Trump, Tariffs, and Elections – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – April 6, 2025
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Trump, Tariffs, and Elections – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – April 6, 2025
“Tariffs, Tariffs, and More Tariffs” – President Donald Trump unveiled his tariff plan Wednesday, with both sides debating on how they may help, or hurt the U.S. economy. On Thursday and Friday, U.S. financial markets plummeted sharply by 10 percent. But will that last, or rebound? It’s not something you can assess in a few days. But if they are widely believed to damage the U.S. economy from now until the 2026 elections, then there could be consequences at the ballot box. It a roll of the dice, especially for the incumbent party that virtually controls every facet of government heading into the next election cycle! It was no accident in timing that the tariffs were announced the day after this past week’s special elections.
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“What to Watch for Next?” - Sharp market drops like these often bring out the bargain hunters. Investors who’ve been sitting on the sidelines with lots of cash, may go for a “fire sale” as many stocks bottom out. That kind of action can help the markets bounce back. “This is a great time to get rich, richer than ever before!” Trump posted on Truth Social. He’s not wrong, but he’s also not talking about very many people. Most Americans don’t have that kind of cash on hand. Many are no doubt checking their 401(k) plans to see how bad their retirement savings took a hit. There are concerns this could lead to inflation. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday, "It is also possible that the (inflationary) effects could be more persistent.” He added that the economy was shaken up by “significantly larger-than-expected” tariffs. That could affect Powell’s actions to raise or lower interest rates. Trump wants more rate cuts.
“The Politics of All This” – I’ve said before that Trump really only has an 18-month window to address his agenda before he becomes a “lame duck.” Members of Congress won’t want to be hanging onto his coattails between now and 2026 if it could cost them reelection. So, he’s already seeing critics on both sides of the political aisle. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) North Carolina faces a tough reelection next year, and he’s already hearing complaints from his state’s farmers. Tillis told The Hill newspaper, “The initial concerns are coming out of agriculture because they’re the first to get hit with market access and any retaliatory tariffs.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D) New York said, “We’re going to fight these tariffs tooth and nail.” In fact, Senate Democrats introduced a bill to limit Trump’s tariff authority, and four Republicans joined them, so it passed. It’s future in the House is uncertain, and Trump would veto even if it passes there. The bill is largely symbolic. As mentioned, the economic trends of the next 18 months are key.
“Trump Third Term?” – It is the buzz of social media. President Trump is saying he’s thinking about trying for a third term. Trump said, “A lot of people want me to do it.” He added. “But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go – you know, it’s very early in the administration.” Trump critic and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D) Texas posted on social media, “The Constitution isn’t optional, sir. This isn’t a reality show – it’s reality.” She added, “Two terms, that’s it.”
“What Say You, the Constitution?” – First, I think for the sake of discussion, we should print the text of the 22nd Amendment. It states: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once.” The Amendment, approved in early 1951, grandfathered President Harry Truman in, so he could have run for a third term in 1952, but chose not to. It began applying when President Dwight Eisenhower was elected.
“Obama, Too?” - “There are methods which you could do it,” Trump said this past week, and he’s not incorrect, but in truth there is only one method. The only way to repeal an Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is to pass another Amendment to get rid of the first one. This was done when Prohibition was repealed. A Constitutional Amendment requires the approval of 38 states, and it’s usually a very time-consuming process. The next presidential election cycle begins in less than three years. But suddenly this has Democrats fired up, too! Some are saying make it a Barrack Obama versus Donald Trump showdown in 2028. Well-known political influencer Harry Sisson said on X, “Trump should really stop talking about running for a third term unless he wants to get absolutely humiliated by President Obama in a presidential race.” To which Trump said, “That would be a good one. I’d like that.” A longshot, but it really would be something!
“The Bull-DOGE-er Has Arrived” – We are starting to see the real meat of the planned cuts from DOGE, the Elon Musk-run effort to cut government spending. The Department of Health and Human Services, HHS, may shed 20 thousand jobs. Various sources say at least 10 thousand workers have already taken early retirement or buyouts, with the rest departing in the coming months. That’s one-fourth of the agency’s workforce. The Food and Drug Administration, FDA, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, are among the hardest hit.
“When Will We Know if it Matters? – As a person who just entered the Medicare and Social Security system, I am having some of my first interactions with the federal workforce. Up until now, I only engaged with the U.S. Postal Service and the student loan office. A lot of people in my generation are in the same boat. But to others, contact with federal workers is more widespread. Veterans come to mind, as do lower-income folks who use Medicaid for health care and SNAP benefits to eat. By the 2026 election, we should have a much clearer picture on just how many people are affected, and who they are. If there is wide public dissatisfaction with the impact of cuts, that could be a meaty issue for Democrats in the midterm elections. If there is little visible public impact, that could help Republicans in tight Congressional races. We’ll see.
“Florida Special Election” – Of course we got a bit of a snapshot this week with three special elections, in two states where I lived a combined more than half my life and covered news. It’s certainly too small of a sample to be a predictor of 2026, but it is causing some chatter. In Florida’s very conservative First Congressional District, State Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis defeated Democrat Gay Valimont, who ran on a gun control platform. I lived in the district for five years, and as the old saying goes, “that dog won’t hunt here.” The margin was 57 to 46 percent. But is there worry? Trump won this district by 19 points in November and former Rep. Matt Gaetz beat the same Democrat by 30 points. Is GOP support eroding? Perhaps. In the Sixth District, Republican State Sen. Randy Fine was challenged by school teacher Josh Weil. The coastal district runs from Saint Augustine to Daytona Beach. Fine won, 57 to 43 percent, again much closer than November. When the spread was 33 percentage points. The wins slightly bolster the GOP’s paper-thin majority in the House.
“Wisconsin Special Election” – I was born and raised in Wisconsin, living the first 25 years of my life there. I still watch the politics closely as most of my immediate family still lives there. A contested race for the State Supreme Court pit former Republican Attorney General Brad Shimel against Dane County Judge Susan Crawford. Shimel was backed by President Trump and billionaire Elon Musk who helped funnel in millions of dollars in out-of-state donations. Crawford was backed by former President Obama and billionaire Geroge Soros, both who also solicited millions in nationwide donations. The result means Democrats will now control the WI Supreme Court, including how Congressional Districts get redrawn and aspects of abortion law. It’s important nationally as Wisconsin was a key swing state in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential races, and likely will be again in 2028.
“Talking Marathon, A Presidential Run?” – Sen. Cory Booker (D) New Jersey broke a record for the longest speech in U.S. Senate history by logging 25 consecutive hours on the Senate floor criticizing the Trump agenda. But due to all the above-mentioned news, it was largely overshadowed and got scant coverage. Still, Democrats have no clear frontrunner in 2028, so there is wide speculation this was his 2028 White House bid kickoff. I say he’s in.