Riding Out the Roller Coaster – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - April 13, 2025

Riding Out the Roller Coaster – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - April 13, 2025

 

What a tumultuous week it has been in the White House, the halls of Congress, the federal courts, and yes, the financial markets. It’s just a reminder of how intertwined so many institutions are in our ever-expanding political landscape. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

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“Trump Tariff Turmoil” – Call it a yo-yo or a roller coaster ride, but the financial market’s boom-bust-boom-bust cycle over the past ten days has been stunning. I don’t recall such a volatile stretch. Between April 3 and 7, the Dow Jones lost approximately 5,000 points. Then, on Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced he would suspend his 10 percent tariff on most nations for 90 days. But he would add a 125 percent tariff on goods from China, and that nation countered with an 84 percent tariff on U.S. goods. The Dow was down shortly before that, but surged to close up nearly 3,000 points. Then, Thursday, another sell-off caused a 1,100-point drop, after Trump upped the Chinese tariff to 145 percent. So, how will this all play out politically? Markets often stabilize right after an election. The old saying is, “The markets like certainty.” The longer this volatility lasts, the more it potentially harms the party in power.

 

“What Say the Parties?" - This is becoming like a tennis match. President Trump says the markets will rebound, but the tariff fight isn’t over, saying, “Sometimes you have to take medicine.” He added, “China wants to make a deal. They just don’t know how to get it started.” Many Democrats are not convinced. Rep Gregory Meeks (D) New York, said, “If this is the art of the deal, the American people are getting the short end of the stick.” The story and market impact seem to change by the hour. If this leads to inflation and higher interest rates, voters will take note. But if the tariffs mean more overseas goods will be produced back in the U.S., that may help the economy. But there is literally an 18-month window to calm the turbulence before Election Day 2026.

 

“Must Musk, Mush?” – There have been hints in recent days that Elon Musk may be wearing out his welcome at the White House. Musk and Senior Trade Advisor Peter Navarro have been in a war of words on social media. Musk opposes many of the Trump tariffs, while Navarro supports them. On Fox News, Navarro said, "Elon sells cars" and is "simply protecting his own interests." He added, “He's not a car manufacturer — he's a car assembler." That prompted Musk to fume on social media saying, "Navarro is truly a moron. What he says here is demonstrably false." Musk added, "Tesla has the most American-made cars. Navarro is dumber than a sack of bricks." Ouch and ouch! Something tells me this is not going to end well!

 

“Court Wins and Losses” – It continues to be a mixed bag of rulings, in the challenge of 174 Trump executive orders in the federal court system. Here’s at least a temporary win for Trump. The Supreme Court is what might be called a 5 ½ to 3 ½ vote. The high court says the White House can continue to deport suspected criminal migrants under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act. The half votes are because Justice Amy Coney Barrett “partially dissented.” The Supreme Court says it will consider the case again, once it gets through the appeals process. Even if Barrett fully dissents in the end, Trump has the five votes he needs to win. Meanwhile, in a loss, a district court judge ruled that Trump’s banning of the Associated Press from White House briefings and Air Force One is “unconstitutional.” But he gave the White House a week to appeal.

 

“Freedom of the Press” – So what’s really at stake in the AP case? I think it’s important to cite the key verbiage of the First Amendment: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press…” Trump says he renamed the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. AP chooses to keep referring to that body of water as the Gulf of Mexico, so it was banned from the White House. In his decision, Judge Trevor McFadden said, “Under the First Amendment, if the Government opens its doors to some journalists—be it to the Oval Office, the East Room, or elsewhere—it cannot then shut those doors to other journalists because of their viewpoints. The Constitution requires no less.” In short, the government can’t mandate content in a free press!

 

“Terminator Trump” – The court case is not over yet, but this is a potential legal win for the Trump administration. The Supreme Court has temporarily set aside a lower federal court ruling that the Trump team must put 16,000 probationary workers back on the payroll while the courts try to settle whether the president even has the authority to fire all of those employees who work in executive branch agencies. The counter-argument is that Congress has approved and funded many of these jobs, and it should have some say in the employees’ futures. One question to be settled is whether the workers, who are still in their probationary period, enjoy any type of civil service protections. So, it bounces back to the Circuit Court of Appeals, but will most likely go back to the Supreme Court for a final ruling.

 

“Budget Battle” – While all of this other drama plays out, the president’s all-encompassing budget and agenda bill was in serious danger in the House, after passing in the Senate by just two votes. Among the big sticking points was how to pay for continued income tax cuts, with spending cuts. Rep Chip Roy (R) Texas, was among those in the GOP threatening to vote no. He said, “Stop lying to the American people that you can just magically put something on a board and say, ‘Oh, it all pays for itself.’ It doesn’t.” If just two other Republicans joined him in voting no in the House, the bill would have died. But in the end, only two Republicans bolted their caucus and the bill passed with a one-vote margin.

 

“Killing Justice Kavanaugh” – One of the most disturbing political stories in recent years, has received scant news coverage in my opinion, and I think that’s wrong. On Tuesday, a California man pleaded guilty to the attempted murder of U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh. 29-year-old Nicholas Roske was found outside Kavanaugh’s suburban Maryland home in 2022. U.S. Marshals say he was in possession of a knife, a gun, and a bag of zip ties. Investigators say Roske posted on an internet chat board that he was aiming to kill Kavanaugh and two other unnamed justices. Roske said he was upset about the overturning of Roe v. Wade and Kavanaugh’s position on gun control. This is as crazy as the guy aiming to kill then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in her home, instead nearly beating her husband to death. And we saw two attempts on Donald Trump’s life. We just need to do more to protect our leaders better, and maybe tone down some of the rhetoric in politics.

 

“Thanks for Nothing!” – Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. paid a visit to West Virginia last week, one of the unhealthiest states in the nation. Kennedy promised to “Make America Healthy Again.” The White House has the firm support of Gov. Patrick Morrisey (R) West Virginia. The rather-portly Morrisey, who by his own admission knows he’s overweight, just signed some Kennedy-backed health initiatives into West Virginia law. Oddly, Kennedy took time to publicly “weight-shame” Morrisey. Kennedy announced, "I said to Governor Morrisey the first time I saw him, 'You look like you ate Governor Morrisey.'"

 

There were some nervous chuckles, and Morrisey has embarked on a plan to lose 30 pounds and walk a mile every day. He and I have discussed our weight loss struggles over the years, so I wish him luck. But I never would have called him out in public like that. It was just jarring and rude!