Money Woes Frame Our Next Election - “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- April 27, 2025
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Money Woes Frame Our Next Election - “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- April 27, 2025
“Annual Growth?” – We’ve had three weeks of financial market turmoil over the trade wars and tariff fights. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones gained more than 1,000 points after dropping close to 1,000 points on Monday. The Dow rose 419 points Wednesday, and surged more than 480 points Thursday, passing the symbolic 40,000-point mark. On the other hand, U. S. economic growth was forecast to rise 2.8 percent in 2025, but now that estimation has been scaled back to 1.8 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Consumer confidence levels have dropped sharply over the past three months. And a proposed 145 percent tariff on China could cause clothing prices to soar. The U.S. gets an estimated 22 percent of its clothing from China, and there are reports that things as simple as men’s t-shirts and underwear could double in price. Tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China continue.
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“Jitters and Skitters” – The constant uncertainty is making average people nervous, not to mention investors. People don’t just watch the daily price of gasoline and groceries, as many also keep an eye on their 401(k) retirement investments. They all matter! Things seemed to stabilize a bit mid-week when Trump backed off on firing Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell.
The Dow Jones ended the week down 237 points, again dropping below the 40,000-point margin, and finishing almost 3 percent lower than a week ago. After a roller coaster ride the past three weeks, perhaps things are leveling off slightly. Still, a new Associated Press poll says only 37 percent of Americans approve of how President Trump is handling the economy and trade negotiations. His own party should find that troubling heading into the 2026 election cycle.
“Tesla Troubles” – When you talk about consumer confidence, one thing people like is stability at the top. They may not like President Donald Trump, but if his policy positions keep the economy stable, then so be it. There appears to be a crack forming near the top. Presidential advisor Elon Musk says he’s preparing to step back as the leader of DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency. Why? Revenue at his Tesla auto company is down 71 percent from last year. Tesla owners find their vehicles under attack and even set on fire. Musk said this past week he needs to take a step back from DOGE, to reign in troubles at Tesla. That may all be justified, but it’s not a good look for Team Trump, when you are trying to build economic confidence. Musk said, "My time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly." He added the effort is "mostly done," but said he might still work for Trump one or two days a week.
“T-Minus 18 Months and Counting” – This coming Saturday, May 3, marks exactly 18 months until Election Day 2026. That may seem far away, but in the world of politics, it is not. It will be here in lightning speed, and mistakes now, may go unforgivable then. The margins are thin and it’s anybody’s race for control of the U.S. House and Senate. In the House, Republicans still hold a 220 to 213 majority. There are two empty seats in reliably Democratic districts. Those two seats, and just a net gain of three more, will put Democrats back in charge. The GOP holds the Senate 53 to 47, but a net gain of 4 Democrats would put them back in charge. Democrats are defending just 13 seats compared to 22 seats for Republicans. That’s a big advantage for Democrats. This is why what they all do now, will affect what happens in November 2026.
“Are Democrats Waving a White Flag?” – Despite their numerical advantage heading into 2026, more Democrats are bailing. This week Minority Whip Sen. Dick Durbin (D) Illinois, announced he’s not running for reelection in 2026, after serving 44 years in Congress. He joins three other Democrats who are throwing in the towel: Sen. Gary Peters (D), Michigan, Sen. Tina Smith (D), Minnesota, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), New Hampshire. All four should have been slam dunks for reelection, but now the seats in Michigan and New Hampshire could be Republican pick-ups. By comparison, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky, is the only GOP Senator not running again. But the red state of Kentucky is likely to elect another Republican. Strategically, this is not a good look for Democrats. You have to wonder if they caucused at all and discussed this. In theory, they may be passing on a golden opportunity to regain Senate control.
“Hi, Ho! Hi Ho! It’s Off to Court We Go!” – For three months, we’ve reported on the hundreds of legal challenges to President Trump’s executive orders. Now, he has lost another one, at least temporarily. A federal district judge has ordered a stop to Trump’s order to dismantle the Voice of America, and in the process laid off its 1,300 employees and 500 contractors. But the 83-year-old news agency was actually created and funded by Congress, so there is some question about Executive Branch jurisdiction. Voice of America was designed to provide a Western perspective on world events post-World War II, to help prevent the spread of communism. The Trump White House said VOA had a “left wing bias,” but lawyers for the agency employees said it provided news, “truthfully, impartially, and objectively” to parts of the world with no free press. An appeal from Team Trump is certain!
“The Court Floodgates Open” – The Voice of America case was not the only one this week. A different federal judge ruled that Trump’s requirement to show proof of citizenship to vote violated a Congressionally passed law and violated states’ rights to run their own elections. Another judge ruled Trump cannot deny school funding to districts that keep diversity policies, against his executive order. There will be appeals on both. Also, Trump appealed directly to the U.S. Supreme Court to uphold his dismissals for any transgender service members in the military. I bet the high court sends it back to lower courts for review first. Lawsuits, lawsuits and more lawsuits!
“Hegseth Again” – The distractions of Musk are not the only ones causing concern. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is coming under fire again. A few weeks ago, he and key cabinet-level members of the national security team were discussing military strategy against the hostile Houthis in Yemen, when somehow an Atlantic reporter was allowed in on the chat conversation. Now comes another report that Hegseth included his wife, his brother, and his lawyer on another Signal chat, again discussing military operations in Yemen. None of these people has the property security clearance, let alone, the need to know. There has also been some high-level dissent in the ranks at the Pentagon. I don’t think Hegseth will still be in office by the end of this year.
“Farewell Pope Francis” – You would think the death of a widely respected world leader, might bring a pause in angry political rhetoric, at least for a moment. But within hours of the death of Pope Francis, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) Georgia went on X saying, "Today there were major shifts in global leaderships. Evil is being defeated by the hand of God." Greene was referring to the pope as well as Klaus Schwab who stepped down as head of the World Economic Forum. Both men have been the targets of Greene’s wrath over the years, including the pope for his views on the treatment of fleeing migrants which she said amounted to, “Satan controlling the church.” The White House was far kinder and more diplomatic, with Trump posting on Truth Social, "Rest in Peace Pope Francis! May God Bless him and all who loved him!"