Off to the Races in 2026 and 2028—“The Sunday Political Brunch” - July 6, 2025
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Off to the Races in 2026 and 2028—“The Sunday Political Brunch” - July 6, 2025
“Big Beautiful Bill Battle” – The “Big, Beautiful Bill” was changed by the Senate and passed with Vice President JD Vance breaking the 50-50 tie. With the amendments, it went back to the House which previously passed its own version on a 215-214 vote. This time the House passed it 218-214, so now it gets President Trump’s signature. But I also call this the “unofficial” launch of campaign 2026 and even 2028. It will likely take 8 to 12 months before we know the solid economic impacts of this legislation. If the tax cuts truly benefit all as Republicans claim, it could help them keep control of both the House and Senate. But if there are visible harms caused by cuts to Medicaid, food stamps, and more, then the minority party may gain enough traction to take one, or both, chambers of Congress. I say this will be the number one issue in the midterms.
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“Trump v. Musk Feud, Chapter Two” – First, they had an Oval Office blowout, then they “kissed and made-up.” Now, it appears the feud between President Trump and former DOGE director Elon Musk is back on again. Musk wrote on Twitter, "The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country." Musk said he would financially support and endorse primary challengers against any Republicans who voted “yes” on the “big, beautiful bill.” Trump responded by saying he could have DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency), look into Musk’s business contracts with the government. Trump even suggested he might “take a look” at deporting Musk, who is a native of South Africa. This looks to remain ugly.
“A Supreme Send Off” – On its final day of its 2024-25 session, the U.S. Supreme Court said it will hear a Republican-backed appeal to end limits on political party spending in races for Congress and the White House. While Democrats oppose the change, it could open up the floodgates funneling more money into both parties for the 2026 and 2028 election cycles, and beyond. Justices will hear the case in the fall term. The Supreme Court will also hear a case about whether states can ban transgender athletes from participating in sports based on their gender identity and not their birth gender. Also, a federal district judge has banned the Trump administration from blocking migrants from entering this country who are seeking political asylum from their home country. The White House will appeal, and again this is will likely get to the Supreme Court.
“Emerson Polls Democrats” – According to a recent Emerson College poll, here is how the top five Democrats stand: Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads with 16 percent, followed by 2024 nominee Vice President Kamala Harris with 13 percent and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California at 12 percent. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is in fourth place with 7 percent, and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) Pennsylvania is tied with her at 7 percent. The good news for all is that 23 percent of Democrats say they are undecided, so a lot of votes are still up for grabs.
“The X Factors” – I predict Kamala Harris will be elected governor of California in 2026, so that could raise her stakes. On the other hand, it’s rare for a party to give another nomination to someone who has already run and lost. Still, she’s in the mix. But having two Californians in the race might be dicey. Obviously, both Harris and Newsom could carry the Democrats' “big three” states of California, New York, and Illinois, but can they win elsewhere? Somehow, I see Gov. Shapiro, or Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), Michigan somewhere on the ticket, because Democrats need to recapture the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He’s a nice guy, but Harris’s pick of Gov. Tim Walz (D) Minnesota as her VP didn’t help her win any battleground states. In hindsight, she should have picked Shapiro. My early prediction is a Newsom-Whitmer ticket.
“White House Insiders” – It will be fascinating to watch the role of President Trump in this process, as normally a sitting president stays on the sidelines. In 1988, for example, President Ronald Reagan did not endorse his Vice President George H.W. Bush, who was being challenged by Sen. Bob Dole (R) Kansas. Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Dwight Eisenhower did little to promote their VPs in the primaries. I bring this up because I think Trump wants to be more active in choosing his successor. Vice President JD Vance is likely to be a contender, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida, are also very viable for the nomination.
“JD Vance Has a Chance” – At the end of his term, Vance will have four years as Vice President and two years as a U.S. Senator under his belt. In political terms, that’s not a lot. But he also served in the U.S. Marines, and his “Hillbilly Elegy” life story is compelling. His loyal support of Trump has been unwavering, and his passionate, angry defense of Trump in the Oval Office dust-up with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was his defining moment, and I suspect we’ll see clips of it in campaign ads. Vance is 40.
“DeSantis Miss?” – Gov. DeSantis has had an up-and-down relationship with Trump. He competed against Trump in the 2024 primaries, then fully endorsed Trump after he bowed out. On the other hand, DeSantis wants his wife Casey to succeed him as Governor and he sought Trump’s endorsement. Instead, Trump endorsed Rep. Byron Donald (R) Florida. But in a three-way or four-way primary, DeSantis still has a shot. By then he will have served eight years as governor of the nation’s third largest state, and before that served six years in the U.S. House. Like Vance, he is also a military veteran. DeSantis is 46.
“Big Marco” – The emerging challenger is Secretary of State Marco Rubio who has impressed a lot of people with his prowess on the international stage. He also wears two hats as he is Trump’s National Security Advisor. He also served as Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, which is no small accomplishment. In 2016, Rubio challenged Trump for the presidential nomination, but critics viewed the one-term U.S. Senator as a lightweight politically. Trump called him “Little Marco” during the 2016 primary debates. Rubio would later endorse Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024, and the two have built a solid working relationship. Rubio, a Cuban-American, would be the first viable Hispanic candidate for president in that fast-growing voter demographic. He is 54. Each of these three men is probably viable for the next four election cycles. If I were to predict today, I say Trump will endorse Vance.
“Alligator Alcatraz” – Winning the State of Florida in the 2028 primary season is important to each of these candidates. To that end, Gov. DeSantis accompanied President Trump on his visit to the so-called Alligator Alcatraz near Miami this week. DeSantis is having the detention facility opened on a once active airstrip known as the Dade-Collier Training and Transition Airport. The property is surrounded by water from the Everglades. At its peak, they hope to house approximately 5,000 migrant detainees here. The runway is being reactivated so planes can come and fly the migrants back to their home countries. DeSantis said, “Clearly from a security perspective, if someone escapes, there’s a lot of alligators you’re going to have to contend (with).” He added. “No one is going anywhere once you do that. It’s as safe and secure as you can be.” Critics call the concept “racist” as it will be used to primarily house migrants of color. They also complain that DeSantis bypassed important environmental rules in the construction and a federal lawsuit is pending.