consequences for real people all across the nation. This is not just about the next election, it’s also about our next expectation of what benefits the government will deliver, or perhaps not deliver. And it’s also about how much we still have in our wallets and purses! Let’s “brunch” on that and more this week!

 

“Budget Deal” – Of course, the fights aren’t all just in the courtrooms this week. Congress and the White House remained in a political tug of war to keep the government funded and open, and as is almost always the case, we went right down to the wire. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D) New York said Senate Republicans did not have the votes to kill a planned filibuster by Democrats. So, he implored the Senate to vote on a House Continuing Resolution to keep the government temporarily funded. “We should vote on that. I hope - I hope - our Republican colleagues will join us to avoid a shutdown on Friday.” Nine other Democrats joined with Schumer and voted with all but one Republican, and the shutdown was averted. Many fellow Democrats were furious with Schumer who said, “I thought a government shutdown would be worse and would give Trump and Elon Musk and the DOGE operation more of an opportunity to fire people, to shut down agencies and to close the work of the government.”

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“The Art of the Deal, Next Chapter?” - Only one House Republican voted against the deal, with many supporting the budget and staffing cuts being pushed by Trump and Elon Musk. “You got people in place that are going to watch our money,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R) South Carolina. Late Thursday night, Sen. Schumer signaled he’d support a Trump move to keep the government open. Schumer said he did not want to give Trump and Elon Musk a political “gift” for the GOP to attack Democrats in the coming 2026 elections. As I always say, it helps neither party to have a government shutdown and I’ve covered several. These negotiations make the markets jittery, with the Dow Jones plummeting more than 1,500 points this week, before a Friday rebound. But the S&P 500 lost 10 percent, and the NASDAQ was down 2 percent. People are worried about their investment and retirement accounts, and rightly so.

 

“Pay Me Now; or Pay Me Later” – According to the Tax Foundation, the U.S. has imposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, with 10% on China, and each has imposed similar tariffs on U.S. goods. The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on goods and services from European Union nations, with their threat of imposing a 50% tariff on us. Trump threatened to increase tariffs by 200% in April. To my amusement, the tariffs often involve things such as surcharging French wines, or adding to the tab of Kentucky bourbon exiting our borders. I’ll be honest folks, if there ever was a time many of us needed a stiff drink (imported or exported), it is probably now, though moderation is advised! The tariff war and threatened government shutdown mentioned above made Wall Street and individual investors very nervous, adding to the turmoil in the markets.

 

“Tariff Wars”- I’m sorry, but I think we are going to need a scorecard on the tariff wars. Ironically, I just turned 65 in the past year and expect my first Social Security check to be deposited this week. I believe it will be there, but like many others, I worry, how many more will there be in the years to come? So much of the short-term concern is about Trump issuing steep tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico, and our European allies, and they in turn issuing sharp tariffs on our goods, only with Trump ratcheting it up even more. “I’m not going to bend at all,” Trump said during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. “We’ve been ripped off for years, and we’re not going to be ripped off anymore,” Trump added.

 

“Trump vs. USAID” -- It’s been another week of the tennis match-like volleying involving initiatives from President Trump, that some federal courts are overturning. This time in a court in New York, Judge Amir Alie surmised that Trump overstepped his constitutional authority in freezing almost all spending from the U.S. Agency for International Development, saying the administration could no longer freeze the tens of billions of dollars that Congress has appropriated for foreign aid. Trump’s goal is to downsize what he calls a “bloated” agency with 10,000 employees, down to fewer than 300 workers. I have predicted for weeks that this and other challenges to Trump’s orders would end up in the U.S. Supreme Court, so watch the appeals process get underway. There are now more than 100 federal cases filed against Trump.

 

“Layoffs or Lay Off?” – Well, as I predicted, a federal judge ordered the U.S. government to rehire thousands of employees dismissed from six agencies, saying the Trump administration’s justification for firing the probationary workers was a “sham.” Those agencies include the Department of Defense and the Veterans Administration. I know I will sound like a broken record here, but Trump is cutting people and programs authorized and funded by Congress. So again, I think many of these cases will rise to the Supreme Court, perhaps en masse, and it will be decided by a separation of powers ruling that Congress can’t be excluded from the decision-making. As I’ve said before, with Democrats in the minority, the courts are their best shot, and I predict they will prevail in many cases where this is in dispute.

 

“Chopping Food Challenges” – Undaunted by what the courts are saying, the Trump Administration has ordered more than $1 billion in cuts from schools, food banks, and other low-income food programs serviced by the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture). Expect legal challenges to this, too, as many of these programs were mandated and funded by Congress. Again, it’s an issue of separation of powers.

 

“Trump vs. Associated Press” – Another legal case to keep an eye on this week, is the Associated Press v. the Trump Administration. A couple of weeks ago, Trump kicked the AP out of the presidential press pool at the White House and aboard Air Force One. The issue? AP insisted on calling the large body of warm water bordering the southeastern U.S., the Gulf of Mexico, and not the Gulf of America as Trump insists. A federal judge declined to temporarily lift the ban, even though AP says it could be economically harmed.

 

“And the Winner is?” - While I am on AP’s side (and support a broad First Amendment interpretation), I don’t know that it can prove irreparable harm. AP still has access to ALL the same information as other media outlets, but its reporters simply aren’t allowed in to ask questions. This side issue will be a key part of the judge’s ruling. One interesting nugget is that Trump himself pulled the trigger, as the White House acknowledged in court filings, saying, “As the Associated Press itself reported, the President himself made the decision to terminate its access.” Is that just vindictive? Or does it violate the First Amendment in some way? I find this fascinating. Does free press mean free, open access, to all? Or are their reasonable limitations with the press “pooling” some of its newsgathering efforts?