RI Primary Countdown: Who the Candidates Need Votes From to Win
GoLocal News Team and Kate Nagle
RI Primary Countdown: Who the Candidates Need Votes From to Win
Rhode Island primaries are now just days away, and the campaigns are laser-focused on the biggest task at hand -- getting out the vote. What does each of the campaigns need to do win?
On Tuesday, GoLocal took at look past primary results to see if history could repeat itself. Now, experts and pundits weigh in on where this year's crop needs to get its votes.
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"On the Democratic side, the most interesting thing is the tremendous difference where the votes come from, as opposed to the general election," said veteran political pollster Victor Profughi. "Almost a quarter of the vote comes out of the city of Providence. So for instance, that's a big bunch of votes, right off the bat, in order for anyone to make inroads over Taveras -- they have have to hold down his margins in the city of Providence."
"The "older" cities, Central Falls, Pawtucket -- that's another 12% of the vote. The [Blackstone] Valley and suburban areas there represent a big chunk of the vote as well," continued Profughi. "That's where someone like Pell has to do well -- that plus the West Bay suburbs -- Cranston, Warwick, North Providence (which I throw in the mix as they don't fit elsewhere). That's another quarter of the vote."
"The big question is the unaffiliated voters -- and that probably will be what they usually do, and stay out," said Profughi. "But if they do get in, that would be more helpful to Block than Fung," said Profughi of the Republican gubernatorial primary.
Union Tactics
"The unions in this state are there as a function of contracts, and winning elections," said Layman. "I think oftentimes that order is reversed -- it makes their job easier moving forward."
"So I think for candidates, turning out their union support is the game changer. Remember while these are a block of people, they're not always controlled by leadership. But as for the leadership, they have so much vested in the outcome," continued Layman. "Look at the [NEA-RI head Bob] Walsh -- he took an unprecedented step by supporting Pell, and candidate who is untested, untried, and unqualified. [Walsh] is putting the prestige of the NEA behind him -- Pell's not the easiest candidate to support. I wonder how many pieces of communication -- letters, emails, everything -- each individual NEA member has received."
June Speakman, Profressor of Political Science at Roger Williams University, said that the cross-cutting support across sectors made the race difficult to predict this election.
"Support for all candidates is spread across the state and population groups. Pell's supporters are enthusiastic, and are being contacted frequently by every means necessary, which should help boost turnout for him. But Raimondo also has a very strong field operation, and continues to recruit canvassers to make it ever stronger over the next three days," said Speakman.
"In this race, more than any other, the traditional understanding of RI politics doesn't work for determining where supporters are geographically, ethnically, ideologically, or otherwise," said Speakman.
GOP Angles, and More
"The Democratic juggernaut has three people who are all fairly similar in many regards, but with the GOP, you've got two guys duking out over such a small group of people -- most of whom are strident and conservative," said Layman. "But [the candidates] can't be too strident, because they'll have to eat those words come September 10 if they make it to the general. Republicans tend to be more conscious in turning out the vote for prmaries -- I suspect there might be a higher percentage of registered Republican voters turning out in the primary."
As for the Lieutenant Governor race, Layman said he thought that the top ticket race could decide the one just below.
"It may very well be the position is decided by who gets to be the Governor -- if someone's voting for Pell, they're probably not voting for Mollis The theme of the Pell campaign is outsider, I'm new, I'm fresh, etc," said Layman. "The people voting for him are less likely to vote for Mollis...so they'd got for a McKee, who's also been in politics, but seems more of the outsider when pitted against Mollis."
RI 2014 Primaries - The Votes Needed to Win
Clay Pell
Race: Democratic Primary for RI Governor
With the firepower of the NEA-RI behind him, Pell will need to realize a big turnout from the teachers union -- and progressive supporters -- to propel him past frontrunner Raimondo, and Taveras, who he's s neck and neck with entering Tuesday. As for the disclosure Pell was a registered Republican, while there's no evidence it could sway undecideds, it was an 11th hour revelation of note.
Gina Raimondo
Race: Democratic Primary for RI Governor
It's all about GOTV for Raimondo. With a lead in the polls, Raimondo needs to get her base to the voting booths -- the pro-pension reformers (or some say pro-Wall Street contingent), her strong contingent of female supporters, and importantly, those who are in line with her socially liberal and fiscally more conservative platform.
Angel Taveras
Race: Democratic Primary for RI Governor
The Providence Mayor's numbers continued to level off in the waning weeks of the primary season. With a surging Pell, Taveras has to get his progressive base out -- and hope that he gets a strong showing in Providence, which represents a significant share of the Democratic primary vote. With Pell and Taveras battling it out for the liberal undecided vote, Taveras will need to realize gains in the zero-sum contest with Pell.
Ken Block
Race: Republican Primary for RI Governor
In terms of primary turnouts, as GoLocal reported, the GOP historically has been across the board over the years, in terms of who shows up at the polls in a given election. Block has got to be strategizing the most comprehensive GOTV effort of any of the gubernatorial candidates in order to ensure he gets numbers he needs -- including convincing independents to join the GOP ranks if just for the primary, in order to boost his chances for making it until the next test in November.
