There’s Turmoil at Every Turn – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - June 15, 2025

There’s Turmoil at Every Turn – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - June 15, 2025

Violence and bloodshed have occurred in several corners of the world in recent days, and it reminds of that old Billy Joel song about chaos entitled, “We Didn’t Start the Fire!” There is a lot of finger-pointing going on over who’s to blame. Many streets have erupted in protests across this nation over the issue of immigration enforcement. And now a dangerous battle has erupted in the Middle East. All of this has potential political impact. So, let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Iran vs. Israel” – The worst fears of many have arrived. Israel and Iran are engaged in an all-out military conflict over Iran’s nuclear program. Israel launched multiple attacks Friday on Iran’s suspected nuclear sites, killing top leaders. The U.S. had been trying to avert this through negotiations. "I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal," President Donald Trump said. He added, “There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left." Iran sent hundreds of armed drones towards Israel. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a statement saying that Israel had "unleashed its wicked and bloody" hand in a crime against Iran. The fallout from this isn’t just in the military realm. Oil prices have initially spiked, and financial markets indicate a tumble.

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"Protests Over Protests" – For now, a federal appeals court is upholding President Donald Trump's call-up of the California National Guard, after a federal district court shut it down. Trump has also ordered 700 Marines to begin training for possible deployments in an effort to protect U.S. customs and border agents from being attacked by violent protesters. The president says he's also considering invoking the Insurrection Act. That would give the military domestic law enforcement powers, which they normally don't have. Trump said, "If there's an insurrection, I would certainly invoke it. We'll see." Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California responded, saying, "Democracy is under assault before our eyes. The moment we have feared has arrived." I expect the U.S. Supreme Court will quickly hear an appeal in this case.

 

“The Takedown Take Down” -- The emotions boiled over on Thursday when Sen. Alex Padilla (D) California tried to interrupt a news conference in Los Angeles being held by Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. Senator Padilla was forcefully removed by law enforcement and handcuffed. Critics are saying he should not have rudely interrupted the press conference and he appeared to lunge toward the cabinet secretary. FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino said, "The senator in question was not wearing a security pin and physically resisted law enforcement when confronted." But Padilla supporters say he had a right to speak out and raise questions about the turmoil in California. Even Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski was outraged at Padilla’s treatment, saying, "Senator Padilla is a big, tall guy, and to see how he was handled out of that room is wrong and sick." Maybe I’m too cynical after all my years covering politics, but I think both sides view this as good political theater for their respective positions. Afterall, the video is being played over and over and over again on TV and social media.

 

"Some Historical Perspective"- What Trump is doing is rare, but not without precedent. In 1965, President Lyndon Johnson called out the Alabama National Guard to protect Black protesters, after Gov. George Wallace (D) Alabama declined to do the same. So, the reasons may be different, but the president, as commander-in-chief of the military, has that option at his disposal. In 1965, it was to protect the civil rights of marchers, but in 2025, it is to protect federal agents who are being assaulted. Two protesters in Los Angeles are now charged with attempted murder for throwing Molotov cocktails at law enforcement. Assistant Homeland Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said, "These are the types of criminal illegal aliens that rioters are fighting to protect." She added, "And if you lay a hand on a law enforcement officer, you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law."

 

"Violence, What Violence?" – Despite round-the-clock coverage on multiple news channels, some are saying the protests are mostly peaceful. Rep. Maxine Waters (D) California said, "Even those who were out of step with what we were advocating, [which is] peaceful protest, did not create any violence," Waters said. She added, "Nobody was shot, nobody was killed. Get it through your head." But there is no end of footage of police vehicles being pelted with rocks and stores being looted. "The violence I've seen is disgusting," said Los Angeles Police Chief Jim McDonnell. He added, "Many come in from other places just to hurt people and cause havoc." No matter which side you take, people have to remember that the immigration problem is the main reason why Trump is back in the White House.

 

"Trump-Musk Make-Up!" – If President Richard Nixon and his nemesis, Russian President Leonid Brezhnev, could thaw the ice of the Cold War and make peace, then maybe President Trump and former DOGE director Elon Musk can do the same. After last week's nasty war of words, Musk posted on X, saying, "I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far." Trump told the New York Post, "I thought it was very nice that he did that." Can they ever work together again? Neither man has ruled that out. Musk has also had a post-feud phone call with Vice President JD Vance and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.

 

"Musk's Next Move?" – After the blowout between President Trump and former DOGE director Musk, many are wondering what might be next politically for the world's wealthiest man. Since Musk was born in South Africa, he's not eligible to be U.S. President. But he clearly could have other roles. Andrew Yang, who ran for president as a Democrat in 2020, is now promoting his own Forward Party in preparation for a possible third-party White House bid. One of the most significant failings of third parties over the years is their lack of money. Musk could change that with the stroke of a pen. In an interview with Politico, Yang said, "Elon has built world-class companies from nothing more than an idea multiple times, and in this instance, you have the vast majority of Americans who are hungry for a new approach."

 

"One Big, Beautiful Blow Up" – Last week, in the wake of the Trump-Musk feud, I predicted Trump's "big, beautiful" all-encompassing spending bill would go down to defeat. Although it has passed the House, there is significant GOP opposition in the Senate unless additional spending cuts are approved. Ultimately, I believe the Senate will pass a bill but with amendments to the House version. To become law, each chamber must approve the same bill. There are at least a dozen House Republicans who are signaling a no vote if the Senate version passes. Remember, the bill passed the House 215-to-214. There is no margin for error here, so I think the overall effort fails. This will force Congress to pass a dozen or so individual spending bills for items such as national defense and healthcare. Tax cuts could also be in jeopardy.

 

"Consequences of Crossing Trump" – Elon Musk probably realizes it's better to have Donald Trump as your ally and not your enemy. Take for example, the U.S. Senate race in Texas next year. Sen. John Cornyn (R) has been in office for nearly 23 years and is running for a fifth term. But Trump has decided to back Attorney General Ken Paxson in the 2026 Senate primary. Cornyn may have fallen out of favor with Trump after speaking against increasing tariffs on Mexican goods during Trump's first term. Cornyn said, "We're holding a gun to our own heads by doing this." It is worth noting that with Trump's endorsement and financial backing, Paxson now leads Cornyn by 17 points in the latest poll. With a divided GOP, Democrats could make a serious run for this seat.

 

"Biden's Health Questions" – Despite the discomfort of many Democrats, the House Oversight Committee is moving forward with an investigation into the health of former President Joe Biden. Four mid-level Biden aides have agreed to testify. They are Neera Tanden, who directed the Domestic Policy Council; Annie Tomasini, a former Deputy Chief of Staff; Ashley Williams, the former Deputy of Oval Office operations; and Anthony Bernal, a former Senior Advisor to First Lady Jill Biden. These are not household names, nor were they actually in charge of any agency. Still, they probably saw the president often enough to give an opinion on his mental acuity. President Biden's White House doctor has been subpoenaed, but so far hasn't complied.