"Block has supporters all around the state, so it's not a particular bloc of voters, but rather his ability to mobilize his known supporters," said Speakman. "Because the numbers who vote in this primary are relatively small, every supporter mobilized counts."
Allan Fung
Race: Republican Primary for RI Governor
Cranston Mayor Allan Fung will need a strong showing in his home city as well as adjacent Warwick and surrounding areas, because as his wheelhouse, if he can't win there, he's done. While the two candidates have tried to out-Republican each other, both have taken their hits in terms of voting Democrat in the past.
"If turnout in the urban areas is high, Fung benefits," said Speakman.
Ralph Mollis
Race: Democratic Primary for RI Lt. Governor
The current Secretary of State and former Mayor of North Providence will depend on the party machinery -- and a strong turnout in his hometown of North Providence - to propel him past his opponents and into the general election. Watch to see how he fares in McKee's Cumberland and Blackstone Valley -- if he's able to snag a significant portion of that, that could ultimately put him ahead of the pack.
"Mollis has the voters who feel comfortable with familiar candidates," said Speakman.
Dan McKee
Race: Democratic Primary for RI Lt. Governor
Like his Mayoral counterpart in the Governor's race in Mayor Fung, McKee must win his home base first and foremost. He also needs a strong showing from the education reform and good government groups to give him enough of a groundswell to surge by Mollis. Unlike Mollis, McKee doesn't have any union support, so while he can't call on the sheer numbers unions can bring, he similarly attracts another subset of voters that are staunchly reform-minded.
"McKee has the benefit of a rush of last-minute ads," said Speakman.
Frank Ferri
Race: Democratic Primary for RI Lt. Governor
The most progressive of the group will need to tap that base -- hard - in order to have a shot at victory on September. Ferri will require a truly activist voter turnout in the Democratic primary that support him as the biggest "outsider" in race of all currently elected politicians, including himself.
"Ferri's got the progressives," said Speakman.
Seth Magaziner
Race: Democratic Primary for General Treasurer
The politically-connected newcomer will need to field a sizeable vote count in the state's urban voting precincts in order to prevail against one-time Treasurer Caprio, whose name recognition -- and previous stint at General Treasurer, belies his position in the polls. The undecideds will play a big role in this race, so Magaziner will need to prove that a newcomer -- with his limited experience -- is enough to surpass the prior position-holder.
"Magaziner has wide spread appeal because of his saturation ads and energetic campaign," said Speakman.
Frank Caprio
Race: Democratic Primary for General Treasurer
The former Treasurer needs to win big in the high-density areas, counting not only on his previous base of support, but more importantly, have the previously undecided voters show up and choose experience and track record over the new face who's promising a fresh start against politics-as-usual in the state.
"Caprio, like Mollis, benefits from being a known commodity, so voters who vote for names and faces they know will support Caprio," said Speakman. "His last-minute head shot ad is effective, but again, not to a particular block of voters."
Nellie Gorbea
Race: Democratic Primary for Secretary of State
The Deputy Secretary of State will need to count a big showing in the state's urban cores, as well as look for strong representation from women at the polls. A big question is how will Raimondo voters will go in the Secretary of State race. Will Gorbea be able to benefit from a down-ticket female draft -- and can she garner a big bump if the state's urban Latino vote is high -- are two factors to look for come Tuesday.
"No natural constituency for either of these candidates as well, although if Latinos vote as a bloc that obviously helps Gorbea," said Speakman. "But her appeal, and his, is not to one particular group."
Guillaume de Ramel
Race: Democratic Primary for Secretary of State
The one time candidate (who lost to Mollis in the Secretary of State primary in 2006), with deep pockets and name recognition, will have to vie with a political primary turnout that is usually more insider than outsider, which could gives hiis opponent a boost with name recognition. Providence will be a big battleground that is up for grabs in the Democratic primary for Secretary of State. And of course, taking his home base of Newport is needed as well.
"Here again, the ad war matters," said Speakman.
Jorge Elorza
Race: Democratic Primary for Providence Mayor
Can the former Housing Court Judge and Roger Williams University law professor cobble together the magical East Side - South Side combo that has proved kingmaker for his two predecessors? Expect to see Elorza make a strong showing on the East Side with Smiley's exit, but the southside is up for grabs. Elorza will need to turn the vote out especially strong there there -- and among Latinos in general -- to beat the ground game of Michael Solomon.
"Elorza benefits from high turnout among East Side progressives and Latinos," said Speakman.
Michael Solomon
Race: Democratic Primary for Providence Mayor
The City Council President has a machinery in place that should enable his camp to drive a strong voter turnout -- but the question will be whether he can ensure his folks will come to the polls. In addition, don't underestimate the power of Vincent "Buddy" Cianci to influence his supporters to jump in the Democratic primary to vote for the candidate he would prefer to see come November.
